Posts filed under “Think Tank”

Emergency Unemployment Compensation

Within the weekly jobless claims data, the Labor Dept also includes a category called Emergency Unemployment Compensation which includes those that have exhausted the 26 week period of receiving claims. It includes the extra 20 weeks that were added in the stimulus package and another 13 weeks above that for certain states that have unemployment rates above certain levels. The non seasonally adjusted level for the week ended July 4th totaled 2.63mm, up 107k from the week prior. I raise this point in light of the circumstances where those that haven’t found a job after 26 weeks of receiving claims are no longer included in the Continuing Claims portion of the data but are still receiving unemployment insurance.

Category: MacroNotes

Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims totaled 554k, 3k less than expected but the prior week was revised up by 2k. Continuing Claims continued to fall, by 88k for the week and was 165k less than expected. Both are impacted by the unusual seasonal adjustments this year because of the differing timing of auto plant shutdowns. However, continuing…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Fed’s Fisher on Treasury purchases

Non voting member Fisher of the Fed is giving his own ‘personal’ opinion on the continuation of the Fed’s purchase plan of US Treasuries in a speech he’s giving on the economy. He does not wish “to expand or extend our purchases of Treasuries beyond the cumulative $300b planned by this fall.” He said “we…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Households and home prices

As the sustainability and depth of an US economic recovery will come down to the financial health of households and home prices, today we get data on Existing Home Sales and Jobless Claims. Jobless Claims may have one more week of seasonal distortions due to auto plant shutdowns that didn’t occur in July because they…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

CIT = Capitalism In Transition

Good Evening: U.S. stocks finished mixed for a second straight day on Wednesday, as positive earnings from Apple fought lingering credit concerns to a virtual draw. The NASDAQ did manage to advance, however, extending its streak of positive closes to eleven. The rest of the capital markets didn’t stray too far from unchanged, either, with…Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank

FHFA home price index

The May FHFA home price index rose .9% from April and is better than the expected decline of .2%. The y/o/y decline is 5.6%. From its record high in April 2007, prices are down 10.7%. This data measures only those single family homes that have mortgages backed by FNM and FRE and covers every region…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Rate hike odds post Bernanke testimony

Following two days of testimony (and the WSJ editorial) from Bernanke where he repeated that interest rates will stay low for an extended period of time, that inflation will remain subdued for a few years more and that unemployment will remain elevated for a period of time, the odds of a year end rate hike…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

King Report: Paradox of Corporate Cost Cutting

> Because Ben is back in funny money mode, stocks & commodities are rallying.  But the dollar and the Chinese are not happy; and they are clearly expressing their anger. The FT: China will use its foreign exchange reserves, the largest in the world, to support and accelerate overseas expansion and acquisitions by Chinese companies,…Read More

Category: Think Tank

Bernanke Campaigns for Reappointment

Good Evening: Stocks were poised to correct their recent gains today, but a late rally extended the winning streak for both the Dow and NASDAQ to seven straight. The earnings news was deemed positive by market participants, though the bottom line “beats” came even as top line revenue estimates fell short. Cost cutting can always…Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank

Dennis Gartman, Ben Bernanke & Congress

Dennis Gartman’s letter today hit so many key points with an economy of words that I have excerpted it and scratched my own text on Bernanke’s testimony. Dennis doesn’t mention the changes in “velocity” which is too technical a subject for this missive. Maybe later. He does perfectly characterize our Congress. Go, Dennis, go. Give…Read More

Category: Federal Reserve, Think Tank