Posts filed under “MacroNotes”

Trade Deficit/imports, exports weak

While out online late yesterday, today’s paper version of the WSJ is reporting that the “Obama-GOP Cliff Talks Take Positive Step…Neither Side Gives Details, but Strict Moratorium on Public Comments is Considered Sign of Progress at Bargaining Table.” We’ll see but while we wait, small businesses are getting more and more fed up. The NFIB small business optimism index was not optimistic as the index fell sharply to 87.5 in Nov from 93.1, to the lowest since March ’10. Most glaring, those that Expect a Better Economy plummeted to -35% from +2%. The NFIB claims that 1mm small businesses will be hit by the hike in taxes on the top 2%. In Asia, China said bank loans in Nov totaled 523b yuan, bouncing a touch off the lowest since Sept ’11 but was a bit below expectations of 550b. Money supply growth was 13.9% y/o/y vs the est of 14.1%. In response to both data points, the Shanghai index fell .4% off its 4 week high. Business confidence in Australia fell to the lowest since Apr ’09 as they deal with a strong Aussie$ and China moderation. Indonesia left rates unchanged as expected. In Europe, investors are optimistic for the German economy over the next 6 mo’s but less so currently. The ZEW expectations component rose to +6.9 from -15.7, positive for the 1st time since May but the Current situation was +5.7 vs +5.4 (lowest since June ’10), slightly below the est of +6.0. Spain sold 12 and 18 mo bills that went well as 3.89b euros were sold vs their max target of 3.5b. Yields in Spain and Italy are lower after yesterday’s move up. Greek stocks are up 1.6% and the 10 yr bond is at a new high of .44 as more signs point to Greece meeting the 30b euro buyback target level.

Category: MacroNotes

Political dysfunction in Italy is common/China/DC

If there is one certainty in Italian politics, it’s uncertainty. As the US has had just 12 President’s since WWII, Italy has had 26 different PM’s. The difference now though of course is the fragile state of the country’s finances where consistent policy is most desired. With the Monti resignation announcement which will take place…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Student and auto loans still driving consumer credit gains

In the just reported consumer credit data released by the Fed, revolving credit outstanding on a seasonally adjusted basis rose $3.4b m/o/m to $857.6b. That is the highest since May but looking at a longer term chart reflects more bouncing along the bottom. While nominal GDP growth is at new highs, revolving credit outstanding remains…Read More

Category: MacroNotes, Think Tank

Confidence falls sharply, DC patience thin?

UoM Consumer Confidence fell sharply in Dec to 74.5 from 82.7 in Nov and below expectations of 82. It’s a 4 month low and is down from the highest level since Sept ’07. Most of the drop came in the Outlook component which fell by 13 pts to the lowest of the year while Current…Read More

Category: MacroNotes, Think Tank

Labor Dept said little impact, ADP said big

Nov Payrolls gained 146k, 147k of which was in the private sector. Expectations were for 85k and 90k respectively. The two prior months were revised down by 49k mostly in the public sector. The main difference between today’s # and ADP was the viewpoint of each on the impact of Hurricane Sandy. The Labor Dept…Read More

Category: MacroNotes


Both the BoE and ECB left policy unchanged as expected. Impressively in light of all the economic concerns in Europe, the German DAX today is rallying to the highest level since May ’11 and the CAC is at the best level since Aug ’11. German factory orders in Oct rose 3.9% m/o/m, well above the…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

ADP job’s report gets cut by hurricane

The supposedly new and improved ADP employment report said private sector job gains in Nov totaled 118k, 7k less than expected and down from 157k in Oct. The hurricane though had a large influence on the number as ADP estimates that 86k were lost due to it with the manufacturing, retailing, leisure and hospitality and…Read More

Category: MacroNotes, Think Tank


A stock market that has performed as bad as Spain in 2012, finally got some love overnight. The Shanghai index rallied 2.9% to a 3 week high just two days after closing at the lowest level since Jan ’09. The Hang Seng index was also up 2.2% to close at the best level since Aug…Read More

Category: MacroNotes, Think Tank

Fiscal negotiations/RBA/other

Not surprisingly, the more detailed Boehner proposal presented to the White House was rejected and the game goes on. Imagine what our Founding Fathers would think of this process after they created a document with specific enumerated powers. I digress to monetary policy where the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates by 25 bps…Read More

Category: MacroNotes, Think Tank, Uncategorized

ISM mfr’g back below 50

The ISM mfr’g index in Nov is back below 50 at 49.5, below expectations of 51.4 and down from 51.7 in Oct. It’s the lowest since July 09 and follows the two prior months above 50 which followed the three months before that which were slightly below. New Orders softened by almost 4 pts to…Read More

Category: MacroNotes, Think Tank