Posts filed under “Technical Analysis”

BCA U.S. Equity Valuation Index

click for larger graphic
C1DEC13
Source: BCA Research

 

There seems to be an increasing concern that stocks have become wildly overvalued, especially in light of rising interest rates.

However, somewhat overvalued U.S. equity prices can continue to rise if price/earning multiples keep expanding.

 

Continues here

 

 

 

Category: Markets, Technical Analysis, Valuation

Gold Charts: 2000-Present, 2011, ’12, ’13

This is from a bigger project I am working on. I found it interesting that even thought Gold hit its peak in 2011, it did not have a negative year until 2013:   2000-2013 ~~~ 2011 2012 2013

Category: Gold & Precious Metals, Technical Analysis

Huprich: Wisdom Comes in the Smallest of Packages.

We previously published Art Hurpichs’ Market Truisms and Axioms back in 2011.  Art is a CMT with Day Hagan Asset Management, and he returns with an updated set of Stock Market Rules to Remember. Enjoy. ~~~ As you are reading this, we are in the process of moving our “youngest” to Virginia, as he prepares for…Read More

Category: Rules, Technical Analysis, Trading

Major Trend Analysis

Major Trend Analysis The 2000-2003 Bear Market The Major Trend Indicator (MTI-black line) is helpful in identifying when the market is vulnerable to an intermediate correction within a bull market, and the onset of a bear market. Ongoing bull markets are confirmed when the MTI climbs above the green line. When a rally fails to…Read More

Category: Markets, Technical Analysis, Think Tank

Advance Decline Line (Market Breadth) Says No Top Yet

Source: Chart courtesy of Carl Swenlin, Decision Point (annotations by Ritholtz)   One of the best ways to identify a market that is exhausted is to look for divergences between Breadth (i.e. the number of advancing equities versus the number of declining ones) and Price (i.e. new highs). That is a concept that Paul Desmond…Read More

Category: Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis

Merrill’s Secular Road Map Projects S&P 500 2300 in 2017

S&P 2300? Give It Four Years: Ritholtz Chart Source: BAML   It took more than 13 years, but the S&P 500 managed to eclipse its 2007 highs of 1576 earlier this year. This move takes it out of a long term trading range, and according to the Technical Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch,…Read More

Category: Cycles, Technical Analysis

Does Too Few Bears = Correction?

  What do you get when you cross an overbought market with too few bears? Often, that combination of complacency leads to a correction. So far, all it has produced is a lot of frustrated contrarian traders. Stephen Suttmeier, technical strategist at Merrill Lynch, put the situation into broader context in his monthly chart book…Read More

Category: Sentiment, Technical Analysis

What Indices Are At All Time & 2013 Highs?

A hedge fund manager friend had mentioned a research report that had noted the Dow, FTSE and Nikkei were at neither all time nor 2013 highs. Those there indices sounded like it a bit of cherry picking to me. So rather than succumb to the usual confirmation bias, I decided to see what major indexes…Read More

Category: Investing, Markets, Technical Analysis

Shiller: U.S. Stocks Are ‘Highly Priced’

Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio click for ginormous chart Source: Bloomberg     Robert J. Shiller, a co-winner of this year’s Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences says US stocks are expensive. They are the most expensive relative to earnings they have been in more than five years — since the lows follwoing the great collapse…Read More

Category: Technical Analysis, Valuation

90% Up Days Are Bullish

A 90% up day is bullish & the stats support a year-end rally click for giant table Source Merrill Lynch BA     On Thursday. we had a huge up day, with US markets gaining ~2%. Some folks credited the possibility of a debt ceiling deal, while others called it a low volume short covering…Read More

Category: Markets, Technical Analysis