Posts filed under “Technical Analysis”

Shiller: U.S. Stocks Are ‘Highly Priced’

Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio
click for ginormous chart
1015chart
Source: Bloomberg

 

 

Robert J. Shiller, a co-winner of this year’s Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences says US stocks are expensive. They are the most expensive relative to earnings they have been in more than five years — since the lows follwoing the great collapse of 2007-09.

Shiller’s CAPE ratio — the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio — compares the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index with companies’ average profits over the prior decade. The ratio ended last month at 23.7, the highest since January 2008, according to data available from his website.

Bloomberg notes that “the September ratio was lower than a peak of 27.5 in May 2007 — and even further below a record of 44.2, set in December 1999.”  Date for Shiller’s price-earnings figures go all the way back to 1881 (above chart 1900 – present).

Shiller made several other comments on equities:

“The stock market is rather highly priced. I worry that it might correct down.”

“I don’t think one should view it with alarm.”

“One could well — and probably should, in a diversified portfolio — invest in stocks.”

A far cry from his prior warnings of dot com stocks in 1999 and housing in 2006.

The CAPE ratio was developed by Shiller and Harvard University professor, John Y. Campbell.

 

 

Source:
Chart of the Day: Shiller Views U.S. Stocks as ‘Highly Priced’:
David Wilson
Bloomberg  2013-10-15

Category: Technical Analysis, Valuation

90% Up Days Are Bullish

A 90% up day is bullish & the stats support a year-end rally click for giant table Source Merrill Lynch BA     On Thursday. we had a huge up day, with US markets gaining ~2%. Some folks credited the possibility of a debt ceiling deal, while others called it a low volume short covering…Read More

Category: Markets, Technical Analysis

Bull Market Corrections, 2009-2013

click for ginormous chart Source: Investech     We are almost through September and despite its reputation for volatility, the month has seen strong upside and new bull market highs. The S&P500 lost “only” 4.6% in August, but based on the Sturm und Drang you are forgiven for assuming it was 3X that amount. As…Read More

Category: Cycles, Markets, Technical Analysis

Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators

You know I love these sorts of things: Dr. Ed Yardeni has a nice set of monster sentiment charts posted at his site. The link is Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment,. & Technical and its 20 pages of fun.   courtesy of Yardeni Research, Inc. September 17, 2013.

Category: Sentiment, Technical Analysis

Dow Theory or Buy and Hold?

Reading through the classic textbook, Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, last night I stumbled upon a stunning stat comparing the returns of a strategy using Dow Theory versus buy and hold. Using Dow Theory buy and sell signals would have turned an initial investment of $100 in 1897 into $492,597.38 by the end of 2010. …Read More

Category: Dividends, Technical Analysis

Shiller P/E Bottoms

Shiller P/E Bottoms Coincide with Major Lows, Downtrend Breaks Precede Rallies Click for ginormous chart Source: Merrill Lynch   Nice chart from Stephen Suttmeier & Co looking at how the Shiller P/E ratio compares to regular P/E at major lows, downtrend breaks, and before rallies: The good news is that secular trading ranges lead to…Read More

Category: Technical Analysis, Valuation

Sell Side Indicator: Wall St’s Improving Optimism

Click to enlarge Source: Merrill Lynch/BoA   This is an interesting chart: Improving Wall Street sentiment is still no where near the levels associated with excessive sentiment. Despite the ongoing rally — or perhaps because of it — we are now all the back to the levels enjoyed at the lows in March 2009. Merrill notes…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Sentiment, Technical Analysis

Year 2 in 4 Year Presidential Cycle

Click to enlarge Source: The Chart Store via All Star Charts   We have not looked at the Presidential Cycle in some time (See this, this and this from 2005). Regardless, it is something that people often fail to contextualize correctly: What the chart above shows is the historical average of the 4 year presidential…Read More

Category: Cycles, Investing, Politics, Technical Analysis

Bull! Rallies Without 20% Corrections

  click for larger table Source: Merrill Lynch Global Research,   Interesting look at bull markets that have gone on without a 20% correction (note this is within the context of a 20%+ cyclical rally). Merrill Lynch’s Global Research team note that 2 prior cyclical bull markets marked a transition from a secular bear market…Read More

Category: Cycles, Markets, Technical Analysis

Chart Attack: Mutual Fund Outflows

I forgot to publish this Bloomberg appearance from last week — here is the last segments, looking at monthly mutual fund outflows on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.”

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Category: Media, Technical Analysis, Video