Posts filed under “Think Tank”

Durable Goods

New orders for May Durable Goods unexpectedly rose both headline and ex transports. Headline rose 1.8% vs a forecasted drop of .9% while ex transports rose 1.1% vs an expected fall of .5%. The prior month was revised lower by a touch. Non defense capital goods ex aircraft, the pure cap ex component, rose a solid 4.8% but after drops in the two prior months and is still down 23.1% y/o/y. The headline # was boosted by a 68.1% rise in non defense aircraft orders which is a highly volatile category. Vehicle and parts orders fell 8.1% and are down 32% y/o/y and it’s the main group where a 2nd half inventory rebuild is expected to come from. The main support to the ex transport # was a 7.7% gain in machinery orders and a 2.2% rise in computers/electronics. Primary metals were little changed and electrical equipment orders fell 1.1%. One caveat, the inventory to shipments ratio rose to 1.90, the highest since ’92.

Category: MacroNotes

Consumer Confidence/Mortgage applications

The MBA said weekly mortgage applications rose 6.6% as refi’s rose 5.9% and purchases gained 7.3% as the average 30 year mortgage rate fell to 5.44%, down 13 bps from two weeks before. The gain in refi’s though comes on the heels of an almost 50% drop over the past month. The purchase component rose…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

What will the history books say?

When the history books are written on the great credit bubble and its crash, how will they depict the visual of the fate of the $14 trillion US economy and its 300mm citizens being largely influenced by about 20 men and women sitting around a large mahogany table in a building on Constitution Ave in…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Mortgage Broker’s Anti-Appraisal Reform Lobbying Effort

Call to Action _June 4,2009

Category: Real Estate, Think Tank, Valuation

NAR Anti Appraisal Reform Lobbying Effort

TO: State Association Executive Officers State Association Presidents FROM: NAR Government Affairs DATE: 19 June 2009 RE: Fly-In Head’s Up Please note this notice is going to all state executive officers and state presidents. We will be sending Fly-In details on Monday June 22, 2009 to the states who have Members of Congress and/or United…Read More

Category: Legal, Real Estate, Regulation, Think Tank

NAR Urges 18 Month Moratorium on Appraisal Reform

Letter from Charles McMillan, 2009 President, National Association of REALTORS urging an 18 month moratorium on the Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC) to Andrew Cuomo, NY Attorney General and James B. Lockhart III, Federal Housing Finance Agency: HVCC Moratorium Lockheart

Category: Real Estate, Regulation, Think Tank

Home Valuation Code of Conduct

Home Valuation Code of Conduct ~~~ Source: Fannie Mae

Category: Credit, Legal, Real Estate, Think Tank

Is the Great Recession Over?

Good Evening: In the wake of yesterday’s beating, U.S. stocks were mostly unmoved today by a series of new stories and economic releases. Much of today’s trading desk debates centered on the current Fed meeting and the exit strategies from quantitative easing the FOMC may or may not announce tomorrow. Given the uncertainty ahead of…Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank

Existing Home Sales

May Existing Home Sales, a measure of closings where the contracts were likely signed a few months prior so thus doesn’t reflect the rise in mortgage rates, totaled 4.77mm annualized, 50k less than expected but is up from 4.66mm in April which was revised lower by 20k. The NAR said about 33% of the sales…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

An ECB jab at the Fed

The euro has lifted back to near the 1.40 level vs the US$ after ECB member Weber basically said their benchmark rate will not go any lower, “the ECB governing council has used the room for rate reductions that was created by waning inflation risks and a dramatic worsening of the economic situation.” On other…Read More

Category: MacroNotes