Posts filed under “Think Tank”

Durable Goods

July Durable Goods rose a much better than expected 4.9% vs the estimated gain of 3% but ex transports, new orders rose .8%, .1% less than expected. The June data for both headline and ex transports were revised higher. Non defense capital goods ex aircraft, the core capital spending component, fell .3% after healthy gains in the two prior months and is why the S&P futures likely traded modestly lower after the report. Leading the headline gain was a 107.2% rise in nondefense aircraft and a .9% gain in vehicles and parts (as many auto plants ramped up again). Orders for computers/electronics, electrical equipment, primary metals and fabricated metals rose while machinery fell by 6.6%. Shipments (gets directly plugged into GDP) rose 2%. The inventory to shipments ratio fell to 1.81 from 1.87 and to the lowest since Dec ’08 as total inventories fell by .8%, down for a 10th straight month but the pace of decline was the smallest since Feb. Bottom line, the data further confirms stability as ex transport new orders are up for a 3rd straight month but still remain lower by 20.4% y/o/y and thus reflects that even a modest reversion to the mean can lead to a sharp rebound in orders. The key is whether the rebound expands beyond the auto sector.

Category: MacroNotes

Bulls get more giddy and bears go into further hibernation

Stock market bullishness has reached a new high in this run from the March lows as measured by the weekly II survey of newsletter writers. Bulls rose to 51.6 from 48.3 last week and that is the highest since Dec ’07 while Bears fell to 19.8 from 23.1, the lowest since Oct ’07. This contrarian…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Stocks Shout “Recovery!”; What Do Other Markets Say?

Good Evening: U.S. stocks rose once again on Tuesday, halting its latest losing streak at one. What was interesting about today’s rather modest closing gains is that, given the news flow, they could have been quite a bit better. Ben Bernanke was reappointed to his position as Fed Chairman, home prices actually rose a tad…Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank

Seasonality of Home Prices

To highlight the seasonality of housing and its impact on pricing where the spring is the busiest of the year, the S&P/Case Shiller Index, which does not seasonally adjust its m/o/m pricing, has shown its best performance in Q2 in every year except one going back to ’01. ’09 is of course not complete but…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Bloomberg Lawsuit

Bloomberg Lawsuit Judgment

Category: Legal, Think Tank

Consumer Confidence

August Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board was a better than expected 54.1 vs the consensus of 47.9 and up from 47.4 in July. It’s the highest since May which at the time was the most since Aug ’08. Almost all of the improvement was in the Expectations component which rose about 10 points while…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index

The June S&P/CaseShiller 20 city Home Price Index fell 15.44% y/o/y, better than the expected fall of 16.4%. The index rose 1.4% m/o/m, the 2nd month in a row of m/o/m gains. From the record high, prices are down by 31.3%, off the high to low drop of 32.6% at the low in April. Every…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

It all comes down to home prices

When home prices stop going down, the worst of the credit crisis will have ended as banks can confidently quantify their exposure, investors can feel comfortable with taking on certain risk, many homeowners will stop the drowning on their mortgage, home buyers won’t have lower prices to wait for and the important wealth effect can…Read More

Category: MacroNotes


Bernanke! August 24, 2009 Markets will like the removal of uncertainty now that President Obama has committed to Fed Chairman Bernanke’s reappointment. Confirmation by the US Senate is expected without much difficulty. History shows that uncertainty is the enemy of markets. Much speculation about Bernanke and a possible Summers succession has swirled in market analysis…Read More

Category: Think Tank

To be sure, this may be much ado about nothing and Goldman shares rallied sharply early Monday, before fading in the afternoon with the broader market. Still, if nothing else, this “trading huddle” story is another black eye for the white shoe firm, whose summer of discontent has so far featured:

  • Matt Taibbi’s blistering “vampire squid” feature in Rolling Stone.
  • Rumors of Goldman front-running the market via high-frequency trading software after one of its former developers was arrested for allegedly trying to steal is proprietary trading code.
  • A New York Times story detailing former Goldman CEO Hank Paulson’s numerous calls to current CEO Lloyd Blankfein last fall, when Paulson was Treasury Secretary and Goldman was one of many firms in line for government largess.

Category: Think Tank, Video