Posts filed under “Think Tank”

New Home Sales

July New Home Sales, about 15% of the market, totaled 433k annualized, 43k above estimates and up from a revised 395k in June. It is now at the highest level since Sept ’08. Months supply fell to 7.5 from 8.5 and to the lowest level since April ’07 and is an obvious big improvement as its now well off its high of 12.4 in January and close to its 30 year average of 6.1. The gains were seen in the Northeast, South and the West. The Midwest saw a drop. The absolute number of homes for sale fell to 271k, down 9k from the prior month and is now the smallest amount since April ’93. The median price fell 11.5% y/o/y and down a touch m/o/m. According to, the average 30 yr mortgage rate was 5.37% in July, down from 5.48% in June. The $8,000 tax credit for 1st time home buyers continues to help and we’ll see if it continues past the Nov 30th deadline. Today’s # also squares with the cautious optimism given from some homebuilder CEO’s.

Category: MacroNotes

Durable Goods

July Durable Goods rose a much better than expected 4.9% vs the estimated gain of 3% but ex transports, new orders rose .8%, .1% less than expected. The June data for both headline and ex transports were revised higher. Non defense capital goods ex aircraft, the core capital spending component, fell .3% after healthy gains…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Bulls get more giddy and bears go into further hibernation

Stock market bullishness has reached a new high in this run from the March lows as measured by the weekly II survey of newsletter writers. Bulls rose to 51.6 from 48.3 last week and that is the highest since Dec ’07 while Bears fell to 19.8 from 23.1, the lowest since Oct ’07. This contrarian…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Stocks Shout “Recovery!”; What Do Other Markets Say?

Good Evening: U.S. stocks rose once again on Tuesday, halting its latest losing streak at one. What was interesting about today’s rather modest closing gains is that, given the news flow, they could have been quite a bit better. Ben Bernanke was reappointed to his position as Fed Chairman, home prices actually rose a tad…Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank

Seasonality of Home Prices

To highlight the seasonality of housing and its impact on pricing where the spring is the busiest of the year, the S&P/Case Shiller Index, which does not seasonally adjust its m/o/m pricing, has shown its best performance in Q2 in every year except one going back to ’01. ’09 is of course not complete but…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Bloomberg Lawsuit

Bloomberg Lawsuit Judgment

Category: Legal, Think Tank

Consumer Confidence

August Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board was a better than expected 54.1 vs the consensus of 47.9 and up from 47.4 in July. It’s the highest since May which at the time was the most since Aug ’08. Almost all of the improvement was in the Expectations component which rose about 10 points while…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index

The June S&P/CaseShiller 20 city Home Price Index fell 15.44% y/o/y, better than the expected fall of 16.4%. The index rose 1.4% m/o/m, the 2nd month in a row of m/o/m gains. From the record high, prices are down by 31.3%, off the high to low drop of 32.6% at the low in April. Every…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

It all comes down to home prices

When home prices stop going down, the worst of the credit crisis will have ended as banks can confidently quantify their exposure, investors can feel comfortable with taking on certain risk, many homeowners will stop the drowning on their mortgage, home buyers won’t have lower prices to wait for and the important wealth effect can…Read More

Category: MacroNotes


Bernanke! August 24, 2009 Markets will like the removal of uncertainty now that President Obama has committed to Fed Chairman Bernanke’s reappointment. Confirmation by the US Senate is expected without much difficulty. History shows that uncertainty is the enemy of markets. Much speculation about Bernanke and a possible Summers succession has swirled in market analysis…Read More

Category: Think Tank