Posts filed under “Think Tank”

Q2 GDP, thanks for the deflator

Q2 GDP fell 1%, .5% better than expected but the breakdown was very mixed as NOMINAL GDP fell more than expected as the deflator rose just .2% vs expectations of a gain of 1%. If the deflator was in line, REAL GDP would have fallen 1.8%. Personal consumption dropped 1.2%, .7% more than the consensus and which makes up a large majority of GDP. Inventories took .8% off GDP, down from the sharp 2.4% pull in Q1. Net exports added 1.4% after adding 2.6% in Q1. Real final sales, which takes out the impact of inventories, fell .2%, a sharp improvement from the decline of 4.1% in Q1 and 4.7% in Q4. Government spending added 1.1% to GDP. Residential construction fell 29.3%, non residential structures fell 8.9% and spending on equipment and software fell by 9%, much slower than the decline of 36.4% in Q1. Bottom line, we are set up for an improvement in inventories and trade but consumer spending still remains in question.

Category: MacroNotes

morning note/Q2 GDP

Today we’ll quantify to what extent the US economy is one step closer to ending the recession when Q2 GDP is expected out with a decline of 1.5%, the 4th Q in a row of contraction. Trade and inventories are the two components that will lead the slowing rate of decline as personal consumption, 70%…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

New Classifications for Personal Consumption Expenditures (Wonky)

Today, we get the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)  comprehen­sive, or benchmark, revision of the national income and product accounts (NIPAs). The last such revision was released in December 2003. ture components of gross domestic product (GDP) and some of the income components. For those of you who want more info, consider the following sources:…Read More

Category: Economy, Think Tank

Backbone Not Likely in Fed’s Exit Strategy Toolkit

Good Evening: Just when market participants had grown used to the stock market’s recent pattern of falling in the morning and rising in the afternoon, U.S. share prices pulled a George Costanza and did the opposite today (if you are unsure what this “Seinfeld” reference means, click here). Higher markets overseas, some decent earnings reports,…Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank

7 year note auction

The 7 year note auction was good as the yield was about 3 bps less than expected. The bid to cover of 2.63 was above the average seen in the previous 5 of 2.4 but below the June auction of 2.82. The level of indirect bidders totaled 62.5%, below the 67.2% seen in June which…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

RSI in the NDX, highest since Jan 2000

With another run today higher, the 14 day RSI (relative strength index) in the NDX is now at the highest level since Jan 2000. Momentum such as this that brings us overbought can keep us overbought for a continued period of time so it’s never a one stop timing measurement but it at least brings…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Has the housing market hit bottom?

Tim Iacono is a retired software engineer and writes the financial blog “The Mess That Greenspan Made” which chronicles the many and varied after-effects of the Greenspan term at the Federal Reserve. Tim is also the founder of the investment website “Iacono Research” that provides weekly updates to subscribers on the economy, natural resources, and financial markets.

Today, he looks at the question of whether the Housing market has bottomed or not  yet . . .

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Now that a number of recent housing reports are generating some incredibly positive headlines and the global economy appears to be slowly digging its way out of an enormous hole that was created last fall when the world nearly came to an end, the burning question on the minds of millions of people is … Has the housing market hit bottom?

There is no shortage of answers.

Unfortunately, most of them are far too simple and, in most cases, the individual or organization providing the answer has a bias of some sort.

I’m no exception.

We sold our house about five years ago and have been renting ever since.

We plan to buy again, but not until at least next year and we hope to get a lot more house for our money than we could today.

That’s the soonest that I think the bottom in home prices is likely to occur around here in the price range we’re looking, though a bottom in home sales may already be behind us, and this is what makes the recent discussion of a housing bottom so complicated – “hitting bottom” means different things to different people living in different parts of the country.

The discourse on this subject is full of misinformation and deception from parties with vested interests that will inevitably lead people to make horrendously bad decisions that they’ll regret in another year or two while others may postpone decisions that would be best made today.

With my biases out of the way, a few thoughts on a housing market bottom are offered here. In this article, regional differences will largely be set aside and the focus will be on three sets of national housing data – new home sales, existing home sales, and existing home prices.

New Home Sales Have Bottomed

First, let’s look at the home building industry, which, up until a couple years ago had accounted for about 10 to 15 percent of all home sales. Then, the homebuilders’ share gradually sank to about half that amount as waves of foreclosures started hitting the market at much lower prices, cutting into their business dramatically.

Ironically, many of these foreclosure sales were homes that the builders had built and sold a couple years prior. Disgruntled home buyers who, in 2006 and 2007, complained about how builders were slashing prices on Phase III after they bought in Phase II ultimately had the last laugh in 2008 and 2009 when they walked away from their almost-brand-new home and the bank sold it at a 40 percent discount to the going prices for Phase III.

Don’t feel too sorry for the homebuilders – they had a few very good years.

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Category: Real Estate, Think Tank

claims data

Initial Jobless Claims totaled 584k, 9k higher than expected and the prior week was revised up by 5k to 559k. This should be the first clean number in weeks where it’s not influenced by the seasonal distortions that was brought by the differing time schedules of auto plant shutdowns. The insured unemployment rate was unchanged…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

That was a short correction

After a 5% drubbing, the Shanghai index bounced back 1.7% as the PBOC quelled concerns that monetary policy would change much. Good earnings reports in Japan also helped to lift spirits. European stocks rallied after the July Euro Zone economic confidence # rose almost 3 points from June and was 1 point more than estimated….Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Settling For Less in the New Normal

Good Evening: Just as they have during 9 of the past 10 sessions, U.S. stocks suffered a setback in the morning, only to rally late in the day. Unlike so many recent sessions, however, all the major averages remained in the red as the closing bell rang on Wednesday. A sell off in China, some…Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank