Posts filed under “Technical Analysis”

Chart of the Week: First Q 4% Year End Performance

The S&P 500 index is up 4.38% YTD. History suggests when the market’s gain of 4%+ in Q1, it often presages double-digit moves – up or down – in the S&P 500 for the entire year.
Double Digit Full Year Gains & Losses (1956-2005)


Source:  Mike Panzner, Rabo

Since 1956, the market has gained 4% in 27 out of 49 Q1s, or 55% of the time. When that has occurred, the full-year sees a greater-than-10% rise or fall on 20 of 27 occasions (74.07%). Median double-digit gains over 12 months were +25.77%. Median losses were 13.09%.


Random Items:

At long last, a new home sale slump

Offshoring: The Next Industrial Revolution?

M3, R.I.P.

Apple vs  Apple over core business

Crushing Small Innovators

Argentina’s Floating Icebergs Worry Farmers Who Fear Flooding

Caricatures of the prophet Muhammad in Danish newspapers



Quote of the Day: 

“Behold, my son, with what little wisdom the world is ruled.”
-Count Axel Gustafsson Oxenstierna (1853-1654), from a 1648 letter to his son at the conclusion of the 30 Years War

Category: Markets, Technical Analysis

Mid-East Stock Slide

Category: Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis

Barron’s: Buh-bye to Citibank Panic Euphoria Measure?

Category: Financial Press, Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis

Relative Outperformance: Low Quality Stocks

Category: Investing, Markets, Technical Analysis

Nasdaq Volume Decreasing

Category: Markets, Technical Analysis

The Single Company Magazine Cover Indicator

In the past, I have warned against relying on the magazine cover indicator for specific companies. There are some very specific caveats on this here. The reason for this is that, in my experience, the Cover Indicator is useful for determining when large social phenomena are reaching an emotional crescendo. Oftentimes, emotions take over at…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Psychology, Technical Analysis

When the trend is not your friend

Category: Politics, Technical Analysis

Watch the Block Trades

Category: Investing, Markets, Technical Analysis

Bad Moon Arising

Category: Economy, Investing, Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis, Trading

Chart of the Week: P/E Ratio: Cyclical Expansion and Contraction

Category: Technical Analysis