Posts filed under “MacroNotes”
After 18 years and 2 months I am leaving Miller Tabak to join Leon Cooperman and Steve Einhorn at I thank you for reading my notes and tolerating my occasional rants over the many years. I hope to remain in good touch.
My email for the next week after today will be pboockvar -at- yahoo.com.
Durable Goods orders in Nov were better than forecasted up .7% headline, 1.6% ex transports and 2.7% for non defense capital goods ex aircraft vs expectations of up .3%, down .2% and flat respectively. Also positively, Oct was revised higher. Putting into perspective though, headline orders are up just .5% y/o/y, flat ex transports and…Read More
Initial Jobless Claims totaled 361k, about in line with expectations and up from 344k last week. Unlike data seen post hurricane and seasonal issues with holiday shutdowns, the Labor Dept is saying today’s data point is clean. In order to smooth out the number from the issues stated, the 4 week average was 368k which…Read More
In response to the near 2 month high in the 10 yr Treasury yield, Bankrate.com said the average 30 yr mortgage rate rose to a 3 1/2 week high at 3.45%. It’s obviously still historically low but the move higher dilutes the Fed’s best attempts to lower it further. The day before the MBS driven…Read More
Retail Sales in Nov, a quite disruptive month to say the least in terms of the dense, large economy of the Northeast, rose .3% headline and was flat ex auto’s vs expectations of up .5% and flat. However, after taking out the 4% drop in gasoline sales, sales were up .8% m/o/m after a .5%…Read More
While yesterday’s QE4 announcement was widely expected, the actual post news rally lasted just one hour. Attention immediately shifts back to DC with discussions likely continuing past the scheduled recess of next Friday. The combination of more Fed action and what I see will be inevitably contractionary fiscal policy in 2013 on top of a…Read More
If I was able to ask Ben Bernanke a question at today’s press conference, I would ask this: What in your models make you believe that GDP growth can accelerate to a range of 2.3-3% in 2013, 3-3.5% in 2014 and 3-3.7% in 2015 from 1.7-1.8% in 2012 but somehow forecast that PCE inflation will…Read More
The FOMC voted 11-1 to embark on QE4 in 2013 when OT expires. This was very much as expected and the Fed’s balance sheet, which is below the record high earlier in the year (as more securities expired than they’ve purchased), will resume its ascent. Also of important note, the Fed took away its 2015…Read More
We’ll hear again from the 4th branch of government today, the Federal Reserve, to tell us their plan to replace the upcoming expiration of Smother the Yield Curve. Between Fed speeches and WSJ articles, it seems likely that we’ll get $45b per month of unsterilized Treasury purchases, thus bringing the monthly dose of electronically printed…Read More