Posts filed under “Think Tank”
FOMC Minutes (September)
Minutes from September’s meeting will reveal a wide range of views on the FOMC regarding the timing of the central bank’s withdrawal of the monetary stimulus. Some policymakers have lobbied for the central bank to begin tightening aggressively soon. Others, including Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, appear to want to proceed with caution.
Discussion of the Fed’s exit strategy will be interesting. At the September meeting, the FOMC decided to stretch its purchases of agency and mortgage-backed securities to March of next year. The Fed has already spent more than half the $1.45 trillion committed to these purchases. While it will be absent in the minutes, the Fed may have to increase its commitment in order to keep mortgage rates from rising and slowing improvement in the housing market, especially if the first-time homebuyer tax credit is not extended.
The minutes may show a discussion of whether or not to extend the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, which is scheduled to expire at year’s end. Expect the central bank will eventually extend the program into next year as a safety net for commercial real estate. One caveat is that this program operates under Section 13.3 of the Federal Reserve Act, which will require it to be closed when conditions are no longer “unusual and exigent.”
Like the post-meeting statement, the minutes will have a dovish tone. Most policymakers don’t appear concerned about inflation, although they are watching expectations closely: If these begin to rise, the central bank may be forced to tighten. The core PCE, the central bank’s preferred measure of inflation, is noticeably below the Fed’s soft target of 2%.
Core inflation is a lagging indicator, typically slowing even after growth resumes. Expect the core PCE to weaken through the remainder of this year, before bottoming in mid-2010. This would be the slowest growth in the core PCE in the past 50 years. The minutes may further acknowledge recent improvement in the economy, hinting that the recession is over, although the recovery’s strength remains questionable. The equity arena will likely feed off of this in the near-term with a weak to neutral tone.
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August Business Inventories still reflect the drag from inventories as they fell 1.5% vs expectations of a drop of 1%. Because sales rose by 1%, the inventory to sales ratio fell to 1.33 from 1.36, the lowest since August ’08 but it sets the backdrop for an improvement in manufacturing into year end as the…Read More
. . . of Rightly Conducting the Reason and Seeking Truth in Contemporary Economies & Markets, with sincerest apologies to the memory of Rene Descartes.
Seventeenth century medicine, Moliere observed, was a field where most men died of their remedies and not of their diseases. So too, twenty-first century interventionist monetary policy seems to kill more wealth than if recessions were left alone to run their course. Instead of bloodletting, our “physicians” pump us full of liquidity until we explode, and then pump more into us as we lay gushing.
In the US our chief surgeon, the Fed, has been able to operate unilaterally, virtually unencumbered by Congressional restrictions or mandates, so that Wall Street banks (its literal owners and first constituency) don’t die. And the Fed needn’t worry about claims of malpractice because, as we now see, when push comes to shove its insurance carrier is the US Treasury, which is another way of saying the same taxpayers that lay bleeding.
Transitive properties still hold: if A equals B and B equals C, then A must equal C. Applied here: if US taxpayers (A) fund the US Treasury (B), and Treasury backs the Fed (C), and the Fed backs Wall Street banks (D), then US taxpayers (A) back the ongoing profitability of Wall Street banks (D). Perhaps this explains why all those crisp new electronic dollars created from thin air last fall went directly to creditor banks rather than to debtor homeowners?
Saving the system was generally perceived then to be saving the US economy or saving the commercial paper market or saving depositors from losses. In fact these systems were never at risk given the Fed’s willingness to print money and cover all bets. Whether carefully designed or the result of impulsive reactions, there was a decision made at the highest levels of government. The only conclusion to draw was that the “system” saved was the system of government intermediation into the private sector economy and it was accomplished by saving the government’s ports of entry — Wall Street’s largest and most influential banks.
Category: Think Tank
Sept Retail Sales were better than expected as they fell just 1.5% m/o/m, .6% better than forecasts, as the CARS program ended (motor vehicles, parts fell 10.4%). Ex the influence of auto’s, sales rose .5%, .3% more than expected and ex auto’s and gasoline, sales were up .4%, .2% higher than estimated. Component supplier Intel…Read More
Solid execution with big upside in revenues from INTC and JPM provides an interesting backdrop to the Retail Sales data today. Intel has benefited from inventory rebuilding, especially ahead of the Windows 7 launch (replacement cycle hopes) and netbook sales. The question of sustainability will be sell through to the end consumer and the Retail…Read More
Vice Chairman Donald L. Kohn
At the National Association for Business Economics, St. Louis, Missouri
October 13, 2009
The Economic Outlook
I’m pleased to be here at the National Association for Business Economics. Most of you are in the business of making or using economic forecasts to inform the strategies of your organizations as they try to meet their objectives. So am I, and I thought this would be a good opportunity to discuss my view of the outlook and the implications that I draw for monetary policy. I’ll start with a brief overview of recent developments and the near-term outlook. Then I’ll turn to a few of the issues that bear on the medium to longer-run outlook. I emphasize that the views you are about to hear are my own and not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee.1
In broad terms, the data that we have in hand indicate that economic activity turned up in the third quarter. To some extent, the pickup in activity in recent months reflects the dissipation of some of the forces that had been exerting downward pressure on the economy during the preceding several quarters. Perhaps the most important of these downward forces was the turmoil in financial markets that began in late 2007, which not only tightened credit availability and reduced wealth, but also undermined confidence, especially when conditions took a decided turn for the worse in the fall of 2008. The stabilization, and more recently the improvement, in risk appetites and financial conditions, in part responding to actions by the Federal Reserve and other authorities, has been a critical factor in allowing the economy to begin to move higher after a very deep recession.
A turn in the inventory cycle is another key element in the recent firming in aggregate activity. During the second half of 2008, many firms were apparently surprised at the sharp falloff in demand. In response to a buildup of unwanted inventories, they began aggressively liquidating stocks by slashing production well below the level of sales. The pace of liquidation intensified through the middle of this year. More recently, however, with inventories now less burdensome, firms have begun boosting production to slow the pace of inventory destocking and bring output into closer alignment with expected final sales. This process is particularly evident in the motor vehicle industry, where the stock of cars and trucks on dealers’ lots had become extremely lean, prompting increases in assemblies from the very low levels seen at midyear. More broadly, the slower pace of inventory liquidation likely provided an appreciable boost to manufacturing production in July and August, and should continue to push up factory output further in the near-term.
The Fed’s Vice Chairman Kohn speaking on the economic outlook is not saying anything new. He discusses the signs of improvement that will lead to growth in Q3, “dissipation of some of the forces that had been exerting downward pressure on the economy during the preceding several quarters,” inventories, stabilized housing, business spending on equipment…Read More
October 9, 2009 A client asked the following question above …. Jim, yes, same page, “inflection” point = March rally over. I missed the conf call so you may have touched upon it. Will have time to review this weekend. I think you believe rally is over when Fed “pulls” liquidity, i.e, rate high, etc….Read More
Category: Think Tank
Former Morgan Stanley Analyst Andy Xie explains why China is a potential bubble: ~~~ Asset bubbles come and go. Each begins with a story: Japan as No. 1, the East Asian miracle, dotcom mania, how financial innovations eliminate risk – just to mention the latest four. Each begins with a plausibly bullish story, which is…Read More
Category: Think Tank
Another day, another 14 month low in the $ index and record high in gold. This comes even after the Oct German ZEW investor confidence figure in their economy was almost 3 points less than expected and unexpectedly fell from Sept, below forecasted inflation data in France and the UK and a comment from an…Read More