Posts filed under “Think Tank”

Category: Taxes and Policy, Think Tank, Wages & Income

Central Bank Solvency and Inflation

Central Bank Solvency and Inflation Marco Del Negro and Christopher A. Sims APRIL 01, 2015     The monetary base in the United States, defined as currency plus bank reserves, grew from about $800 billion in 2008 to $2 trillion in 2012, and to roughly $4 trillion at the end of 2014 (see chart below)….Read More

Category: Think Tank

April Fools: Apple to Buy Spotify

The price? A COOL TEN BILLION! It had to happen. Apple’s stock rises when it has a monopoly. And despite all the iPhone profits, Android has greater worldwide market share. This is not the iPod revolution, wherein a seamless hardware/software combination, of iPod iTunes and FairPlay DRM, ensured that no other player could gain traction….Read More

Category: M&A, Music, Technology, Think Tank

Combining Models for Forecasting and Policy Analysis

by Marco Del Negro, Raiden Hasegawa, and Frank Schorfheide Model uncertainty is pervasive. Economists, bloggers, policymakers all have different views of how the world works and what economic policies would make it better. These views are, like it or not, models. Some people spell them out in their entirety, equations and all. Others refuse to…Read More

Category: Think Tank

The Anomaly That Is The Payroll Report

Goldman Sachs – David Mericle: Has Employment Growth Been Running Too Hot? (No Link) We use the model to project employment growth through 2016. To do so, we use our baseline growth and investment forecasts and assume that the recent rate of multi-factor productivity growth remains unchanged. To be clear, we assume that GDP growth…Read More

Category: Think Tank

Majority of Hires Never Report Looking for a Job

Majority of Hires Never Report Looking for a Job Carlos Carrillo-Tudela, Bart Hobijn, Patryk Perkowski, and Ludo Visschers FRBSF, 2015-10 March 30, 2015         Every month, millions of workers search for new jobs although they already have one. About one-tenth of these searchers switch employers in the following month. However, most of the…Read More

Category: Employment, Think Tank

Labor Market Slack and Monetary Policy

Category: Employment, Federal Reserve, Think Tank

Are Wages Flat or Falling? Decomposing Recent Changes in the Average Wage Provides an Answer Joel Elvery and Christopher Vecchio Cleveland Fed 03.27.2015         There recently has been a lot of concern about stagnant wages. Most of the discussion has focused on the median and average hourly wage, but these measures are…Read More

Category: Think Tank, Wages & Income

Low Interest Rates and Financial Stability

Category: Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Think Tank

Category: Real Estate, Think Tank