Posts filed under “Technical Analysis”

The Astonishingly Inefficient Market

One of the themes we keep coming back to is the so called efficient market hypothesis. We simply don’t buy into the near religous belief that markets are perfect, omniscient processors of information.

Instead, we find markets are eventually, mostly, kinda efficient. They very often miss what in hindsight is obvious. Its why prediction markets’ value are often limited.

Today’s example comes from a NYT article about ENRON, the biggest ever corporate bankruptcy in the United States.

>
click for enormo graphic

26enron_graphic_lg

graphic courtesy of NYT (for an even more enormous graph, click here)

>

Where, pray tell, is the efficiency there? The information that Enron was giant fraud was out, and yet the stock took over a year to collapse.

Efficient? P’shaw . . . 

>

Source:
Big Test Looms for Prosecutors at Enron Trial
KURT EICHENWALD
NYT, January 26, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/26/business/businessspecial3/26enron.html

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis

TA Infiltrating Everywhere!

Category: Technical Analysis

Bulls Looking for a Cinderella Scenario

Category: Economy, Investing, Markets, Technical Analysis

Dow 11,000

Category: Technical Analysis

New Column: CULT OF THE BEAR, part II

Category: Investing, Markets, Technical Analysis

Death of Volatility

Category: Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis, Trading

P/E vs S&P 500 (50 Years)

As promised, today brings us to the 4th in our series of charts: P/E vs S&P500 click for larger chart courtesy of Mike Panzner, Rabo Securities > I’ll get into the significance of what this means to the markets later, but for now, note where the P/E is over the median, and its impact on…Read More

Category: Earnings, Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis

2 Studies on the Flattening Yield Curve

Category: Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Inflation, Technical Analysis

Alaska is Melting . . .

It seems that the melting polar ice is becoming more of a concern to Alaskans than those of us in the lower 48. click for larger graphic courtesy of  Anchorage Daily News > Thank goodness there’s no Global Warming — imagine how much more of Alaska would be melting if there was! > See also:…Read More

Category: Science, Technical Analysis, UnScience

100 Year Dow Jones Industrials Chart

Have a look at this 100 year (actually, 105-Year) chart. I colored each “Market” appropriately — Green for Bull, and Red for Bear — to more clearly show what happens. Bull markets get ahead of themselves. At their ends, they tend towards excesses that take a very long while to recover from. When a long…Read More

Category: Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis