Posts filed under “Think Tank”

Nat’l Assoc of Home Builders index

The July Nat’l Assoc of Home Builders index rose 2 points to 17, 1 point more than the consensus and it’s at the highest level since Sept ’08 (which is the case now with many economic numbers). But, it’s still obviously well below the magic 50 level. There was a 3 point improvement in the Present conditions component while Future expectations were unchanged. The Prospective Buyers Traffic rose 1 point and was solely led by an increase in the South. The Northeast area fell 3 points while the West and Midwest were unchanged. The average 30 year mortgage rate so far in July is 5.34% according to Bankrate.com down from 5.48% in June. This measure of sentiment also reflects the $8,000 federal home purchase tax credit which is limited to first time home buyers (expires on Nov 30th ’09) and the $10,000 tax credit in California which only is for buyers of new homes (expires in March ’10).

Category: MacroNotes

The Bulls still have some juice …

Kevin Lane is one of the founding partners of Fusion Analytics, and is the firm’s director of Quantitative Research. He is the main architect for developing their proprietary stock selection models and trading algorithms. Mr. Lane is a member of the Market Technicians Association. ~~~ After testing the lower end of its’ trading range just…Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank, Trading

Philly Fed manufacturing survey

The July Philly Fed survey was -7.5, 3 points weaker than expected and down from -2.2 in June and in contrast to the better than expected NY survey yesterday. New Orders and Backlogs did improve but remained negative while the Employment component fell by 3.5 points to -25.3 off the lowest level since Oct. Inventories…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Viacialevitra in Reverse

David R. Kotok co-founded Cumberland Advisors in 1973 and has been its Chief Investment Officer since inception. He holds a B.S. in Economics from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, an M.S. in Organizational Dynamics from The School of Arts and Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania, and a Masters in Philosophy from…Read More

Category: Bailouts, Think Tank

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims totaled 522k, 31k less than expected and down sharply from 569k last week. Again, the auto sector is depressing the number. In July automakers normally shut down plants but because Chrysler and GM shut plants over the past few months due to their bankruptcies and just restarted them, we aren’t going to see…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Morning stuff/CIT and China

For just the 2nd time since the credit bubble imploded, the Fed and Treasury said no to another bailout. I fully acknowledge the potential bankruptcy of CIT will be highly disruptive and difficult for small business but score one for American Capitalism as I’m extremely confident that healthy financial institutions will step in and fill…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Intel Throws Party; BAC Founder Appalled

Good Evening: The “Intel Inside” ad campaign received a boost today in the form of an Intel-Inspired equity market celebration. As the whole world watched, Intel exceeded earnings estimates last night, rose in aftermarket trading, and then paced an around the globe rally in stock prices. Setting the bar low and then leaping over it…Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank

First Appointments to the to Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission

It is modeled on the Pecora Commission, a Senate panel that investigated causes of the Great Depression during the 1930s. The Pecora Commission led to major changes in federal law. Speaker and Majority Leader appointed Phil Angelides as chairman of the Commission. Angelides was elected California State Treasurer from 1999 to 2007 House Speaker •…Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank

CIT is Not the FDIC’s Problem

The team of Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and OCC chief John Dugan are trying to paint Sheila Bair and the FDIC as the villains in the CIT situation. CK this missive I just got from one of the members of the working press: “The lobbyists are ready to string Bair up and claim this could…Read More

Category: Credit, Markets, Think Tank

Pick your poison

On the same day Treasury Secretary Geithner said “It is the policy of the US and it will remain the policy of the US to remain committed to a strong dollar” and that it will “remain the principal reserve currency,” the $ index is back below 80 and a close here would be the lowest…Read More

Category: MacroNotes