Posts filed under “Think Tank”


The FOMC began with talk on the economy that was very similar to the April one. “The pace of economic contraction is slowing.” It followed with the caveats of constrained household spending due to job losses, lower housing wealth and tight credit and also referenced businesses cutting back on fixed investment and staffing and they believe the economy will be weak for a time. The main change came in the 2nd part when they mentioned the rise in commodity prices BUT they continue to hang their hat on the ‘output gap’ in giving them comfort that “inflation will remain subdued for some time.” The final part was identical to the April comments in saying the fed funds will be at an exceptionally low level for an extended period and maintaining their current QE plan. Traders were looking to see how the Fed was going to respond to the game of chicken with the bond market and the Fed somewhat turned their head and bonds are lower in response. Fed members can say they are not conducting the monetization of US debt as they couch it in helping the markets but its just semantics.

Peter Boockvar

Managing Director

Equity Strategist

Miller Tabak + Co.

Category: MacroNotes

King Report: Second Stimulus?

> Yesterday President Obama said a second stimulus package is not needed, for now. Do you think Ben Bernanke and the Fed will refute the president’s claim in its communiqué today? Not bloody likely! Obama’s ‘not yet’ on a second stimulus package is intended to assuage China and Japan’s concern over the US budget and…Read More

Category: Think Tank

Durable Goods

New orders for May Durable Goods unexpectedly rose both headline and ex transports. Headline rose 1.8% vs a forecasted drop of .9% while ex transports rose 1.1% vs an expected fall of .5%. The prior month was revised lower by a touch. Non defense capital goods ex aircraft, the pure cap ex component, rose a…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Consumer Confidence/Mortgage applications

The MBA said weekly mortgage applications rose 6.6% as refi’s rose 5.9% and purchases gained 7.3% as the average 30 year mortgage rate fell to 5.44%, down 13 bps from two weeks before. The gain in refi’s though comes on the heels of an almost 50% drop over the past month. The purchase component rose…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

What will the history books say?

When the history books are written on the great credit bubble and its crash, how will they depict the visual of the fate of the $14 trillion US economy and its 300mm citizens being largely influenced by about 20 men and women sitting around a large mahogany table in a building on Constitution Ave in…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Mortgage Broker’s Anti-Appraisal Reform Lobbying Effort

Call to Action _June 4,2009

Category: Real Estate, Think Tank, Valuation

NAR Anti Appraisal Reform Lobbying Effort

TO: State Association Executive Officers State Association Presidents FROM: NAR Government Affairs DATE: 19 June 2009 RE: Fly-In Head’s Up Please note this notice is going to all state executive officers and state presidents. We will be sending Fly-In details on Monday June 22, 2009 to the states who have Members of Congress and/or United…Read More

Category: Legal, Real Estate, Regulation, Think Tank

NAR Urges 18 Month Moratorium on Appraisal Reform

Letter from Charles McMillan, 2009 President, National Association of REALTORS urging an 18 month moratorium on the Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC) to Andrew Cuomo, NY Attorney General and James B. Lockhart III, Federal Housing Finance Agency: HVCC Moratorium Lockheart

Category: Real Estate, Regulation, Think Tank

Home Valuation Code of Conduct

Home Valuation Code of Conduct ~~~ Source: Fannie Mae

Category: Credit, Legal, Real Estate, Think Tank

Is the Great Recession Over?

Good Evening: In the wake of yesterday’s beating, U.S. stocks were mostly unmoved today by a series of new stories and economic releases. Much of today’s trading desk debates centered on the current Fed meeting and the exit strategies from quantitative easing the FOMC may or may not announce tomorrow. Given the uncertainty ahead of…Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank