Posts filed under “Think Tank”


In response to the S&P move on the outlook for the sovereign credit rating of the UK, its 5 yr CDS has risen today to 82 bps from 72.5 bps yesterday and is at the highest level since May 6th. For comparison, Italy is at 90 bps up from 84 yesterday, Japan is at 50, unchanged, the US is at 37 bps vs 34, France is at 37 up from 31, and Germany is at 34.5 bps vs 31.

Category: Think Tank

Poole’s Market Solution to Fix Banks

Former Fed Governor William Poole Here is a proposal, not at all original but deserving of serious public discussion. As a condition of enjoying the benefits of a bank charter, every bank must issue 10-year subordinated notes equal to 10 per cent of its total liabilities. The specification can be adjusted, but this one serves…Read More

Category: Bailouts, Credit, Think Tank


Treasuries reversed to the downside at about 11am after the results of today’s Federal Reserve purchase details of US Treasuries hit the NY Fed’s website. While the absolute amount of treasuries purchased was similar to yesterday at $7.4b, the amount offered to them was $45.7b up from $37.2b yesterday and it was the supply on…Read More

Category: Think Tank

Philly Fed

The May Philly Fed survey came in at -22.6, 4.6 pts weaker than expected but is a slight improvement from April’s reading of -24.4 and is the 3th month in a row of less negative #’s. New Orders weakened a touch to -25.9 from -24.3 but Backlogs rose a touch to the highest since Sept….Read More

Category: Think Tank

Morning Note: Bitch Slapped

It never matters until it does. I’m referring to the ever growing burden of debt. It’s ok for a while as long as lenders continue to go along and then a point is reached where enough is enough and it turns into an ever tightening noose and lenders balk. Her Majesty’s Throne in the UK…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Smarter Regulation Should Precede TARP Repayments

Good Evening: A rally on Wednesday morning gave way to a sell-off in the afternoon that left the major averages with modest losses. Hewlett-Packard, Bank of America, TARP repayments, and the Fed minutes all vied for investor attention during a session which saw reflation-oriented investments benefit the most. I will cover the topic of TARP…Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank

How The Bank Stress Tests Were Done

Category: Bailouts, Credit, Think Tank

Ben and the Boys

While the minutes from the April FOMC meeting mentioned that some members raised the possibility of an increase in the total amount of asset purchases, one has to wonder what they may be thinking now with the US$ index lower by almost 6% since the day before the April meeting, the CRB higher by 12%…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

FOMC minutes

The minutes from the last FOMC meeting gave its economic forecast for growth, unemployment and inflation. They modestly raised its 2nd half ’09 GDP estimate but trimmed its ’10 GDP range. They expect the unemployment rate to reach above 9% from below 8% previously. Their inflation forecasts were little changed. The rest of the minutes…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

The stock market is differentiating

This pullback in the market off the morning’s highs is again being led by the three most important groups in my opinion when analyzing the state of the US economy, retail, housing and financials. The weakness last week was also led by these three groups while at the same time the reflation trade outperforms, helped…Read More

Category: MacroNotes