Posts filed under “MacroNotes”
China’s economy continues to show signs of stabilizing as the private sector weighted HSBC flash mfr’g PMI rose to 50.4 in Nov from 49.5 in Oct. It’s the 1st time since Oct ’11 above 50 but the Shanghai index is actually down a touch over the past two days with the number reported Wed night. Taiwan’s stock market though rallied 3.1% as their Finance Minister was quoted as saying that funds either fully or partially owned by the state should buy stocks. While closed today, the Nikkei yesterday rallied another 1.5%, taking its 7 day move to up 8.1% to the best close since early May on the weaker yen theme.
In Europe yesterday, the mfr’g and services composite index for the region stabilized at near the lowest level since June ’09 at 45.8 in Nov vs 45.7 in Oct. Today, the German IFO business confidence # unexpectedly rose to 101.4 vs 100 in Oct and was better than the estimate of 99.5. It is now back to where it was in Sept and the euro is at a 3 week high vs the US$ in response. French business confidence also improved to 88 from 85 which was the weakest since Aug ’09. On Greece, talks will continue into next week.
Back home, the WSJ is quoting voting member Williams that he’ll basically be voting for QE4 as he thinks the market expects it and if they didn’t, “it would push rates up and cause financial conditions to be a little less supportive of growth.” Based on this thought, we may go to QE10. The Fed also seems to want to wait until after inflation gets above their target to reevaluate its policy and ECB member Weidmann said this today, “flirt with inflation and you’ll end up married to it.”
Happy anniversary Helicopter Ben! It was 10 years ago today that Mr. Bernanke gave his speech titled “Deflation: Making Sure ‘It’ Doesn’t Happen Here” as at the time some “expressed concern that we may soon face a new problem, the danger of deflation or falling prices” as reported inflation rates were low at the time…Read More
With mortgage rates still historically low but that have stopped going lower, the weekly MBA data was mixed. Refi apps fell 3.2% after rising 13.1% in the week prior but remains 6.5% below the average level since the Fed started QE3. Purchase apps though rose by 2.7% after an 11% jump last week and the…Read More
Ben Bernanke’s speech today is nothing that is market moving. He talks about the sluggish recovery and gives his opinions of the reasons why. He is happy with 2% inflation per year over the past 3 years even though average hourly earnings are up about 1.7% on average during this time (which is the part…Read More
Housing continues to improve as Oct Starts totaled 894k, 54k more than expected, the most since July ’08 and up from a revised 863k in Sept (from 872k). The improvement m/o/m though was all in multi family as starts there rose to 300k from 268k. Single family starts fell 1k but after jumping by 57k…Read More
Existing Home Sales in Oct totaled 4.79mm, 50k more than expected but Sept was revised down by 60k to 4.69mm. The Oct annualized run rate is the 2nd highest (Aug at 4.83 was highest) since the tax credit influenced months in Apr and May ’10. Sales were seen for both single family and condos/co-ops and…Read More
“You can’t always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you just might find you get what you need.” I couldn’t help envisioning Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, John Boehner and Mitch McConnell on a park bench singing this song together over the weekend as they negotiate a tax and spending deal and ahead…Read More
For just the 2nd month since mid 2009, foreigners sold US Treasuries on a net basis according to the just released TIC data. The main sellers though may have been hedge funds rather than central banks as the biggest region of selling came from the Caribbean where many funds are housed. It coincided with the…Read More
In terms of the major issue of the day, that being fiscal, today’s the most important day of the week as finally the President will have a coffee talk with both Republican and Democratic leaders. While both sides are now using the balance word, the rhetoric seems to have only been on the tax side…Read More