Posts filed under “Technical Analysis”
The S&P 500 index is up 4.38% YTD. History suggests when the market’s gain of 4%+ in Q1, it often presages double-digit moves – up or down – in the S&P 500 for the entire year.
Double Digit Full Year Gains & Losses (1956-2005)
Mike Panzner, Rabo
Since 1956, the market has gained 4% in 27 out of 49 Q1s, or 55% of the time. When that has occurred, the full-year sees a greater-than-10% rise or fall on 20 of 27 occasions (74.07%). Median double-digit gains over 12 months were +25.77%. Median losses were 13.09%.
Quote of the Day:
“Behold, my son, with what little wisdom the world is ruled.”
-Count Axel Gustafsson Oxenstierna (1853-1654), from a 1648 letter to his son at the conclusion of the 30 Years War
In the past, I have warned against relying on the magazine cover indicator for specific companies. There are some very specific caveats on this here. The reason for this is that, in my experience, the Cover Indicator is useful for determining when large social phenomena are reaching an emotional crescendo. Oftentimes, emotions take over at…Read More