Posts filed under “MacroNotes”

Safe Travels for Thanksgiving

Category: MacroNotes, Think Tank

Happy Anniversary Helicopter Ben!

Happy anniversary Helicopter Ben! It was 10 years ago today that Mr. Bernanke gave his speech titled “Deflation: Making Sure ‘It’ Doesn’t Happen Here” as at the time some “expressed concern that we may soon face a new problem, the danger of deflation or falling prices” as reported inflation rates were low at the time…Read More

Category: Federal Reserve, Inflation, MacroNotes, Think Tank


With mortgage rates still historically low but that have stopped going lower, the weekly MBA data was mixed. Refi apps fell 3.2% after rising 13.1% in the week prior but remains 6.5% below the average level since the Fed started QE3. Purchase apps though rose by 2.7% after an 11% jump last week and the…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Bernanke speaks

Ben Bernanke’s speech today is nothing that is market moving. He talks about the sluggish recovery and gives his opinions of the reasons why. He is happy with 2% inflation per year over the past 3 years even though average hourly earnings are up about 1.7% on average during this time (which is the part…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Housing continues to improve

Housing continues to improve as Oct Starts totaled 894k, 54k more than expected, the most since July ’08 and up from a revised 863k in Sept (from 872k). The improvement m/o/m though was all in multi family as starts there rose to 300k from 268k. Single family starts fell 1k but after jumping by 57k…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Existing home sales and builder sentiment

Existing Home Sales in Oct totaled 4.79mm, 50k more than expected but Sept was revised down by 60k to 4.69mm. The Oct annualized run rate is the 2nd highest (Aug at 4.83 was highest) since the tax credit influenced months in Apr and May ’10. Sales were seen for both single family and condos/co-ops and…Read More

Category: MacroNotes, Real Estate, Think Tank

“You can’t always get what you want…”

“You can’t always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you just might find you get what you need.” I couldn’t help envisioning Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, John Boehner and Mitch McConnell on a park bench singing this song together over the weekend as they negotiate a tax and spending deal and ahead…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Japan closing in on China as largest holder of US debt

For just the 2nd month since mid 2009, foreigners sold US Treasuries on a net basis according to the just released TIC data. The main sellers though may have been hedge funds rather than central banks as the biggest region of selling came from the Caribbean where many funds are housed. It coincided with the…Read More

Category: MacroNotes, Think Tank

Kumbaya?/Nikkei spikes again/Shanghai drops again

In terms of the major issue of the day, that being fiscal, today’s the most important day of the week as finally the President will have a coffee talk with both Republican and Democratic leaders. While both sides are now using the balance word, the rhetoric seems to have only been on the tax side…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

CPI benign? Not for many.

Consumer inflation in Oct rose .1% headline m/o/m and .2% core. The headline figure was in line with estimates but the core rate was .1 of a % higher. The y/o/y gain headline is 2.2%, the highest since April and is above the 1.6% avg hourly earnings gain seen in Oct and is a clear…Read More

Category: MacroNotes