Posts filed under “Technical Analysis”

Is This the End of the Secular Gold Bull?

In the beginning of this year, we looked at some of the trading errors commonly made by gold investors during this cycle. At the time, gold had fallen 38 percent from its 2011 peak. Yesterday, spot gold traded at less than $1,242 before closing slightly higher.

Gold is hitting new multiyear lows relative to the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. J.C. Parets, a technical analyst at Eagle Bay Capital, notes: “This downtrend has been very strong over the past 30 months and is hard to fight.”

he key support level, according to Parets, is $1,180. Spot silver has already broken its major support level of about $19. Parets adds that this break in silver could auger a further decline for gold as well, including the mining companies. If you must be long on a precious metal, Parets suggest you consider palladium as an alternative to gold or silver.  Continues here

Category: Cycles, Gold & Precious Metals, Markets, Technical Analysis

The VIX, Variance Premium and Stock Market Volatility

Category: Options, Technical Analysis, Think Tank, Trading

If Stocks Go Up, Must They Always Come Down?

What’s gone up won’t always come down Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, April 20 2014     U.S. equity markets made substantial gains last year. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index, the traditional benchmark for equities, was up 29.6 percent. Add in dividends, and it’s well over 30 percent. Technology and small-cap stocks did even better, with…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Investing, Technical Analysis, Valuation

Video: Signs of a Stock Market Top?

click for video
tops video

Source: Yahoo Finance

Category: Markets, Technical Analysis, Video

How Market Tops Get Made

With all the bubble chatter and talks of over-valued stock markets, I thought it was time to have a discussion with someone is the expert on the subject. In this case, that person would be Paul Desmond, chief strategist and President of Lowry’s Research. Desmond has spent the past five decades analyzing markets; his research…Read More

Category: Markets, Technical Analysis, Trading

S&P 500 Advance Decline Line Confirms New Highs

Source: BAML   Earlier today, we discussed why the new market highs are so bullish. Technicians like to look at determinants beyond prices to get a read on how a market’s internals are behaving. Stephen Suttmeier, a technical research analyst at Merrill Lynch & Co., points out that volume and breadth are just as important…Read More

Category: Markets, Technical Analysis

Market Highs Are Bullish, Not Bearish

With the reduction of tensions on the Black Sea, global markets rallied yesterday to multi-year highs. In the U.S., the S&P 500 closed at an all time high of 1873.91. Other markets set new multi-year or all-time highs as well. The world is breaking out. The day’s trades had barely closed, when the Johnny one-notes…Read More

Category: Investing, Markets, Technical Analysis

Buffett’s Favorite Indicator Is Worthless as a Buy/Sell Signal

Source: The Chart Store     Today I am going to make a somewhat nuanced argument about the dangers of indicators and metrics for valuing stocks. Let’s use arguably the greatest investor of all time, Warren Buffett, and what he describes as, “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.”…Read More

Category: Really, really bad calls, Technical Analysis, Valuation

Comparing Generational Lows: 1942, 1974 & 2009

Source: Monthly Chart Portfolio of Global Markets, Bank of America Merrill Lynch     It seems that every 30 years or so, markets make what can be described as a “Generational Low.” We can define this as a capitulatory bottom, one that might be caused by a variety of factors, but usually includes some combination…Read More

Category: Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis

Is The January Barometer Worth Following?

    As January goes, so goes the year?” That is the pithy version of the January Barometer. First identified by Yale Hirsch of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, it suggests a correlation between January’s performance and full-year returns. I am not a believer in the many omens Wall Street traders tend to obsess about, including…Read More

Category: Markets, Technical Analysis, Trading