Posts filed under “MacroNotes”

Creeping rise in inflation expectations

Implied inflation expectations continue to rise today in the 10 year
TIPS and are now up 40 bps from the day before the March FOMC meeting.
While it’s still at a relatively low level at 1.55% as we should be
thankful for just 1.55% inflation over the next 10 years, it is the
highest level since Sept 30 ’08 when the CRB index was almost 60%
higher. Thus, the FOMC today should pay attention and I hope they do in
deciding any changes they may make today to their asset purchase plan,
particularly with US Treasuries.

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Category: MacroNotes


Real Q1 GDP contracted by a greater than expected 6.1% vs forecasts of -4.7% but the components were very mixed. Personal spending rose 2.2%, greater than estimates of .9% but Inventories subtracted 2.8% off GDP, falling by $103.7b and Govt spending took off an uncharacteristic .8% from GDP. Trade added about 2% points. Taking out…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Fed’s headed for a showdown with the bond market

As the FOMC meets for a 2nd day, they will likely take comfort in what has occurred since their last meeting where they took the daring move of deciding to buy treasuries to manipulate the level of longer term interest rates. After rallying $70 the day of that meeting, gold has given it all back,…Read More

Category: MacroNotes


While commodity prices have sold off the past 2 days due to concerns with the impact that swine flu will have on global growth, the implied inflation rate in the 10 yr TIPS today has risen to the highest level since early Oct at 1.51%. The dynamics impacting the bond market remain the concerns with…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

consumer confidence

The April Conference Board Consumer Confidence # was a much better than expected 39.2, almost 10 pts better than forecasted and up from a revised 26.9 in March. It’s the highest level since Nov ’08 and the questionnaire was likely filled out a few weeks ago but definitely reflects the sense of a slowdown in…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

S&P/CaseShiller home price index

The Feb S&P/CaseShiller 20 city home price index fell 18.63% y/o/y, a touch better than expected but with a slight downward revision to Jan to a fall of 19%. The index is now down 30.7% from its record high in July ’06. Both on a m/o/m and y/o/y basis, all 20 cities saw declines. The…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

1st poli sci, now pre-med

After having to get an advanced degree over the past year in political science to better understand the US Govt’s desire to encroach to an extraordinary extent in private business (they’ll own 50% of GM if bondholders agree, BoA is on the chopping block to convert govt preferred stock to common and will join Citi…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Swine Flu Comments

As if the global economy, let alone the world itself, needed another thing to worry about, swine flu comes along. Having lived through the experience of SARS 6 years ago, the Hang Seng and Shanghai stock markets were hard hit. Economically sensitive commodities such as crude and copper are also weak. The Mexican peso is…Read More

Category: BP Cafe, MacroNotes, Markets, Think Tank

Green Shoots with a caveat

The ‘Green Shoots’ of recovery that has been the favorite two words of many of late has been mostly predicated on the dramatic drop seen in inventories over the past few months and the subsequent inventory replenishment process that may help to stabilize the economy. The CEO of TXN in last nights earnings press release…Read More

Category: BP Cafe, MacroNotes, Think Tank