Posts filed under “Think Tank”

Existing Home Sales

June Existing Home Sales totaled 4.89mm annualized, 50k more than expected but May was revised down by exactly 50k to 4.72mm so taken together about in line. It is though the 3rd month in a row of gains and its at the highest level since Oct ’08 as both single family and condos/co-ops saw sales gains. Months supply fell to 9.4 from 9.8, the lowest since Dec ’08. The high was 11.3 in April ’08 and it got as low as 3.6 in Jan ’05. The NAR said that distressed sales were 31% of the overall total and said 29% of buyers were first time (helped out by the $8000 tax credit). Prices are down 15.4% but rose to $181,800 sequentially, the highest since Oct ’08 as prime foreclosures rise and lead to higher priced homes for sale, thus skewing the median price higher. The South and the West saw the best sales gains as they are still being influenced by foreclosures. The Northeast and Midwest were up a touch. Mortgage rates are up about 40 bps since the contracts were likely signed on these closings so we need to see what influence, if any, in the next few months that it had on sales.

Category: MacroNotes

NDX RSI at highest since Oct ’07

The Relative Strength Index (RSI, defined as a non trending indicator that measures the momentum of a security to determine whether it is in an overbought or oversold condition according to Bloomberg) of the NDX is at the highest level since Oct ’07. RSI is just a snapshot perspective of a particular move and doesn’t…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Emergency Unemployment Compensation

Within the weekly jobless claims data, the Labor Dept also includes a category called Emergency Unemployment Compensation which includes those that have exhausted the 26 week period of receiving claims. It includes the extra 20 weeks that were added in the stimulus package and another 13 weeks above that for certain states that have unemployment…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims totaled 554k, 3k less than expected but the prior week was revised up by 2k. Continuing Claims continued to fall, by 88k for the week and was 165k less than expected. Both are impacted by the unusual seasonal adjustments this year because of the differing timing of auto plant shutdowns. However, continuing…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Fed’s Fisher on Treasury purchases

Non voting member Fisher of the Fed is giving his own ‘personal’ opinion on the continuation of the Fed’s purchase plan of US Treasuries in a speech he’s giving on the economy. He does not wish “to expand or extend our purchases of Treasuries beyond the cumulative $300b planned by this fall.” He said “we…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Households and home prices

As the sustainability and depth of an US economic recovery will come down to the financial health of households and home prices, today we get data on Existing Home Sales and Jobless Claims. Jobless Claims may have one more week of seasonal distortions due to auto plant shutdowns that didn’t occur in July because they…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

CIT = Capitalism In Transition

Good Evening: U.S. stocks finished mixed for a second straight day on Wednesday, as positive earnings from Apple fought lingering credit concerns to a virtual draw. The NASDAQ did manage to advance, however, extending its streak of positive closes to eleven. The rest of the capital markets didn’t stray too far from unchanged, either, with…Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank

FHFA home price index

The May FHFA home price index rose .9% from April and is better than the expected decline of .2%. The y/o/y decline is 5.6%. From its record high in April 2007, prices are down 10.7%. This data measures only those single family homes that have mortgages backed by FNM and FRE and covers every region…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Rate hike odds post Bernanke testimony

Following two days of testimony (and the WSJ editorial) from Bernanke where he repeated that interest rates will stay low for an extended period of time, that inflation will remain subdued for a few years more and that unemployment will remain elevated for a period of time, the odds of a year end rate hike…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

King Report: Paradox of Corporate Cost Cutting

> Because Ben is back in funny money mode, stocks & commodities are rallying.  But the dollar and the Chinese are not happy; and they are clearly expressing their anger. The FT: China will use its foreign exchange reserves, the largest in the world, to support and accelerate overseas expansion and acquisitions by Chinese companies,…Read More

Category: Think Tank