Posts filed under “Think Tank”

1121 in the S&P’s a key level

With a few weeks left in Q3 and as we look to year end, the S&P’s are approaching the important technical level of 1121 which is the 50% retracement of the entire bear market from the Oct ’07 all time highs to the March ’09 lows. While we may continue in that direction if we can escape the Sept-Oct jinx unharmed, in the very short term and I emphasize short term, the Relative Strength Index in the S&P’s this morning rose to the highest level since Aug 7th. In the two weeks following that date, the S&P’s sold off a modest 3% to work off the overbought condition before the next move higher. This is why the indicator is just short term useful and the market doesn’t have to sell off hard to shake off being overbought.

Category: MacroNotes

More on the flow of funds and the debt impact on the economy

To elaborate further on my previous note on the Fed’s Flow of Funds statement and to illustrate the impact of debt on our economy, over the past 10 years total US debt (households, business, government at all levels and domestic financial institutions) has basically doubled from $24.6t at the end of 1999 to $50.9t as…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Fed’s Flow of Funds tells us how much debt there is

The Q2 US balance sheet is out via the Fed’s Flow of Funds statement and it reveals that household debt (home mortgages + consumer credit) as a % of disposable income fell to 118% from 120% in Q1 and 123% at the end of ’08 and vs the record high of 127% in ’06. It…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Watch Bond Fund Flows, Not Stock Fund Flows

> James Bianco has run Bianco Research out of Chicago since November 1990. He has been producing fixed income commentaries with a circulation of hundreds of portfolio managers and traders. Jim’s commentaries have a special emphasis on: money flow characteristics of primary dealers, mutual funds, hedge funds, futures traders, banks, and institutional investors. Prior to…Read More

Category: Commodities, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Think Tank

September Philly Fed survey

The Philly Fed survey was 14.1, 6 points more than expected and up from 4.2 in Aug. It’s at the highest level since June ’07 but the components were mixed as the headline figure is not a sum of its parts. New Orders fell to 3.3 from 4.2 and Employment fell by 1.4 points to…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Housing Starts

August Housing Starts totaled 598k annualized, right in line with expectations while the prior month was revised up by 8k to 589k. The gain m/o/m was solely led by multi family construction as single family starts fell and the same can be said about Permits. Permits were 579k, 4k below the consensus but July was…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

How much debt do we have?

An expected positive Q3 GDP reading will technically end the recession and the rebound should continue into Q4. The question though is what the sustainability of growth will be in ’10. Consumer demand will be the key factor in how that question is answered and the labor market outlook and thus the ability of consumers…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Who is Feeling Smart These Days?

Good Evening: U.S. stocks rose once again on Wednesday, extending what has become a rather remarkable equity rally. Taken in context with another down day for Treasurys and the U.S. dollar (and another up day for commodities), market participants should be forgiven for feeling Yogi Berra’s sense of deja vu all over again. A slate…Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank

NAHB housing and tax credit impact

The Nat’l Assoc of Home Builders index was 19, in line with expectations but is up 1 point from August. It’s now at the highest level since May ’08 but is still well below the magic level of 50 which is the breakeven between those that say things are better and those that say worse….Read More

Category: MacroNotes


With another record high in gold and the slightly higher than expected headline CPI reading, the implied inflation rate in the 5 year TIPS has risen 6 bps today to 1.55%, the highest level in 3 months. Expectations in the 10 yr TIPS are up 3 bps to 1.86%, the most since August 21st. One…Read More

Category: MacroNotes