Posts filed under “Think Tank”


April Payrolls fell 539k, 61k better than expected BUT the 2 prior mo’s
were revised down by 66k, so taken together, it was about in line with
estimates. Giving the # a boost was the 72k person increase in Govt
hiring, led by 66k within the Federal Govt. Construction fell by 110k,
mfr’g by 149k, financial by 40k and retail by 47k. Education and health
was the only private sector area of growth. The unemployment rate rose
to 8.9% as expected up from 8.5% but interestingly, the household
survery rose by 120k offset by a 683k increase in the labor force. The
factor helping the household # are those people who lose their jobs at
co’s go out and start their own at home. The augmented unempl rate rose
to 12.2%. The diffusion index which measures the # of those industries
hiring vs firing rose to the highest since Oct at 28.2 up from 20.3. The
B/D model added 226k up from 176 in Apr ’08, a bad assumption so today’s
# is overstated to the better. The aggregate hours index fell again and
doesn’t bode well for income growth in the next few months.

Category: MacroNotes

Clarity, For Now

Clarity is what every investor craves especially in a world of alot of dark alley ways that multiply in a recession. At this moment in time, the ‘stress test’ has given the markets clarity as to the current exposure of 19 banks to a specific set of scenarios and kudos to those that are able…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Stress Test Results For release at 5:00 p.m. EDT The results of a comprehensive, forward-looking assessment of the financial conditions of the nation’s 19 largest bank holding companies (BHCs) by the federal bank supervisory agencies were released on Thursday. The exercise–conducted by the Federal Reserve, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and the Federal Deposit…Read More

Category: Bailouts, Credit, Federal Reserve, Think Tank

Quick Bullets

David R. Kotok co-founded Cumberland Advisors in 1973 and has been its Chief Investment Officer since inception. He holds a B.S. in Economics from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, an M.S. in Organizational Dynamics from The School of Arts and Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania, and a Masters in Philosophy from…Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank

Lessons of the Financial Crisis for Banking Supervision

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke

At the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Conference on Bank Structure and Competition, Chicago, Illinois (via satellite)

May 7, 2009

Lessons of the Financial Crisis for Banking Supervision

After more than a year and a half of financial crisis, both bankers and policymakers must contend with two questions: What have we learned from this extraordinary episode? And how can we apply those lessons to strengthen our banking system and to avoid or mitigate future crises? Getting the answers to these questions right is critical for our future financial and economic health.1

The Federal Reserve has been intensively evaluating the lessons of the crisis, both with respect to the companies we supervise and to our own policies and procedures, and we are actively incorporating what we have learned into daily supervisory practice. Increasing the effectiveness of supervision must be a top priority for our institution. In my remarks today I will outline some steps that the Federal Reserve has already taken in the wake of the crisis to strengthen capital, liquidity, and risk management in the banking sector, as well as to improve the supervisory process itself. I will also touch on what we have learned about the importance of effective consolidated supervision and the potential benefits of a more macroprudential orientation to financial oversight.

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Category: Credit, Federal Reserve, Regulation, Think Tank

Bailoutout Recipient’s Lobbying Activity

Jane Hamsher is the founder of Firedoglake. Her work has appeared on the Huffington Post, Alternet and The American Prospect. She has appeared on CNN, MSNBC and PBS and is the author of the best selling book Killer Instinct. She has produced such films Natural Born Killers and Permanent Midnight and currently lives in Washington,…Read More

Category: Bailouts, Politics, Think Tank

Looking Askance at the Stress Test Rally

> The ADP Employment Change at -491k was significantly better than the expected -645k. This pushed stocks higher. However, as we keep noting, ADP has not tracked the NFP number due to BLS’s whacky seasonal adjustments and its dubious Net Business Birth/Death Model. The Street ‘officially’ expects the Employment Report on Friday to show NFP…Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank

Claims data

Initial Jobless Claims totaled 601k, 34k less than expected and down from a revised 635k last week (up by 4k) and down for a 2nd week to the lowest since Jan 23rd. Continuing Claims though continues its move higher by 56k, 1k more than expected and the differential between the two figures is evident that…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

‘Stress Test the movie,’ hopefully they’ll be no sequel

As we get the official results of the ‘stress test’ today, a key assumption used by the Treasury was a stressed scenario of a 10.3% unemployment rate. With Friday’s report on payrolls, we may be at an unemployment rate of almost 9% and at the current pace, we’ll be at 10% by year end. Thus,…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Recession Over & All Banks Pass the Stress Test?

Good Evening: Just when the U.S. stock market seemed ready for a round of profit-taking ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls figures, investors decided to throw caution to the wind. Apparently deciding that the recession and the stress over the banking system would soon be in the rearview mirror, market participants once again stampeded into large…Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank