Posts filed under “Think Tank”


In contrast to the weekly Investors Intelligence data out yesterday which revealed that newsletter writers are the most bullish since Dec ’07 and the least bearish since Oct ’07 with the balance expecting a correction, the AAII sentiment measurement of individual investors reflects a different opinion. Bulls were little changed on the week at 34 but is down from 51 two weeks ago while Bears rose 9 points to 49 and are up from 33 two weeks ago. The AAII data is much more fickle than the II but the difference in sentiment between the ‘experts’ and the individuals is worth noting.

Category: MacroNotes

King Report:



Let’s say that an aging baseball slugger who had abused performance-enhancing drugs for over a decade had a horrendous collapse in his hitting statistics. So the team put him on even stronger doses of steroids, HGH, testosterone, dianabol, insulin, protein shakes, creatine, glutamine and unknown powerful designer pharmaceuticals.

The team had him do Olympic and ballistic [weight] lifts, plyometrics and intense ‘core’ training. Though the slugger’s home runs and RBIs had fallen over 30% from the previous year, he started to hit one more HR per month and a few more RBIs.

This is the US economy and financial system. Trillions of dollars have been poured into the system and economy and trillions more have been pledged to buttress troubled entities. There have been nationalizations, record stimulus and various inducements for consumer to spend more money. And all this is producing is modest m/m gains or smaller losses!

At some point the US, like the slugger, must come off the juice, or the artificial boosts will blow them up.

Even though MLB has a shoddy enforcement and drug testing record at least it isn’t the entity injecting the massive amount of unnatural stimulants.

Upon further review yesterday’s economic data was not as jiggy as initially thought.

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Category: Think Tank

Commercial paper outstanding jumps

On a seasonally adjusted basis, commercial paper outstanding rose $43.7b, the largest gain since April and was mostly led by the asset backed category that saw a gain of $41.5b, the most since January and maybe is beginning to respond to some thawing out in that sector due to the Fed’s TALF program. Financial unsecured…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Economic data

Q2 GDP was left unchanged at -1% vs expectations of a fall to -1.5%. Personal Consumption was revised to a drop of 1% from -1.2% and vs an expected fall of 1.3%. Government spending was revised higher to a rise of 6.4% from 5.6%. Also helping was an upward revision to Exports. Offsetting this was…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

It’s time to start watching the kids

Similar to parents who realize after a period of no adult supervision, someone has to watch the kids to make sure they don’t get into too much trouble, after their stock market close yesterday China’s State Council said they want the steel, cement, coal, glass and power industries to reverse the excess capacity that has…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

What Do You Catch When You Chase Your Tail?

Good Evening: U.S. stocks went virtually nowhere today, allowing both the bears and the bulls to claim victory. Those predicting an imminent decline in U.S. share prices took note that a slight majority of stocks went down on a day when the economic data came in stronger than expected. For their part, those forecasting a…Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank

“Toto, I’ve a feeling we’re not in Kansas anymore”

“Toto, I’ve a feeling we’re not in Kansas anymore.” The USA, the bastion of global capitalism, entrepreneurship, with the goal of achieving the American dream is now home to people who would rather work for the government. According to Rasmussen Reports, a government job remains “the top employment choice in today’s economic environment.” While below…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

New Home Sales

July New Home Sales, about 15% of the market, totaled 433k annualized, 43k above estimates and up from a revised 395k in June. It is now at the highest level since Sept ’08. Months supply fell to 7.5 from 8.5 and to the lowest level since April ’07 and is an obvious big improvement as…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Durable Goods

July Durable Goods rose a much better than expected 4.9% vs the estimated gain of 3% but ex transports, new orders rose .8%, .1% less than expected. The June data for both headline and ex transports were revised higher. Non defense capital goods ex aircraft, the core capital spending component, fell .3% after healthy gains…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Bulls get more giddy and bears go into further hibernation

Stock market bullishness has reached a new high in this run from the March lows as measured by the weekly II survey of newsletter writers. Bulls rose to 51.6 from 48.3 last week and that is the highest since Dec ’07 while Bears fell to 19.8 from 23.1, the lowest since Oct ’07. This contrarian…Read More

Category: MacroNotes