Posts filed under “Technology”

Do US Bonds Resemble Dot Com Stocks?

Over the past few months, I have been saying US Treasuries remind me of the dot com stocks circa 1997-98 in three ways:

1) You knew momentum was taking them (much) higher;
2) You knew it was going to end badly;
3) If you were honest, you admitted you had precisely zero idea when the day of reckoning would be.

I mentioned this at the Agora conference last month, and again on Fast Money last night and Bloomberg radio this morning.

What made the dot com situation so pernicious was that anyone who was judged on relative performance (i.e., Mutual fund managers), were all but forced into these names in order to keep up. Very few people — Buffett and Grantham come to mind — manged to both avoid both chasing these names and losing their client base.

Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup’s chief U.S. equity strategist, mentions something quite similar in the Bloomberg Chart of Day:


Chart courtesy of Bloomberg


Here is Dave Wilson:

“U.S. bonds may be just as vulnerable to a plunge as stocks were a decade ago, when the Internet bubble burst, according to Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup Inc.’s chief U.S. equity strategist.

The CHART OF THE DAY depicts how an index of monthly returns on 10-year Treasury notes since 2000, as compiled by Ryan Labs, compares with a total-return version of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index from 1990 through 2005. The latter gauge peaked in August 2000 and tumbled 38 percent in the next two years.

About $561 billion has flowed into bond funds since the beginning of last year, according to data from the Investment Company Institute. Stock funds, by contrast, had a $42 billion outflow during the period.”


U.S. Bonds Resemble Internet Bubble, Citi Says:
David Wilson
Bloomberg, 2010-08-17 13:02:46.389 GMT

Category: Contrary Indicators, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Psychology, Technology

Tech Gadgets vs Durable Goods

Its the first Thursday of the month, so we will be getting monthly sales from many retail stores throughout today. Related to that, I am fascinated by this story in the WSJ. Durable Goods, Furniture, Apparel are out; In: Laptops, iPads, iPods; the staycation crowd are buying Blu-ray video players and big plasma screen televisions….Read More

Category: Consumer Spending, Retail, Technology

Apple as Religious Experience

As a long time Apple fanboy going back to my 1990 Mac Classic, I find this brilliant: 1. a creation myth highlighting the counter-cultural origin and emergence of the Apple Mac as a transformative moment; 2. a hero myth presenting the Mac and its founder Jobs as saving its users from the corporate domination of…Read More

Category: Psychology, Technology

Wired: Disruptive By Design

I’ve attended Wired’s Disruptive By Design conferences, and they are always top notch. Here is the Conference Digital White Paper, with highlights from the WIRED Business Conference on June 14, at the Morgan Library in New York City. This White Paper features a summary of each session, where various business execs, including Howard Schultz, Frederick…Read More

Category: Technology, Think Tank

The Creators Project: ART+COM (Joachim Sauter)

Location: Berlin, Germany Profession: Artist, designer, filmmaker, professor Label: ART+COM Website: Notables: Founder of new media conglomerate ART+COM; installations such as the Kinetic Sculpture for BMW and the interactive Duality public exhibit in Tokyo

Category: Technology, Weekend

iPhone4 vs HTC Evo

Funny, NSFW video, made by a Best Buy employee. Best Buy fired him, because they said it shed a bad light on sales practices at Best Buy. They eventually offered him his job back. Perhaps they should “develop a “sense of humor.” >


The response is after the jump . . .

Read More

Category: Humor, Technology, Weekend

How Google Works

Weekend chart porn, via PPC Blog: >

Category: Digital Media, Technology

Bill G. vs Crazy Professor

The full versus series is here. Hat tip James B

Category: Humor, Technology, Weekend

Modern History of Communication

Dataviz provides us with our infoporn today, in the vein of the history of the telephonic info: >

Category: Digital Media, Technology

Geeks Blame the FCC for iPhone 4 Antenna Problems

AntennaSys, which specializes in “antenna design, integration and consulting” has the single best explanation of how cell phone antennas have evolved. It also is the best description of how this has impacted the iPhone 4.0 antennae issues — PC Mag, Gizmodo, Engadget — we have seen to date: “The FCC puts strict limits on the…Read More

Category: Technology