Posts filed under “Think Tank”

7 yr note auction

The $27b 7 yr note auction and last of the week was solid (as were the prior two this week) as the yield was about 1-2 bps below where the when issued was priced right before and the bid to cover of 2.82 was the highest since they were reintroduced in Feb and above the average of 2.29 in the prior four auctions. The level of indirect bidders totaled 67.2% well above the average but is apples to oranges now in comparison as the Treasury has altered how they calculate the number. The Treasury comes to market in two weeks with a 3, 10 and 30 yr. With the Fed’s QE policy still firmly on track based on yesterday’s statement and no change in fiscal policy in DC, we have to wonder why there is such strength and whether it’s because of new concerns with economic growth or something else. Either way, the Treasury sales were a success this week.

Category: MacroNotes

Commercial paper outstanding

Commercial paper outstanding for the week fell by a sharp $47.5b and totals $1.15 trillion, the lowest since at least Nov ’00 that data is out and down from the record high of $2.22 trillion in July ’07. The decline was led by a $44.3b decline in nonfinancial CP to $108.7b, a 29% drop from…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Bernanke testimony

Ahead of Bernanke’s 10am testimony on the Bofa-Merrill deal where he and Paulson are being accused of strong arming Ken Lewis to follow thru with the deal on its original terms, it hit me the striking similarity in looks that Bernanke has with Frank Pentangeli (without the beard), the character in Godfather II that went…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Goldman Sachs: The Great American Bubble Machine

Try this PDF: Goldman Sachs: The Great American Bubble Machine ~~~

Category: Bailouts, Psychology, Think Tank

New Home Sales

May New Home Sales, a measure of contract signings of new homes, totaled 342k annualized, 18k less than expected and down a touch from 344k in April. Mortgage rates remained below 5% for most of the month so this data doesn’t reflect the recent rise but it does take into account the government’s $8,000 home…Read More

Category: MacroNotes


The FOMC began with talk on the economy that was very similar to the April one. “The pace of economic contraction is slowing.” It followed with the caveats of constrained household spending due to job losses, lower housing wealth and tight credit and also referenced businesses cutting back on fixed investment and staffing and they…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

King Report: Second Stimulus?

> Yesterday President Obama said a second stimulus package is not needed, for now. Do you think Ben Bernanke and the Fed will refute the president’s claim in its communiqué today? Not bloody likely! Obama’s ‘not yet’ on a second stimulus package is intended to assuage China and Japan’s concern over the US budget and…Read More

Category: Think Tank

Durable Goods

New orders for May Durable Goods unexpectedly rose both headline and ex transports. Headline rose 1.8% vs a forecasted drop of .9% while ex transports rose 1.1% vs an expected fall of .5%. The prior month was revised lower by a touch. Non defense capital goods ex aircraft, the pure cap ex component, rose a…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Consumer Confidence/Mortgage applications

The MBA said weekly mortgage applications rose 6.6% as refi’s rose 5.9% and purchases gained 7.3% as the average 30 year mortgage rate fell to 5.44%, down 13 bps from two weeks before. The gain in refi’s though comes on the heels of an almost 50% drop over the past month. The purchase component rose…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

What will the history books say?

When the history books are written on the great credit bubble and its crash, how will they depict the visual of the fate of the $14 trillion US economy and its 300mm citizens being largely influenced by about 20 men and women sitting around a large mahogany table in a building on Constitution Ave in…Read More

Category: MacroNotes