Posts filed under “MacroNotes”

Fed’s Loan Survey

The Fed’s quarterly senior loan officer survey revealed that 39.7% of
banks tightened credit standards for businesses, 5.7% considerably and
34% somewhat with the balance unchanged. This is down from a total of
64.1% of banks that tightened standards in the previous quarter and
83.6% in the one before. No bank eased standards and none has eased
since July ’07. Less bad comes into play again. With the consumer, the
inevitable driver of the ‘Shoots’ bus, whether it’s green or a shade of
brown, 65% of banks, up from 45%, said they lowered credit limits to
either new or existing credit card customers. About 55% of the banks,
somewhat more than the previous quarter, said they raised minimum
required credit scores on credit card accounts. About 20% of banks saw
weaker demand for consumer loans, “substantially less” than in the Jan
survey.

Category: MacroNotes

Pending Home Sales

March Pending Home Sales, a measure of contract signings of existing home sales, rose 3.2% m/o/m vs expectations of flat. The gains were in the high foreclosure areas of the South and West as the Northeast and Midwest saw declines. The average 30 yr mortgage rate according to the MBA was 5.10% in Feb and…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

morning note/Choo Choo

China today is again proving that it’s the most important country in the world right now in terms of being the engine of global growth that can pull the other train cars with it after the CLSA mfr’g PMI index rose above 50 for the 1st time since July (due to the still ongoing massive…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

UoM

The final April U of M confidence # was a better than expected 65.1, up from 61.9 in the preliminary reading and 57.3 in March. Since the final figure consists of 40% of the preliminary reading, it implies that confidence improved noticeably in just the last two weeks but most of that gain was in…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

ISM

Apr ISM was, you guessed it, less bad, coming in at 40.1 up from 36.3 in Mar and vs estimates of 38.4. It’s the highest level since the Sept reading of 43.4 but is still of course 10 pts below the 50 level and as ISM said “while this is a big step forward, there…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

China, UK PMI/stress test

With China the most important country in the world right now IMO, April China PMI rose to 53.5 from 52.4 and is at the highest level since May ’08. This data point reflects economic activity among state owned businesses and is different than the CLSA mfr’g PMI that comes out next week that is private…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

morning note/As Axl Rose sang, Where do we go now?

As we begin a new month with the S&P’s sitting 31% off its lows, here’s a quick view of the factors that got us here to help give us clues about where we’re going. Slowing deterioration in economic activity, with a modest bounceback in consumer spending and a huge drawdown in inventories giving hope of…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Chicago PMI

Joining the less bad party that other regional surveys have experienced, the April Chicago PMI was 5 pts better than expected at 40.1, up from 31.4 in March, which was the worst since 1980. 50 is the breakeven between expansion and contraction so we are still clearly in recession territory but the slowing pace of…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

morning note/green shoots vs higher interest rates

Asian stocks powered higher overnight, especially in Taiwan which rose almost 7% after their govt said they will allow China to invest in their mfr’g co’s. Japan rose about 4% after March IP rose twice what was expected. The rally spilled over into Europe after some good earnings reports and UK consumer confidence rose to…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

FOMC/Battle Royale

With respect to quantitative easing, the FOMC decided to sit on their hands and let the purchase plan of $1.25 trillion MBS, agency debt of $200b and longer term treasuries of $300b stand as is and will continue the programs over the next few months. As a result, bond yields have busted out to the…Read More

Category: MacroNotes