Posts filed under “Technical Analysis”

S&P 500 Advance Decline Line Confirms New Highs


Source: BAML


Earlier today, we discussed why the new market highs are so bullish.

Technicians like to look at determinants beyond prices to get a read on how a market’s internals are behaving. Stephen Suttmeier, a technical research analyst at Merrill Lynch & Co., points out that volume and breadth are just as important as prices in understanding a market. Continues here

Category: Markets, Technical Analysis

Market Highs Are Bullish, Not Bearish

With the reduction of tensions on the Black Sea, global markets rallied yesterday to multi-year highs. In the U.S., the S&P 500 closed at an all time high of 1873.91. Other markets set new multi-year or all-time highs as well. The world is breaking out. The day’s trades had barely closed, when the Johnny one-notes…Read More

Category: Investing, Markets, Technical Analysis

Buffett’s Favorite Indicator Is Worthless as a Buy/Sell Signal

Source: The Chart Store     Today I am going to make a somewhat nuanced argument about the dangers of indicators and metrics for valuing stocks. Let’s use arguably the greatest investor of all time, Warren Buffett, and what he describes as, “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.”…Read More

Category: Really, really bad calls, Technical Analysis, Valuation

Comparing Generational Lows: 1942, 1974 & 2009

Source: Monthly Chart Portfolio of Global Markets, Bank of America Merrill Lynch     It seems that every 30 years or so, markets make what can be described as a “Generational Low.” We can define this as a capitulatory bottom, one that might be caused by a variety of factors, but usually includes some combination…Read More

Category: Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis

Is The January Barometer Worth Following?

    As January goes, so goes the year?” That is the pithy version of the January Barometer. First identified by Yale Hirsch of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, it suggests a correlation between January’s performance and full-year returns. I am not a believer in the many omens Wall Street traders tend to obsess about, including…Read More

Category: Markets, Technical Analysis, Trading

Friday Was a 90/90 Day. What That Means

Last week ended on quite the down note. Friday’s big selloff saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average drop 2 percent, or 318.2 points. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 2.1 percent (38.2 points), while Nasdaq Composite Index declined 2.2 percent (90.7 points). The technically significant issue was that Friday was a 90/90 day —…Read More

Category: Technical Analysis, Trading

The Bull Market Ends (or Is It Just a Correction?)

We awoke this morning to see futures deep in the red. Over the past two weeks, markets seem indecisive, unable to make much progress. Lots of days began with positive trades, only to roll over and fall into losses. Several days that began in the red closed negative, though usually off their worst levels. Last…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Investing, Technical Analysis, Trading

Over 400 Days Without a Correction

Source:Société Générale   From Société Générale strategist Andrew Lapthorne comes the chart above, and the observation that “It has been 408 days since the last 10% correction in the MSCI World index, the 8th longest period on record.” As the char above shows, this is just about the median length of time between corrections. The mere…Read More

Category: Digital Media, Markets, Technical Analysis

BCA U.S. Equity Valuation Index

click for larger graphic Source: BCA Research   There seems to be an increasing concern that stocks have become wildly overvalued, especially in light of rising interest rates. However, somewhat overvalued U.S. equity prices can continue to rise if price/earning multiples keep expanding.   Continues here      

Category: Markets, Technical Analysis, Valuation

Gold Charts: 2000-Present, 2011, ’12, ’13

This is from a bigger project I am working on. I found it interesting that even thought Gold hit its peak in 2011, it did not have a negative year until 2013:   2000-2013 ~~~ 2011 2012 2013

Category: Gold & Precious Metals, Technical Analysis