Posts filed under “Think Tank”

A very unscientific measure of US$ sentiment

With the US$ counter trend (I emphasize counter trend as secular decline will continue again at some point) rally apparently underway, which I believe began on Nov 17th when Bernanke uttered the word ‘dollar’ in terms of its impact on commodity prices and thus inflation, here is a very unscientific method of measuring dollar bearishness and how extreme sentiment got. Using Google search, ‘dollar bull’ comes up 6.6mm times while ‘dollar bear’ has 11.6mm results.

Category: MacroNotes

Comparing Gold Rallies

Interesting comparisons between Gold rallies over the past 3 years. > Graphic via The Chart Store: > The Dollar Index obviously impacts the commodity groups:

Category: Currency, Gold & Precious Metals, Think Tank

Dec UoM rises but it did last Dec too, that time of the yr?

The first Dec UoM confidence figure was much better than expected at 73.4 vs the estimate of 68.8 and is up from 67.4 in Nov. It’s just shy of the highest since Jan ’08 and with respect to holiday sales, the improvement couldn’t come at a better time. The gain was mostly led by the…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Household Net Worth

> James Bianco has run Bianco Research out of Chicago since November 1990. He has been producing fixed income commentaries with a circulation of hundreds of portfolio managers and traders. Jim’s commentaries have a special emphasis on: money flow characteristics of primary dealers, mutual funds, hedge funds, futures traders, banks, and institutional investors. Prior to…Read More

Category: Think Tank

Morning review

Greek 10 yr bonds are rallying for a 2nd day after German Chancellor Merkel said Greece will deal with their budget problems and that the Euro region won’t abandon them. The yield is down 9 bps and has fallen 25 bps in the past two days. This lift to European markets follows data in China…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

The Q3 US balance sheet

The Q3 US balance sheet is out via the Fed’s Flow of Funds statement and the debt decline continues but modestly because of the growing government debt that is delaying the overall progress. At the household level, household debt (home mortgages + consumer credit) as a % of disposable income fell to 117% from 118%…Read More

Category: MacroNotes


David A. Rosenberg is Chief Economist & Strategist at Gluskin Sheff, with a focus on providing a top-down perspective to the Firm’s investment process. Mr. Rosenberg has earned both Bachelor of Arts and Master of Arts degrees in Economics from the University of Toronto. Prior to joining Gluskin Sheff, David was Chief North American Economist…Read More

Category: Think Tank

Morning stuff

Initial Jobless Claims totaled 474k, 19k above estimates and up from 457k last week. Continuing claims, which capture 26 weeks of benefit collection, were 293k below forecasts and down by 303k from last week BUT Emergency Unemployment Compensation that runs past this rose by 327k. Extended Benefits that go up to 99 weeks in some…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

10 year note auction weak

The reopening of the Nov 10 yr note auction was on the weak side as the yield was about 4.5 bps above the when issued and the bid to cover, while in line with the average seen this year, is the smallest since Aug at 2.62. Also, 32.9% going to indirect bidders is below the…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

S&P 500 Index Review

S&P 500 Index (SPX) – Weekly Chart Courtesy of Fusion Analytics > As seen above the S&P 500 Index still remains in an up trending wedge (green lines) however for the last two weeks the index has stalled under a secondary downtrend line (red line # 2). While two weeks of stalling at resistance is…Read More

Category: Technical Analysis, Think Tank, Trading