Posts filed under “Think Tank”

The Ins and Arounds in the U.S. Housing Market

Category: Think Tank

Taxing Top Earners: A Human Capital Perspective

Category: Taxes and Policy, Think Tank

Shilling: Big Banks Shift to Lower Gear

Big Banks Shift to Lower Gear
John Mauldin
July 30, 2014

 

 

For today’s Outside the Box, good friend Gary Shilling has sent along a very interesting analysis of the big banks. Gary knows a lot about what went down with the big banks during and after the Great Recession, and he tells the story well.

After the bailout of banks during the financial crisis, many wanted too-big-to-fail institutions to be broken up. Big banks resisted and pointed to their rebuilt capital, but regulators are responding with restraints that strip them of proprietary trading and other lucrative activities and push them towards spread lending and other traditional commercial banking businesses. The fiasco at Citigroup, JP Morgan’s London Whale, and BNP Paribas’s sanctions violations have spurred regulators as well.

Regulators are pressured to impose big fines and get guilty pleas for infractions. Meanwhile, big bank deleveraging proceeds. In this new climate, big banks are still profitable but at reduced levels and are moving toward utility and away from growth-stock status. The end of mortgage refinancing and weak security trading are also drags.

Banks are reacting by taking more risks, but regulators are concerned as long as depositors’ money is at risk. Still, regulators want to keep big banks financially sound and profitable enough to serve financial needs.

Gary’s analysis is extensive and thorough, but it’s only one part of his monthly Insight report. If you subscribe to Insight for $335 via email, you’ll receive a free copy of Gary Shilling’s full report on large banks, excerpted here, plus 13 monthly issues of Insight (for the price of 12), starting with their August 2014 report.

To subscribe, call them at 1-888-346-7444 or 973-467-0070 between 10 AM and 4 PM Eastern time or email insight@agaryshilling.com. Be sure to mention Outside the Box to get your free report on the big banks. (This offer is for new subscribers only.)

I am back from Whistler, British Columbia, where I spent the weekend at Louis Gave’s 40th birthday party. I went to Louis’s new home on the mountain, where you can ski down and take the gondola back up when you want to go home. Sunday afternoon Louis and I sat and talked for a few hours about the state of the world, interrupted now and again by the excitement of the children when a mother bear and cub walked through the yard. Later we saw another mother with two cubs.

The conversation drifted to the state of the investment industry in which we both work. It echoed similar conversations I have had over the world with other market participants. There is a growing feeling (admit it, you probably feel it too) that significant changes in the investment business are coming at us rather swiftly. Everywhere I go people are trying to figure out what those changes will entail. I’m not talking about just another bear market. In the same way, much of the music industry was sitting fat and happy in 2000 – they had little idea that Napster was just around the corner. And while Napster came and went, the way that people consume music today is significantly different than it was 10 or 15 years ago.

I have the feeling that the investment industry is getting ready to be hit by its equivalent of Napster. I’m not quite sure what that ultimately means, other than in 10 years (or maybe less) clients will be consuming their investment research and advice in a different manner. Old dogs are going to have to learn new tricks or be retired to the porch. And I am not ready to retire, so I will need to master a few new tricks, I guess. Of course, I would like to avoid Napster and go straight to Spotify. Then again, wouldn’t we all?

As Louis drove us back to the hotel – past more bears – he remarked that one does have to be careful around them. “Not really,” I said. “I have run with more than a few bears in my life and been OK.” He looked at me rather strangely, and I added. “Yeah, like Marc Faber, Gary Shilling, Rosie in his former life. Those were REAL bears. These are just cute animals.” He smiled and kept driving.

I will write my next note from Maine, where my son Trey and I will be going to fish for the 8th year in a row at what has become known as Camp Kotok. And though they tell me they are all around us there, the only bears I have seen are some of my fellow campers.

Your ready to lose the fishing contest again,

John Mauldin, Editor
Outside the Box

subscribers@mauldineconomics.com

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Big Banks Shift to Lower Gear

(Excerpted from the July 2014 edition of A. Gary Shilling’s INSIGHT)

In February 2007, the subprime mortgage bubble broke (Chart 1). Big British bank HSBC was forced to take a $1.8 billion writedown on its U.S. Household subprime lending unit’s bad loans, at the time an unprecedented amount, and subprime mortgage lender New Century reported disappointing fourth quarter results.

Quick Spreading

At the time, many housing bulls tried to convince us that the problem was limited to subprime loans that were made to people they, luckily, would never have to meet. But it spread to Wall Street. Bear Stearns was laden with subprime-related securities and when market lenders refused to finance the firm, the New York Fed provided $30 billion in short-term financing. On March 16, 2008, the firm merged with JP Morgan Chase bank in a stock swap worth $2 per share, only 7% of its value two days earlier and 1% of the $172 a share price for Bear Stearns in January 2007. Morgan bank paid $1 billion and the New York Fed was stuck with $29 billion.

Lehman Brothers was next. But this time, the Fed and the Bush Administration refused to bail out that firm and it filed for bankruptcy on September 15, 2008 when outside financing of its hugely leveraged portfolio disappeared and its net worth was a negative $129 billion.

Read More

Category: Think Tank

Edginess or Extrapolating The Unextrapolatable

Edginess. No, I am not referring to the one sought by my daughter by rolling her own and pushing boundaries (fortunately, for a parent, eschewing the tats, for now at least), but as in uneasiness, anxiety, disquietude, restiveness, worry, and an increasing sense of agitation of the type that George Soros wrote about in his…Read More

Category: Sentiment, Think Tank

Do Pharmacists Buy Bayer?

Category: Think Tank

Quantifying the Effects of U.S. Regime Change

All of the Countries which the U.S. “Regime Changed” – Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya – Have Descended into Brutal Chaos Since 2001, the U.S. has undertaken regime change in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. All 3 countries are now in chaos … and extremists are more in control than ever. Iraq In Iraq, hardcore Islamic jihadis…Read More

Category: Think Tank, War/Defense

QE Auctions of Treasury Bonds

Category: Bailouts, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Think Tank

Kotok Interview with ETF.com

An Interview with ETF.com David Kotok Article source: Alpha Think Tank – ETF.COM     We are forwarding an interview done with ETF.com. We thank them for permission to share it with our readers. Dennis Hudachek of ETF.com was kind enough to spend considerable time in this interview and to capture the comments quite accurately….Read More

Category: Think Tank

Margin Regulation and Volatility

Category: Think Tank

NSA Helps Crush Dissent at Home and Abroad

NSA Helps Saudi Arabia Crush Dissent … Like It Helps Crush Dissent at Home Numerous high-level NSA whistleblowers say that NSA spying is about crushing dissent and blackmailing opponents … not stopping terrorism. In addition, the NSA is giving the raw data on American citizens living in the U.S. to Israel.  That doesn’t seem to be a…Read More

Category: Think Tank, War/Defense