Posts filed under “Technical Analysis”
I will be interviewing Lowry’s terrific Technical Analyst, Paul Desmond later today. Its a Q&A which will get transcribed for publication.
I have a list of questions for him about his work on spotting market bottoms, which won the Charles Dow 2002 Market Technician’s Award. His most recent quantitative analysis is on how tops get formed, and compares the 1929 top with 14 more recent tops.
If anyone has a question for him, please use the comments section here to post them, and I will try to work them into to the discussion.
UPDATE: FEBRUARY 15, 2005 6:42AM
Thanks for all the suggestions! I was on the phone with Paul for over an hour. He is very eloquent and thoughtful, has a totally rigorous approach, and has made some truly important and impressive technical discoveries. And, I was smart enough to say very little and let him do most of the talking.
The tape is now being transcribed, and with a little luck should be out to tomorrow — I am totally jazzed about the way it came out.
Many thanks — you guys were tremendously helpful!
UPDATE: FEBRUARY 16, 2005 3:42PM
I just discovered this is a public document: An Exploration Of The Nature Of Bull Market Tops
Category: Technical Analysis
I got involved in a debate earlier at RealMoney – Columnist
Conversation, and wanted to pass it along here.
Pre-GDP (1/27/2006 7:31 AM EST), I wrote :
1) Technicals remain strong, and continue to be the driving force short
term. But economics look weak, and continue to be source of concern
2) Last Friday’s market actions was the market’s early warning sign.
Very heavy volume to the downside on a big selloff is never a good
thing. I interpret that day as a foundational crack of the cyclical
Bull market. Again, we are not looking for a 1987 situation, but rather
a Q1 topping out, and an ugly rest of the year.
3) Gold also looks toppy — it’s well overdue for a 10% correction. We
are short here, but would re-establish a long position in the 480-510
4) A 500 point day in Japan is too exuberant — it’s a sign of very
emotional trading. Historically, these sort of buying frenzies tend to
end badly. As such, we are lowering our multiyear price target on the
Nikkei down from 21,000 to 18,000. I would not be surprised to see this
lowered again before year’s end. And the Korean Topix, which I have
liked for some time, is geting crazed. Still plenty of upside, but
Norm Conley raised a legitimate question about this:
"It seems as if you are taking two outlier one-day moves in markets (one "up"
move, and one "down" move), and extrapolating that although they are
contradirectional, they both carry ominous portents."
My response was: