Posts filed under “Think Tank”

10 year note auction

The 10 year note auction was on the light side as the yield at 3.734% was about 2-3 bps above where the when issued was trading and the bid to cover of 2.49 is slightly below the average seen this year of 2.54. The level of indirect bidders however totaled 45.7% which is above the previous two that included the new methodology in how it’s calculated but with not enough history now to draw any large conclusions. Who knows what impact or not the FOMC statement coming in one hour may have had on the auction.

Category: MacroNotes

King Report: Productivity Gains Not What They Appear

> U.S. productivity rises at fastest pace in six years So what. Over the past decade productivity gains have NOT been accompanied by higher real wages and living standards – a first in US history. Long-time readers know our crusade to debunk the ‘Great US Productivity’ miracle, which rests on faulty, if not fraudulent US…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Think Tank

3 year note auction

The 3 year note auction, the easiest of the big three this week because of its short maturity, was very good. The yield was about in line with expectations but the bid to cover of 2.89 is well above the average this year of 2.52 and the highest since Nov ’08. Indirect bidders totaled 62.5%…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Wholesale Inventories

June Wholesale Inventories, which make up about 25% of Business Inventories, fell a greater than expected 1.7% vs a forecasted drop of .9% and May was revised down by .4% to show a decline of 1.2%. The greater than expected fall IF followed by a similar drop in Business Inventories, will lead to a revision…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Baltic Dry Index falls for 9th straight day

Coincident with the July slowdown seen in the new bank loan data in China and also with a short term topping out in their stock market, the Baltic Dry Index today fell for a 9th straight day to the lowest level since May 18th. It’s down 25% over the 9 day stretch.

Category: MacroNotes

Productivity, NFIB and China

Over time, GDP growth is equal to population growth + productivity. With population growth in the US at about 1% and the 60 year average of productivity being 2.3%, GDP growth should be between 3-3.5% in order to maximize the country’s asset base. Anything below that means the US is not producing to its potential…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Where to Next for Commodities?

Good Evening: U.S. stocks took a bit of a breather today after seeing little to dislike in Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. The slight trimming to Friday’s gains came on light volume, and then only after another series of afternoon upticks. The weakest performers on Monday (and, actually, for much of the past week) were the…Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank

Rate hike odds

After fully pricing in a 25 bps rate hike by the January FOMC meeting midday Friday after the better than expected jobs data, the February fed funds contract is backing off and now pricing in a 76% chance of a hike. There are a few levers the Fed will undertake before they start raising the…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

King Report: NSA 1.33 Million Lost Jobs

> The US economy lost 1.33 million jobs NSA in July. Hallelujah! WooHoo! The recession is over!! Last July the US economy lost 1.401 million jobs NSA. The 68k gain is about the 66,848 per month margin of error for the BLS’s NFP prelim estimate. (Table 2F) The Net Business Birth/Death jobs for July are…Read More

Category: Think Tank

Show us the money

On the heels of Friday’s payroll data, consequent rise in interest rates and ahead of $75b of Treasury auctions this week (3, 10 and 30 yr maturities), Treasury Secretary Geithner likely spent the weekend doing his best Jerry Maquire imitation yelling ‘Show me the Money’ to the Chinese and others in order to avoid any…Read More

Category: MacroNotes