Posts filed under “Think Tank”

China remains the straw that stirs the global economic drink

The most important country in the world, China, in terms of lighting the match under global economic growth had a slew of economic data overnight and the positive reaction sent the Shanghai index to a 3 week high. Most importantly, August Bank loans totaled 410.4b Yuan, about 90b more than expected and through 8 months this year it has totaled 8.1T, well above the 4.9T seen in all of 2008 but the pace of growth is slowing as government managing of potential overheating takes on greater focus. Industrial Production also rose more than estimated but retail sales and fixed asset investment were about in line. The trade surplus was higher than expected but both imports and exports fell more than the consensus. The overall good news in China is sending the Euro higher to a fresh one year high and up for a 6th day vs the $ as the German economy in particular depends on more than 40% of its GDP on exports with a big chunk going to Asia.

Category: MacroNotes

30 year bond auction

The 30 year bond auction was solid as the yield at 4.238% was below expectations of 4.27-4.29%. Also, the bid to cover at 2.92 is the highest since the 30 year was reintroduced in Feb ’06 and well above the average over the past year of 2.32. Indirect bidders totaled 46.5%, slightly below the previous…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Bill King: Bond Divergence

> During European trading on Wednesday, the dollar fell to a new ’09 low. This produced a SPU rally into the NYSE open. US traders then poured into stocks on a ‘cash is trash’ rally. But that was it for the rally. As we have asserted for months the major prop under stocks is dollar…Read More

Category: Think Tank

Morning stuff

The July Trade Deficit totaled $32b, almost $5b more than expected and is up from an upwardly revised $27.5b in June. It’s the highest since Jan and was due to a bigger than expected rise in imports which were up 4.7% while exports were up just 2.2%. Imports were in part boosted by a 7.6%…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Questions For Us All

Good Evening: Despite some mid day misgivings, U.S. stocks rose a fourth straight day on Wednesday. Mirroring the back and forth nature of the day, both the corporate and economic news was mixed, with the Fed’s Beige Book release garnering most of the attention. The dollar, too, was behind some of the volatility, since the…Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank

The New Auto Industry Breakdown

Nice Mint chart, via Jess Backman of WallStats: > click for 3X larger graphic

Category: Bailouts, Think Tank

Fed’s Beige Book

The Beige Book describes economic activity as stabilizing and an uptick from the July report that called ‘economic weakness moderating.’ With respect to overall activity, 5 districts saw signs of improvement, Dallas said activity has ‘firmed’, while 5 said things are stable or showing signs of stabilization. St. Louis said the pace of decline appeared…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

The S&P’s in non US$ terms

Yesterday I quantified the S&P 500 results going back to Sept ’98 in gold terms and its 70% decline. Let’s look at the S&P’s over the same time frame for overseas investors who have currency exposure. In US$’s, the S&P 500 over the past 11 years is up 3% in total (not including dividends) but…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Evans on inflation

Unfortunately the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s website hasn’t posted Evans speech titled the “Great Inflation Debate” even though he’s already given it this morning but I’ll rely on newswire quotes to give you a gist of what he said. In response to the predominant inflation concern resulting from a doubling of the monetary base…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Five Reasons to Avoid the Gold Rush

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson presents the counterpoint for the gold argument: ~~~ The reasons why one should sell the cat, pawn the mother-in-law, and use the proceeds to buy gold are well known: the Fed is printing money faster than you can read this, which will result in inflation; the government is borrowing like a drunken…Read More

Category: Think Tank