Posts filed under “Think Tank”

Updated earnings cheat sheet

Here is an update from my earnings and revenue cheat sheet and the trends still remain similar to Q2 in that most companies are beating eps estimates while slightly more than half are beating revenue forecasts. The relative positive though is the amount of the beats are exceeding what was seen in Q2. I have 83% of companies beating eps estimates and 59% exceeding revenue estimates. In Q2 it was closer to 75% beating eps expectations with about half beating revenue estimates. The bigger rally in stocks from mid to July thru earnings season relative to what we’ve seen so far in response to Q3 was mostly due to the backdrop of a 7% fall from mid June heading into Q2 earnings reports in July that set the bar low. Also, there was more investor surprise to the Q2 earnings beats than there is so far for Q3, notwithstanding the statistical beats to estimates.

Category: MacroNotes

Europe Round Up

From a major NY trading desk: European markets opened a few points above flat, fell by nearly -1%, and have since rallied back to the unchanged mark: DAX -0.1%; CAC -0.2%; FTSE -0.1%. Earnings season is now in full swing in the U.K. and on the continent. Dutch supermarket chain Ahold is modestly lower after…Read More

Category: Economy, Employment, Think Tank

Bank of Canda doesn’t go the way of the RBA

In contrast to the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of Canada decided to keep rates at the historical low level of .25% and the strength of the Canadian $ seems to be the main motivation. The RBA spent more time focused on the possible imprudence of keeping rates at emergency levels when it was…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Economic data

Sept PPI fell a sharp .6% vs expectations of flat and the core also unexpectedly fell .1% vs a forecasted rise of .1%. The headline drop was led by a 2.4% fall in energy prices, especially in gasoline which was down by 5.4%. This will reverse though in Oct as gasoline prices are back up…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

David Einhorn, Value Investing Congress, October 19, 2009

Einhorn Vic 2009 Speech

Category: Bailouts, Credit, Markets, Think Tank

The big multinational companies continue to deliver and other stuff

Earnings overall continue to be excellent with a higher % of revenue beats than Q2. Apple of course was incredibly impressive. The big multinational companies with healthy exposure outside of the US definitely took advantage of the stronger rebound overseas. Emerging markets, led by Brazil, may be under pressure today after Brazil’s decision to levy…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

NAHB index unexpectedly falls

The Oct Nat’l Assoc of Home Builders index, an index measuring home building sentiment, was 18, 2 pts below forecasts and down from 19. Present conditions fell 1 pt while future expectations fell 2 pts. Prospective Buyers Traffic fell 3 pts as the West, South and Midwest regions dropped with the West showing the biggest…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Bernanke speaks and stays on topic

Bernanke talks nothing about monetary policy and keeps his speech focused on Asia and our trade relationship with them. His bottom line, the US needs to save more, Asia needs to consume more and this would rebalance trade imbalances. Of course with US interest rates at zero, savings in the US has been more of…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Bernanke on Asia and the Global Financial Crisis

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke

At the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco’s Conference on Asia and the Global Financial Crisis, Santa Barbara, California

October 19, 2009

Asia and the Global Financial Crisis

The rise of the Asian economies since World War II has been one of the great success stories in the history of economic development.  Japan’s transition to an economic powerhouse was followed by the rapid ascent of the Asian tigers, and subsequently by China taking a prominent place on the world economic stage.1 Since the beginning of this decade, Asia has accounted for more than one-third of the world’s economic growth, raising its share of global gross domestic product (GDP) from 28 percent to 32 percent.2 Importantly, its economic success has resulted in large-scale reductions in poverty and substantial improvements in the standards of living of hundreds of millions of people.  China and India, which together account for almost 40 percent of the world’s population, have seen real per capita incomes rise more than 10-fold and 3-fold, respectively, since 1980.  As would be expected given the increasing size and sophistication of their economies, the nations of the region have also begun to exert a substantial influence on global economic developments and on international governance in the economic and financial spheres.

It is widely agreed that a key source of Asia’s rapid advancement has been the openness of countries in the region to global trade and finance.  Notwithstanding this consensus, the considerable progress of these countries in developing domestic institutions, policies, and industrial capacity–together with their strong growth in the initial phase of the ongoing global financial crisis–led some to speculate that the Asian economies had “decoupled” from the advanced economies of North America and Europe.  Of course, in hindsight, given the magnitude of the shocks that have struck these advanced economies over the past two years, as well as their strong economic and financial links to Asia, it should not have been surprising that Asia was ultimately hit quite hard by the global downturn, even though the origins of the turmoil were elsewhere.

As a prelude to the papers and discussions to follow, I will provide a brief overview of the Asian experience during the global financial crisis.  I will highlight the diversity of experiences, both within Asia and between Asia and other regions, and draw some inferences about the different channels through which the effects of the financial crisis were transmitted around the world.  I will discuss Asia’s policy response to the economic and financial consequences of the crisis.  Finally, I will focus on medium-term challenges.  For both Asia and the United States, perhaps the greatest medium-term challenge is to achieve more balanced growth and, in the process, to further reduce global imbalances.

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Category: Federal Reserve, Think Tank

Bernanke to speak

With Barron’s now chiming in with its belief of what Bernanke should do with rates, and that is higher, as emergency rates are not appropriate now that the emergency has receded, Bernanke speaks at 11am on Asia and the Financial Crisis where off topic monetary policy comments are always possible as its getting tougher for…Read More

Category: MacroNotes