Posts filed under “MacroNotes”

U of Michigan Confidence

The preliminary May U of Michigan confidence # was a touch higher than
expected at 67.9 and up from 65.1 in April. It’s now at the highest
level since Sept ’08 when it reached 70.3 before falling to 55.3 in Nov.
The survey is done via phone just within the last few days so it is
timely and I’m sure with the SPX around the 900 level and the banking
system somewhat stable in the post stress test world, they contributed
to the improvement. BUT, a gain was seen only in the Outlook component
(optimism reigns for the two factors I cited) as it rose 6 pts to the
highest level since Oct ’07. Current conditions, which measures how
people fell right now, fell 2 pts. One year inflation expectations fell
to 2.6% from 2.8% in April, notwithstanding the 22% rise in gasoline
prices since the end of April and 10%+ gain in many of the grains which
likely has showed up yet in retail prices.

Category: MacroNotes

CPI, IP, TIC data

April CPI was flat but core CPI was up .3%, .2% more than expected and its the 1st .3% reading since July ’08. Y/o/Y CPI fell .7% after falling .4% in Mar and its the biggest drop since ’55 but with the recent rise in energy and food prices, that trend will reverse. The y/o/y…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Location, location, location

Location, location, location doesn’t only apply to buying the right house or piece of real estate, it also means being near the few countries in the world that are showing growth. March Japanese core Machinery Orders fell 1.3% m/o/m, better than forecasts of a drop of 4.6% and foreign orders rose by a record 46.4%…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Claims, PPI data

Initial Claims totaled 637k, 27k more than expected and up from a revised 605k last week and Continuing Claims rose 202k from last week and was 160k higher than expected. The Labor Dept is blaming the auto industry for the jump in initial claims as it was those auto producing states that saw the biggest…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Green shoots with inflation?

In addition to the heated debate over whether the global economy is experiencing a bottoming process or is just an inventory head fake, the other discussion is whether the policies of the Fed and other central banks will eventually lead to a period of high inflation. Inflation will be a process not an event so…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Retail Sales

April Retail Sales were weaker than expected, falling .4% headline and .5% ex auto’s vs the consensus of flat and up .2%. Also, March was revised lower both headline and ex auto’s. Sales ex auto’s and gasoline fell .3%. Sales fell in furniture, electronics, food/beverages, department stores, and online. Gains were seen in restaurants/bars, sporting…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Mortgage Rates

According to Bankrate.com, the average 30 yr mortgage rate has risen to the highest level since March 25th at 5.04% and its why refi’s for the week fell to a two month low. Purchases rose a touch but still remain just 13% off its lows. The MBA said the average 30 yr rate was 4.76%…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Banks CDS, if you blinked…

Now that we are a few days removed from the release of the stress test results, let’s look at the markets view of the credit quality of the bigger institutions today versus where they were on Feb 10th, the day Geithner introduced the stress test. Interestingly, the CDS of each, except Citi, are near the…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Suckers Rally or Not?

Wading in on the debate of whether this is a bear market rally or not one has to start differentiating among groups that have long term secular fundamental headwinds and those that have long term secular tailwinds. Consumer deleveraging and the shrinking of bank balance sheets will be a multi year process that will keep…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Bernanke speaking on Jekyll Island, ironic?

With regards to the Fed, I’ve been highly critical of them over many years, believing that it was their unstable and easy money monetary policy that sowed the seeds for the massive credit bubble that has now popped. The FOMC’s policy response, led by Bernanke who was a key player in the Greenspan 1% fed…Read More

Category: MacroNotes