Posts filed under “Think Tank”

Reflection on 9/11

September 12, 2009

It has been two pensive days. Somehow the words won’t come. Difficult for me since I write 100 times a year.

I sit staring at the keyboard. No words.

Everyone is/was so busy with 9/11. Public moments of silence, ceremonies, TV filled with remembrances, talk shows, websites, commentaries, footage of planes and fires and people. Nice, polite, respectful mostly, but very busy.

Shhhh, I thought. Just sit with it. Sit in solitude. Then some words started to form. Softly, very quietly. Shhhh. Go slow. Sit with it. A few more words are now coming. But only a few.

This was last years “reflection.” http://www.cumber.com/commentary.aspx?file=091108.asp . Here’s the lead paragraph: “After seven years, these closed eyes still see the jumpers as vividly as I did that morning. I counted five in the few minutes between the time I first turned around to look at the smoldering North Tower and the time the second explosion rocked the South Tower. The couple holding hands and flinging themselves out of an uppermost floor right below the “Windows” restaurant are framed on my inner eyelids.”

The rest is there if you want to read it. For the curious, let me confess that I close my eyes and still see them jumping. No, that’s not true. I see them right now and my eyes are actually wide open and I’m looking at the screen while typing these few words at four o’clock in the morning.

But there is no more crying now. Pain has given way to ache and now to calm which has replaced fear. Is it a numbing calm? Or is it a calming numbness? How can one know the answer to that?

Shhhh. Softly. Just think about it. Let it wander in and around on the inside.

Just ponder the imponderables.

It’s okay to affirm life. We don’t celebrate the attack, but we don’t have to live in fear of a repeat.

Anger is still permitted. After 8 years we see it as a useless loss of life. What did the Jihadist fools accomplish?

And we pray that there is some just eternity and that Bin Laden and his ilk will rot in hell for the better part of it.

For us, just affirm life. And reflect with solitude and respect. Shhhh. Softly. Just sit with it.

David R. Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer, email: david.kotok@cumber.com

*********

Copyright 2009, Cumberland Advisors. All rights reserved.

Please feel free to forward this Commentary (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested.

Category: Think Tank, War/Defense

Gold net longs at record highs

According to the just reported CFTC data for the week ended Tuesday, the net spec long position in gold rose to an all time record high (dating back to 1993), up 22% on the week to a net 225k contracts. Silver net longs rose to the most since Aug ’08 and net longs in platinum…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

India vs the US: A Visual Comparison

Another interesting chart via Jess Bachman of WallStats: > Graphic via Mint

Category: Think Tank

Today’s data

The preliminary Sept U of Michigan confidence figure was 70.2, almost 3 points higher than expected and is up from 65.7 in Aug and is the 2nd highest reading going back to Sept ’08. Current Conditions rose 5.2 points to 71.8 to the most since June and the Outlook rose by 4.2 points to 69.2,…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Baby Bush: The Worst President in History?

Doug Casey is chairman of Casey Research, and is a best selling author, international investor, and entrepreneur. He travels the world looking for exceptional opportunities in real estate and undervalued companies in the natural resource sector (precious metals, oil and gas and more). The author of four best selling books, his Crisis Investing was #1…Read More

Category: Bailouts, Politics, Think Tank, War/Defense

Import Prices

August Import Prices rose 2% m/o/m, higher than estimates of a gain of 1%. The y/o/y drop was 15% mostly due to the fall in energy prices since last summer. Ex all fuels, m/o/m prices rose .4% and are down 5.1% y/o/y. The month of August saw little change in the $ but that of…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

China remains the straw that stirs the global economic drink

The most important country in the world, China, in terms of lighting the match under global economic growth had a slew of economic data overnight and the positive reaction sent the Shanghai index to a 3 week high. Most importantly, August Bank loans totaled 410.4b Yuan, about 90b more than expected and through 8 months…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

30 year bond auction

The 30 year bond auction was solid as the yield at 4.238% was below expectations of 4.27-4.29%. Also, the bid to cover at 2.92 is the highest since the 30 year was reintroduced in Feb ’06 and well above the average over the past year of 2.32. Indirect bidders totaled 46.5%, slightly below the previous…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Bill King: Bond Divergence

> During European trading on Wednesday, the dollar fell to a new ’09 low. This produced a SPU rally into the NYSE open. US traders then poured into stocks on a ‘cash is trash’ rally. But that was it for the rally. As we have asserted for months the major prop under stocks is dollar…Read More

Category: Think Tank

Morning stuff

The July Trade Deficit totaled $32b, almost $5b more than expected and is up from an upwardly revised $27.5b in June. It’s the highest since Jan and was due to a bigger than expected rise in imports which were up 4.7% while exports were up just 2.2%. Imports were in part boosted by a 7.6%…Read More

Category: MacroNotes