Posts filed under “Think Tank”

morning note

A 50 bps interest rate cut from Russia’s central bank and Latvia saying
they will maintain their peg to the euro after yesterday’s failed bill
auction (based on fears of a devaluation) pressured Swiss banks that are
exposed to Eastern Europe, are helping to lift some European markets.
The FTSE turned negative though after the BoE left rates unchanged as
expected and kept the size of their asset purchases of 125b pounds
intact and said it will take another two months to finish. Following
rumors, the UK government said talk of PM Brown resigning was ‘complete
nonsense.’ The ECB left rates unchanged also as expected and we’ll hear
Trichet’s thoughts on policy at 8:30. Highlighted by German Chancellor
Merkel’s criticism of easy Fed policy, again, the ECB is not going down
the same path as the Fed. Initial Jobless Claims are expected to total
620k and would be the 8th straight week below 650k but because of the
lack of hiring, Continuing Claims are expected to rise to another new
high. Retail comps so far look light.

Category: MacroNotes

On June 10, 2009, the Washington DC chapter of Professional Risk Managers International Association is holding an important event entitled “Regulation of Credit Default Swaps & Collateralized Debt Obligations.” The event will be held in Downtown Washington and will feature a panel discussion on the proposal by the US Treasury to reform the credit default…Read More

Category: Think Tank

Bernanke

Bernanke’s testimony on the economy in front of the House Budget Committee strikes a similar tone as the previous FOMC statement with respect to economic activity and the less negative theme but still expects rises in the unemployment rate over the next few months as it lags. The expectations of a 2nd half rebound, albeit…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

ISM services

The May ISM services index was 44, 1 pt less than expected but up a touch from April and is at the highest since Oct ’08. The Business Activity component fell almost 3 pts to 42.4 but is in line with the 6 month avg and is about 9 pts above the Nov low. Unlike…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

ADP

ADP said May private sector jobs fell by 532k, about in line with expectations of a drop of 525k and vs a decline of 545k in April (revised from -491k). The level of initial jobless claims of about 625k that we’ve seen does fit with this level of job losses, which has stabilized, albeit at…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

The King Report: Dollar Tanking, Commodities Rising

> The dollar tanked again on Tuesday but commodities turned mixed. Commodity leaders, principally oil and copper, declined. This strongly suggests that commodities will start retrenching. And because commodities have led stocks higher, stocks are likely to follow. Bloomberg: The dollar dropped to its lowest level against the euro this year on speculation record U.S….Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank

Housing pluses and minuses

Comments in the earnings reports from homebuilders Toll and HOV highlight the signs of stability but also still the fragility in housing. Toll’s ceo said “with interest rates near historic lows and housing affordability near historic highs, it appears that some buyers are beginning to re-enter the new home market.” HOV’s ceo echoed something similar…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

It’s Still “All Just One Trade”

Good Evening: The major U.S. stock market averages closed with smallish advances after trading in a narrow range for most of the day on Tuesday. Commodity prices joined equities by also churning and consolidating recent gains, leaving the real action to bonds and the dollar. While the former rose and the latter fell, the approach…Read More

Category: Think Tank

$ index

For the Fibonacci followers out there, the DXY (US$ index) at the current level of 78.38 (down sharply again) has retraced 61.8% of its rally off the record low of April ’08. The implications the $ weakness has for inflation and interest rates and thus for the cost of financing massive deficits at the government…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

We loaded the final Q1 2009 data from the FDIC into The IRA Bank Monitor on Friday and the results are rather striking. As you will recall, our preliminary Stress Index score for the banking industry was over 5.7 or half an order of magnitude above the 1995 benchmark year. This result excluded the ratings for the lead units of the largest money center banks, data for which was not released until last week.

Category: Think Tank