Posts filed under “Think Tank”

$/stocks, changing correlation

Since September ’08 when the Lehman bankruptcy put global deleveraging into overdrive, all major asset classes had a certain correlation, sell stocks, corporate bonds, commodities, and foreign currencies and buy US Treasuries and the US$. Looking at the S&P/US$ relationship since September, thus going back 50 weeks, only 11 weeks (22%) saw a positive correlation between the two where the same week the S&P’s rose, the $ index (DXY) did too and vice versa. If this week’s trends hold, we will have seen the 3rd straight week where both stocks and the DXY have moved in the same direction. What seems to have occurred is that the $ has been trading more in line with its historical influence of interest rate differentials and less towards a risk aversion trade. Again assuming trends hold this week, the direction of 10 yr bond yields has been matched by the $ index for four straight weeks. Of course at some point this trend will change again as persistent US$ weakness will be followed by higher commodity prices and thus higher interest rates.

Category: MacroNotes

September!!!! Also, Closing the Lehman Gap

David R. Kotok co-founded Cumberland Advisors in 1973 and has been its Chief Investment Officer since inception. He holds a B.S. in Economics from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, an M.S. in Organizational Dynamics from The School of Arts and Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania, and a Masters in Philosophy from…Read More

Category: Think Tank

IS THE RECESSION REALLY OVER?

David A. Rosenberg is Chief Economist & Strategist at Gluskin Sheff, with a focus on providing a top-down perspective to the Firm’s investment process. Mr. Rosenberg has earned both Bachelor of Arts and Master of Arts degrees in Economics from the University of Toronto. Prior to joining Gluskin Sheff, David was Chief North American Economist…Read More

Category: Think Tank

Morning stuff

Due to continued concerns that the pace of economic stimulus cannot be sustained, the Shanghai index fell another 4.3% and is now down 19.8% from its level of just two weeks ago. As China is predominantly responsible for lifting the global economy off its arse in March, the pullback is having its now obvious impact…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Checking Back in with Taleb

Good Evening: U.S. stocks today recovered almost half the losses they suffered yesterday. Credit for today’s light volume comeback goes to the combined effects of a recovery in Asian equities (China’s CSI 300 was up 1%), some analyst upgrades in the tech sector, and earnings beats by some retailers. What the future holds for U.S….Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank

Goldman Sach’s ‘American Socialism Manifesto’

Goldman’s new ‘American Socialism Manifesto’

Paul B. Farrell
Marketwatch, August 9th, 2009 4:57 PM

reprinted with permission, Copyright Marketwatch, all right reserved

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Warning: Behavioral economics means one thing to Wall Street and Washington and something quite different to Main Street. It depends on whether you’re the nudger or nudgee, the manipulator or the manipulated, the guys making lots of money or the folks being scammed.

Average folks erroneously believe behavioral economics helps them. But behavioral nudgers just want to help themselves.

And both political parties are guilty. Behavioral economics is all the rage since the new president hired some academic behaviorists. That also helped the GOP, made average folks forget the former president had his nudgers, too, like former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. Moreover, his party recently hired 350 lobbyists, many former Senators and Congressmen, to kill the new guy’s health-care reform.

The truth is, folks, behavioral economics, nudging, manipulation and lobbying, whatever you call it, has been a part of American politics for a long time under many names, though neither party publicly admits their nudging strategies.

Puzzled? Ask yourself: Why is the GOP so aggressively demonizing Obama’s health-care reform as “socialism?” Why? Yes, something smells fishy, especially since the GOP created the biggest “socialized medicine” program ever with Medicare drugs.

Then suddenly the “why” hit me. Here’s why … All the fear-mongering about health-care “socialism” is actually a strategic smoke screen, a brilliant counterattack, a sneaky political cover-up of the GOP’s recent historic takeover of America using taxpayer-funded bailout money against us. Get it? The Right’s making Left turns into “socialism.”

You heard me. In “Bailout Nation,” money manager Barry Ritholtz summarizes this clandestine takeover of the great American democracy, led by Paulson and the Goldman Conspiracy juggernaut. In less than a year America has become “Socialism for the Rich! Capitalism for the Rest,” says Ritholtz.

It all began last October, just before the elections. Paulson, Goldman’s Trojan Horse inside a GOP-controlled White House, moved with the lightning speed of a special-ops team attacking behind enemy lines. Paulson took command of the meltdown, before our clueless Congress knew what happened.

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Category: Bailout Nation, Bailouts, Think Tank

Status of the Clunker plan

According to Edmunds.com (the auto consumer info website), “the rush of automotive sales activity brought on by the ‘Cash for Clunkers’ program is fading fast. They said auto purchase intent is down 31% from its peak in late July. “Now that there is plenty of money in the program and the most eager shoppers have…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Federal Reserve Releases “Real” FOMC Statement

James Bianco is founder and CEO of Bianco Research in Chicago.  He has been producing fixed income research with a circulation of hundreds of portfolio managers and traders since 1990. Jim’s commentaries have a special emphasis on: money flow characteristics of primary dealers, mutual funds, hedge funds, futures traders, banks, and institutional investors. Prior to…Read More

Category: Federal Reserve, Think Tank

S&P 500 Market Review

Kevin Lane is one of the founding partners of Fusion Analytics, and is the firm’s director of Quantitative Research. He is the main architect for developing their proprietary stock selection models and trading algorithms. Prior to joining Fusion Analytics, Mr. Lane enjoyed success as the Chief Market Strategist for several sell side institutional brokerage firms….Read More

Category: Quantitative, Think Tank

Data

July Housing Starts totaled 581k, 18k less than expected and down from 587k in June while Permits were 17k less than the consensus and 10k below the prior month. The drop in starts and permits was solely in the multi family category as single family starts and permits rose to the highest since Oct ’08….Read More

Category: MacroNotes