Posts filed under “Think Tank”

U of Michigan confidence

The final June UoM confidence # rose to 70.8 from the initial reading and forecast of 69 and up from 68.7 in May. It is now at the highest level since Feb ’08 but the gain from the preliminary # was all in the Outlook component which rose to 69.2 from 65.4 (preliminary June #) while Current Conditions fell 1.3 points to 73.2 in preliminary reading. However, from May, current conditions rose 5.5 points while the Outlook was down a hair. Current conditions stand at the highest level since Sept ’08 while the Outlook is just shy of its highest since Oct ’07. One year inflation expectations were 3.1%, in line with the preliminary survey but up from 2.8% in May and at the highest level since Oct ’08. Today’s confidence survey stands in contrast to Wednesday’s ABC poll which fell to within one point of a record low dating back to 1985. With today’s # being a phone survey conducted within the past few days, it is a very timely indicator but only matters if it translates into a change in consumer behavior, rather than just with their thoughts. In Europe earlier, French consumer confidence rose to the most since March ’08.

Peter Boockvar

Managing Director

Equity Strategist

Miller Tabak + Co.

Office: 212-370-0346

Category: MacroNotes

Income/Spending/Savings Rate

May Personal Income rose 1.4%, well above expectations of a .3% gain and April was revised up by .2% with the influence being “the increased government social benefit payments associated with the” stimulus plan. Disposable income as a result rose 1.6% BUT ex these special factors, disposable income rose just .2% as wages and salary’s…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Bernanke Dodges Bullet; Markets Celebrate

Good Evening: As Thursday dawned, market participants were a little on edge. Yesterday’s FOMC statement was found a bit wanting by most investors, leaving them concerned about not only the Fed’s exit strategy from Quantitative Easing but also Chairman Bernanke’s exit strategy for a successful escape during today’s Congressional hearings on the BAC-MER deal. Those…Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank

7 yr note auction

The $27b 7 yr note auction and last of the week was solid (as were the prior two this week) as the yield was about 1-2 bps below where the when issued was priced right before and the bid to cover of 2.82 was the highest since they were reintroduced in Feb and above the…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Commercial paper outstanding

Commercial paper outstanding for the week fell by a sharp $47.5b and totals $1.15 trillion, the lowest since at least Nov ’00 that data is out and down from the record high of $2.22 trillion in July ’07. The decline was led by a $44.3b decline in nonfinancial CP to $108.7b, a 29% drop from…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Bernanke testimony

Ahead of Bernanke’s 10am testimony on the Bofa-Merrill deal where he and Paulson are being accused of strong arming Ken Lewis to follow thru with the deal on its original terms, it hit me the striking similarity in looks that Bernanke has with Frank Pentangeli (without the beard), the character in Godfather II that went…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Goldman Sachs: The Great American Bubble Machine

Try this PDF: Goldman Sachs: The Great American Bubble Machine ~~~

Category: Bailouts, Psychology, Think Tank

New Home Sales

May New Home Sales, a measure of contract signings of new homes, totaled 342k annualized, 18k less than expected and down a touch from 344k in April. Mortgage rates remained below 5% for most of the month so this data doesn’t reflect the recent rise but it does take into account the government’s $8,000 home…Read More

Category: MacroNotes


The FOMC began with talk on the economy that was very similar to the April one. “The pace of economic contraction is slowing.” It followed with the caveats of constrained household spending due to job losses, lower housing wealth and tight credit and also referenced businesses cutting back on fixed investment and staffing and they…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

King Report: Second Stimulus?

> Yesterday President Obama said a second stimulus package is not needed, for now. Do you think Ben Bernanke and the Fed will refute the president’s claim in its communiqué today? Not bloody likely! Obama’s ‘not yet’ on a second stimulus package is intended to assuage China and Japan’s concern over the US budget and…Read More

Category: Think Tank