Posts filed under “Think Tank”

Fed’s Beige Book

The Beige Book describes economic activity as stabilizing and an uptick from the July report that called ‘economic weakness moderating.’ With respect to overall activity, 5 districts saw signs of improvement, Dallas said activity has ‘firmed’, while 5 said things are stable or showing signs of stabilization. St. Louis said the pace of decline appeared to be moderating. Most said that their ‘business contacts remained cautiously positive.’ Most said retail sales were flat but CFC helped auto’s. ‘Most districts reported some improvement in residential RE markets but home price pressures remained. CRE demand ‘remained weak’ and commercial construction ‘continued to decline.’ ‘Most districts reported improvements in manufacturing.’ ‘Labor market conditions remained weak across all districts’ but 8 districts said staffing co’s had ‘slight uptick in the demand for temp workers.’ Consumer prices were steady in most districts.

Category: MacroNotes

The S&P’s in non US$ terms

Yesterday I quantified the S&P 500 results going back to Sept ’98 in gold terms and its 70% decline. Let’s look at the S&P’s over the same time frame for overseas investors who have currency exposure. In US$’s, the S&P 500 over the past 11 years is up 3% in total (not including dividends) but…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Evans on inflation

Unfortunately the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s website hasn’t posted Evans speech titled the “Great Inflation Debate” even though he’s already given it this morning but I’ll rely on newswire quotes to give you a gist of what he said. In response to the predominant inflation concern resulting from a doubling of the monetary base…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Five Reasons to Avoid the Gold Rush

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson presents the counterpoint for the gold argument: ~~~ The reasons why one should sell the cat, pawn the mother-in-law, and use the proceeds to buy gold are well known: the Fed is printing money faster than you can read this, which will result in inflation; the government is borrowing like a drunken…Read More

Category: Think Tank

“The Great Inflation Debate” and other stuff

Interestingly, the day after gold traded over $1000 and the US$ index fell to a one year low, Fed Pres Evans gives a speech at 8am titled “The Great Inflation Debate.” In the inflation data we still have disinflationary trends but the question is whether the Fed has laid the groundwork for eventual inflation as…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

“New Normal” Means Central Banks Won’t Soon Exit

Good Evening: U.S. stocks rose for a third straight session, recouping almost all of last week’s losses in the process. That these gains were recorded in spite of dour employment figures, a massive drop in consumer credit, and a fresh round of warnings from folks like Nouriel Roubini, Mohamed El-Erian, and Bill Gross is at…Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank

89 Bank Closures in 2009

> click for ginormous chart > Source: Bank closures hit 89 for 2009 Charlie Carter Financial Services Technology, 09/09/07 http://www.usfst.com/news/bank-closures-2009/

Category: Bailouts, Credit, Think Tank

July Consumer Credit

July Consumer Credit fell a much bigger than expected $21.6b vs the consensus of a drop of $4b to a total of $2.47t outstanding. June was also revised lower to a decline of $15.5b from the initial reading of a fall of $10.3b. Both revolving (mostly credit cards) and non revolving (mostly auto’s) credit balances…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

3 year note auction/where are the risk takers?

The 3 year note auction was solid as the yield was a touch more than 1 bps lower than where it was trading in the when issued market and the bid to cover at 3.02 was the best since Nov ’08 and well above the average in ’09 of 2.57. The level of indirect bidders…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

$/gold/TIPs/conventional treasuries

In response to the move lower in the US$ and move higher in gold and other commodities, the implied inflation rate in the 5 yr TIPS has risen 1.4%, up 10 bps from Friday and at the highest level since Aug 11th. The implied inflation rate in the 10 yr TIPS is up to 1.86%,…Read More

Category: MacroNotes