Posts filed under “Think Tank”

Housing Starts

June Housing Starts totaled 582k (highest since Nov ’08), 52k more than expected and May was revised up by 30k. Permits were also above the consensus coming in at 563k, 39k more than expected. The gain from May was solely in the single family home category as multi family starts fell. Single family starts rose in both the South and West, the two areas of the country that least need new starts. California’s $10,000 tax credit is for new homes only which encourages home building in a market that still has too much inventory. In terms of residential construction’s contribution to GDP, the higher than expected number is a positive but from an inventory view, it’s not what is needed. Today’s bounce in starts follows yesterday’s July NAHB # which rose to the highest level since Sept ’08. Net-net, existing home sales make up most of the market and is more relevant in terms of moving the inventory needle but less new building would help.

Category: MacroNotes


Lakshman Achuthan is co-founder and managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), an independent organization focused on business cycle analysis and forecasting in the tradition established by ECRI’s co-founder, Geoffrey H. Moore. ECRI maintains business cycle chronologies for 20 countries around the world other than the U.S. Lakshman is the managing editor of…Read More

Category: Economy, Think Tank

Earnings season vs Revenue season

Earnings season continues to be on a solid track with upside surprises from IBM, GOOG, BAC, GE, and MAT. However, if we refer to Q2 reports as Revenue season in terms of gauging economic activity, the quarter so far from companies that have reported is more of a mixed bag. The discrepancy is similar to…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Nat’l Assoc of Home Builders index

The July Nat’l Assoc of Home Builders index rose 2 points to 17, 1 point more than the consensus and it’s at the highest level since Sept ’08 (which is the case now with many economic numbers). But, it’s still obviously well below the magic 50 level. There was a 3 point improvement in the…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

The Bulls still have some juice …

Kevin Lane is one of the founding partners of Fusion Analytics, and is the firm’s director of Quantitative Research. He is the main architect for developing their proprietary stock selection models and trading algorithms. Mr. Lane is a member of the Market Technicians Association. ~~~ After testing the lower end of its’ trading range just…Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank, Trading

Philly Fed manufacturing survey

The July Philly Fed survey was -7.5, 3 points weaker than expected and down from -2.2 in June and in contrast to the better than expected NY survey yesterday. New Orders and Backlogs did improve but remained negative while the Employment component fell by 3.5 points to -25.3 off the lowest level since Oct. Inventories…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Viacialevitra in Reverse

David R. Kotok co-founded Cumberland Advisors in 1973 and has been its Chief Investment Officer since inception. He holds a B.S. in Economics from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, an M.S. in Organizational Dynamics from The School of Arts and Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania, and a Masters in Philosophy from…Read More

Category: Bailouts, Think Tank

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims totaled 522k, 31k less than expected and down sharply from 569k last week. Again, the auto sector is depressing the number. In July automakers normally shut down plants but because Chrysler and GM shut plants over the past few months due to their bankruptcies and just restarted them, we aren’t going to see…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Morning stuff/CIT and China

For just the 2nd time since the credit bubble imploded, the Fed and Treasury said no to another bailout. I fully acknowledge the potential bankruptcy of CIT will be highly disruptive and difficult for small business but score one for American Capitalism as I’m extremely confident that healthy financial institutions will step in and fill…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Intel Throws Party; BAC Founder Appalled

Good Evening: The “Intel Inside” ad campaign received a boost today in the form of an Intel-Inspired equity market celebration. As the whole world watched, Intel exceeded earnings estimates last night, rose in aftermarket trading, and then paced an around the globe rally in stock prices. Setting the bar low and then leaping over it…Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank