Posts filed under “Technical Analysis”
click for ginormous chart
Source: Kimble Charting
Awesome chart from Chris Kimble showing the Nikkei going back to 1982 — in particular, the downtrend that began in 1989 and still persists to this day.
Chris notes that Declines of 32% to 60% taken place at this level for the past 20 years!
One would normally expect a pullback and consolidation after a long move up to a major trendline, and under pre-Abenomics stimulus, that would be my highest probability outcome (pre-stimulus, I have no idea!).
The key here is if and when the Nikkei breaks through that trendline, it is likely the beginning of a longer term multi-year breakout. This is why we put on Japan exposure for clients much earlier this year.
Since it is a Friday before a 3 day holiday weekend, it is a good time to kick back and think about what the recent market action might (or might not) mean. • Most Day-to-day market action is noise, There is very little signal involved, with the vast majority of commentary simply after-the-fact rationalizations of…Read More
Renaissance Macro Research, May 14, 2013 Jeff deGraaf, technician extraordinaire (formerly of Lehman now at Renaissance Macro Research) makes an interesting observation about the heavily overbought markets. Last week, the S&P500 had ~93% of all stocks trading over their 200 day moving average. Normally, this degree of overbought should lead to a correction. As…Read More
I wish I could find a public link for this: Merrill Lynch just put out a very cool 60 page “primer” on Technical Analysis. It covers the core concepts behind technicals, including Trends, Relative Price Analysis, Price Momentum Indicators, Reversals, The importance of volume, Support and Resistance, Market Breadth Market Sentiment, The Fibonacci…Read More
Source: Chart of the Day The US stock markets continue to rally this week, with the S&P 500 trading up on the week. A longer term look at the S&P 500 since 2000 illustrates both the post dot com comeback and and the post-financial crisis rally. The latest leg of the post-financial crisis rally…Read More
Source: Doubleline, ZeroHedge The chart above has been making the rounds ever since Jeff Gundlach showed it in his most recent quarterly update. Call it a Rorschach test: It can be used to demonstrate pretty much whatever the author desires. I most commonly see it as “proof” that, but for the Fed’s QE program,…Read More
The meme of this morning was “Gold has already regained half of its losses.” That was the chatter I keep hearing. (The comment was blindly repeated by the usual suspects). As discussed earlier, I am now on all sorts of email lists informing me what a fantastic buying opportunity this drop was — but you…Read More
Butler|Philbrick|Gordillo and Associates have an interesting post called What the Bull Giveth, the Bear Taketh Away on the duration and magnitude of all bull and bear market periods in U.S. stocks since 1871. For the purpose of the study below, we examined the S&P 500 price series from Shiller’s publicly available database to understand the duration and magnitude of all…Read More
Click to enlarge Stephen Suttmeier of Merrill Lynch writes: “Given the recent pullback in bank stocks (2.5% down since reporting season started), we decided to take a look at how the bank indices stack up from a technical standpoint, given few fundamental catalysts that we see near term. Both the banks and the broader…Read More