Posts filed under “Think Tank”

King Report: Monster Q2 Russell Rebalancing

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Despite an unexpected increase in both Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims stocks, bonds and commodities soared on Thursday…Please note that Street shills and their fin media accomplices tout a single decline in either jobless claim component as a sign that the bottom is in and recovery has commenced. But when jobless claims decline, it’s immaterial…Last week’s claims were revised higher.

Incredibly some media outlets and pundits attributed the rally to relief that Bernanke’s testimony didn’t go badly. HUH!!! Where are the adult editors and managers?

The best explanation for Thursday’s ‘everything’ rally is Q2 performance gaming has commenced. Stocks rallied for, wise guys front ran, the monster Russell rebalancing for Q2…Bonds rallied, just as they have been doing, after the last Treasury auction tranche.

Initial jobless claims are 627,000; 600,000 was expected. Continuing Claims are 6.74m. The four-week moving average of initial claims, a less volatile metric, increased to 617,250 from 616,750.

Business Week: A Lost Decade for Jobs; Private sector job growth was almost non-existent over the past ten years. Take a look at this horrifying chart:

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10-year-growth

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But government [jobs] keeps growing. Over the past 10 years, the private sector has generated roughly 1.1 million additional jobs, or about 100K per year. The public sector created about 2.4 million jobs.

As we have harped for years, low-paying gigs and government are the main sectors of job growth.

Industry ———————————————– Change, May 1999-2009 (thousands of jobs)*
Private healthcare ———————————–2898
Food and drinking places ————————– 1567
Gov educ ——————————————— 1390

via Business Week

This is what Easy Al and Ben have been papering over – declining jobs, wages, US real living standards, the massive transfer of wealth to BRICs and OPEC. Q1 GDP was revised to -5.5% due to minor revisions in inventories and trade. The 37.3% decline in business investment and inventories is a record (data series began in 1947). The 38.8% decline in homebuilding is the largest contraction since 1980.

John Williams notes: On July 31st, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will revamp GDP history going back to 1929…GDP reporting remains virtually worthless and is little more than political propaganda. John notes that income contracted more in Q1 than Q2. GDI is the income-side equivalent of the GDP’s consumption estimate. As estimated in last month’s reporting, reflecting a sharp reversal in “statistical discrepancy,” first-quarter GDI was reported showing an annualized real quarterly contraction of 3.64%, versus a fourth-quarter estimated contraction of 7.78%. Today’s reporting and revision reflected something of a reversal in other trends, showing a deeper 4.31% annualized quarterly contraction in the first quarter. Year-to-year, first-quarter GDI declined by 3.11% (previously down 2.94%), versus a 2.16% contraction in the fourth quarter.

Ben played the ‘I don’t recollect’ card yesterday when asked about an email that claimed Ben told a Fed employee that if BAC played the MAC (materially adverse clause) ‘management would be gone’.

Moments later Ben played the ‘I don’t remember’ gambit. Congressman Dan Burton rebuked Ben, saying his experience in investigations leads him to believe that people say ‘I don’t remember’ to avoid perjury.

The Fed’s balance sheet declined $58.5B due to a $53.758B decline in the ‘Term Auction Credit’ and a $28.692 decline in ‘liquidity swaps’. The Fed monetized $30B of securities. It appears the Fed is curtailing credit facilities but is increasing its monetization of Treasuries & MBS.

Category: Bailouts, Federal Reserve, Think Tank

Inflation expectations

While the CRB index is flat on the week, the implied inflation rate in the 10 yr TIPS has fallen 22 bps this week to 1.71%, the lowest since May 20th. It also coincides with the conventional 10 yr bond yield falling to the lowest since May 25th on the heels of the three solid…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

U of Michigan confidence

The final June UoM confidence # rose to 70.8 from the initial reading and forecast of 69 and up from 68.7 in May. It is now at the highest level since Feb ’08 but the gain from the preliminary # was all in the Outlook component which rose to 69.2 from 65.4 (preliminary June #)…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Income/Spending/Savings Rate

May Personal Income rose 1.4%, well above expectations of a .3% gain and April was revised up by .2% with the influence being “the increased government social benefit payments associated with the” stimulus plan. Disposable income as a result rose 1.6% BUT ex these special factors, disposable income rose just .2% as wages and salary’s…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Bernanke Dodges Bullet; Markets Celebrate

Good Evening: As Thursday dawned, market participants were a little on edge. Yesterday’s FOMC statement was found a bit wanting by most investors, leaving them concerned about not only the Fed’s exit strategy from Quantitative Easing but also Chairman Bernanke’s exit strategy for a successful escape during today’s Congressional hearings on the BAC-MER deal. Those…Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank

7 yr note auction

The $27b 7 yr note auction and last of the week was solid (as were the prior two this week) as the yield was about 1-2 bps below where the when issued was priced right before and the bid to cover of 2.82 was the highest since they were reintroduced in Feb and above the…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Commercial paper outstanding

Commercial paper outstanding for the week fell by a sharp $47.5b and totals $1.15 trillion, the lowest since at least Nov ’00 that data is out and down from the record high of $2.22 trillion in July ’07. The decline was led by a $44.3b decline in nonfinancial CP to $108.7b, a 29% drop from…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Bernanke testimony

Ahead of Bernanke’s 10am testimony on the Bofa-Merrill deal where he and Paulson are being accused of strong arming Ken Lewis to follow thru with the deal on its original terms, it hit me the striking similarity in looks that Bernanke has with Frank Pentangeli (without the beard), the character in Godfather II that went…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Goldman Sachs: The Great American Bubble Machine

Try this PDF: Goldman Sachs: The Great American Bubble Machine ~~~

Category: Bailouts, Psychology, Think Tank

New Home Sales

May New Home Sales, a measure of contract signings of new homes, totaled 342k annualized, 18k less than expected and down a touch from 344k in April. Mortgage rates remained below 5% for most of the month so this data doesn’t reflect the recent rise but it does take into account the government’s $8,000 home…Read More

Category: MacroNotes