Posts filed under “Think Tank”

Morning stuff

Due to continued concerns that the pace of economic stimulus cannot be sustained, the Shanghai index fell another 4.3% and is now down 19.8% from its level of just two weeks ago. As China is predominantly responsible for lifting the global economy off its arse in March, the pullback is having its now obvious impact on everyone else. Growth concerns have sent the US 10 yr bond yield to a one month low. ABC confidence rose 1 point to -46 as evidence of consumer saving may be having an influence. The Personal Finance component rose to a 13 week high even as the State of Economy figure fell to an 8 week low. Also, there was a sign of acknowledgment on the part of the consumer that things have stabilized as ‘those that said economy is getting worse’ fell to a 5 1/2 year low at 31% but only 26% thinks its getting better with the balance being ‘the same.’ The MBA said refi’s rose 6.9% and purchases rose 3.9%, an 8 week high.

Category: MacroNotes

Checking Back in with Taleb

Good Evening: U.S. stocks today recovered almost half the losses they suffered yesterday. Credit for today’s light volume comeback goes to the combined effects of a recovery in Asian equities (China’s CSI 300 was up 1%), some analyst upgrades in the tech sector, and earnings beats by some retailers. What the future holds for U.S….Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank

Goldman Sach’s ‘American Socialism Manifesto’

Goldman’s new ‘American Socialism Manifesto’

Paul B. Farrell
Marketwatch, August 9th, 2009 4:57 PM

reprinted with permission, Copyright Marketwatch, all right reserved

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Warning: Behavioral economics means one thing to Wall Street and Washington and something quite different to Main Street. It depends on whether you’re the nudger or nudgee, the manipulator or the manipulated, the guys making lots of money or the folks being scammed.

Average folks erroneously believe behavioral economics helps them. But behavioral nudgers just want to help themselves.

And both political parties are guilty. Behavioral economics is all the rage since the new president hired some academic behaviorists. That also helped the GOP, made average folks forget the former president had his nudgers, too, like former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. Moreover, his party recently hired 350 lobbyists, many former Senators and Congressmen, to kill the new guy’s health-care reform.

The truth is, folks, behavioral economics, nudging, manipulation and lobbying, whatever you call it, has been a part of American politics for a long time under many names, though neither party publicly admits their nudging strategies.

Puzzled? Ask yourself: Why is the GOP so aggressively demonizing Obama’s health-care reform as “socialism?” Why? Yes, something smells fishy, especially since the GOP created the biggest “socialized medicine” program ever with Medicare drugs.

Then suddenly the “why” hit me. Here’s why … All the fear-mongering about health-care “socialism” is actually a strategic smoke screen, a brilliant counterattack, a sneaky political cover-up of the GOP’s recent historic takeover of America using taxpayer-funded bailout money against us. Get it? The Right’s making Left turns into “socialism.”

You heard me. In “Bailout Nation,” money manager Barry Ritholtz summarizes this clandestine takeover of the great American democracy, led by Paulson and the Goldman Conspiracy juggernaut. In less than a year America has become “Socialism for the Rich! Capitalism for the Rest,” says Ritholtz.

It all began last October, just before the elections. Paulson, Goldman’s Trojan Horse inside a GOP-controlled White House, moved with the lightning speed of a special-ops team attacking behind enemy lines. Paulson took command of the meltdown, before our clueless Congress knew what happened.

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Category: Bailout Nation, Bailouts, Think Tank

Status of the Clunker plan

According to Edmunds.com (the auto consumer info website), “the rush of automotive sales activity brought on by the ‘Cash for Clunkers’ program is fading fast. They said auto purchase intent is down 31% from its peak in late July. “Now that there is plenty of money in the program and the most eager shoppers have…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Federal Reserve Releases “Real” FOMC Statement

James Bianco is founder and CEO of Bianco Research in Chicago.  He has been producing fixed income research with a circulation of hundreds of portfolio managers and traders since 1990. Jim’s commentaries have a special emphasis on: money flow characteristics of primary dealers, mutual funds, hedge funds, futures traders, banks, and institutional investors. Prior to…Read More

Category: Federal Reserve, Think Tank

S&P 500 Market Review

Kevin Lane is one of the founding partners of Fusion Analytics, and is the firm’s director of Quantitative Research. He is the main architect for developing their proprietary stock selection models and trading algorithms. Prior to joining Fusion Analytics, Mr. Lane enjoyed success as the Chief Market Strategist for several sell side institutional brokerage firms….Read More

Category: Quantitative, Think Tank

Data

July Housing Starts totaled 581k, 18k less than expected and down from 587k in June while Permits were 17k less than the consensus and 10k below the prior month. The drop in starts and permits was solely in the multi family category as single family starts and permits rose to the highest since Oct ’08….Read More

Category: MacroNotes

The Future’s So Bright, I Gotta Wear Shades

“The Future’s So Bright, I Gotta Wear Shades,” sang Timbuk3 but helps to sum up the much better than forecasted German ZEW figure which measures the expectations of future economic growth within the next 6 months. It was 56.1 vs the estimate of 45, up from 39.5 in July and is at the highest level…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Some Thoughts About the Pullback in Equities

Good Evening: Global equities suffered a broad retreat today, with most of the damage centered in Asia. China in particular has been a standout to the downside of late, a situation I tried to call attention to last Wednesday. Including Monday’s 6% drubbing, the major Chinese indexes have declined 15% or more (the CSI 300,…Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank

C&I loans

On the question of whether or not banks are lending and also where the level of demand is for loans, weekly Commercial and Industrial loan data (out on Friday) can be a helpful gauge. C&I loans outstanding for the week ended Aug 5th fell by $4.6b to $1.475t, the lowest since the week ended Feb…Read More

Category: MacroNotes