Posts filed under “Think Tank”

Commerical Paper

Commercial paper outstanding fell for an 8th straight week, led by an
$11.4b drop in domestic financial CP outstanding. The main theme behind
the fall in this category has been the corporate decision to term out
one’s financing needs and rely less on the very short term funding
source of the commercial paper market. The FDIC’s Temporary Liquidity
Guarantee Program (TLGP) initiated back in October, provided a cheaper
way for financial co’s to sell up to 3 year debt that would be
government guaranteed, thus providing competitive, longer term (relative
to CP) financing. Those financials who want to be free from the TARP,
have been issuing non FDIC guaranteed debt with BAC the last one to do
so with a 10 yr issue back on May 28th.

Category: MacroNotes

ECB’s Trichet

ECB President Trichet in his press conference is not breaking any new ground but did reiterate the belief of some that rates could go lower if need be (but i’m sure very reluctantly). He did lower both his growth and inflation forecasts for ’09 and for ’10, he modestly cut his GDP estimate but kept…Read More

Category: MacroNotes


Initial Jobless Claims totaled 621k, right in line with expectations BUT the main positive surprise was the 15k drop in Continuing Claims off its record high which came in 120k less than expected and was the first decline since January. The insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5%, the highest since 1982 where it got…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

morning note

A 50 bps interest rate cut from Russia’s central bank and Latvia saying they will maintain their peg to the euro after yesterday’s failed bill auction (based on fears of a devaluation) pressured Swiss banks that are exposed to Eastern Europe, are helping to lift some European markets. The FTSE turned negative though after the…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

On June 10, 2009, the Washington DC chapter of Professional Risk Managers International Association is holding an important event entitled “Regulation of Credit Default Swaps & Collateralized Debt Obligations.” The event will be held in Downtown Washington and will feature a panel discussion on the proposal by the US Treasury to reform the credit default…Read More

Category: Think Tank


Bernanke’s testimony on the economy in front of the House Budget Committee strikes a similar tone as the previous FOMC statement with respect to economic activity and the less negative theme but still expects rises in the unemployment rate over the next few months as it lags. The expectations of a 2nd half rebound, albeit…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

ISM services

The May ISM services index was 44, 1 pt less than expected but up a touch from April and is at the highest since Oct ’08. The Business Activity component fell almost 3 pts to 42.4 but is in line with the 6 month avg and is about 9 pts above the Nov low. Unlike…Read More

Category: MacroNotes


ADP said May private sector jobs fell by 532k, about in line with expectations of a drop of 525k and vs a decline of 545k in April (revised from -491k). The level of initial jobless claims of about 625k that we’ve seen does fit with this level of job losses, which has stabilized, albeit at…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

The King Report: Dollar Tanking, Commodities Rising

> The dollar tanked again on Tuesday but commodities turned mixed. Commodity leaders, principally oil and copper, declined. This strongly suggests that commodities will start retrenching. And because commodities have led stocks higher, stocks are likely to follow. Bloomberg: The dollar dropped to its lowest level against the euro this year on speculation record U.S….Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank

Housing pluses and minuses

Comments in the earnings reports from homebuilders Toll and HOV highlight the signs of stability but also still the fragility in housing. Toll’s ceo said “with interest rates near historic lows and housing affordability near historic highs, it appears that some buyers are beginning to re-enter the new home market.” HOV’s ceo echoed something similar…Read More

Category: MacroNotes