Posts filed under “Think Tank”


May payrolls fell by just 345k, much better than estimates of a drop of 520k and the two prior months were revised higher by 82k. However, due to a 437k fall in the household survey and a rise in the labor force, the unemployment rate fell to 9.4%, .2% more than expected at to the highest since Aug ’83. The U6 rate rose to 16.4% from 15.8%. There was a big drop in the level of construction firings as they fell just 59k following 4 months of triple digit declines. Financial services also shed just 30k jobs and Retail jobs fell 18k, both better than recent trends. Education/health added 44k which is above the recent trend. Leisure, hospitality added 3k and temp jobs fell just 7k, a big improvement. Govt jobs fell by 7k, led by the fed’l govt (amazingly). A caveat in the beat was the B/D model which added 220k, 44k more than May ’08 which is a statistical fluke as the economy is worse today than it was in May ’08, thus today’s # is overstated.

Category: MacroNotes

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According to estimates, the US economy shed 520k non farm jobs in May, the 7th straight month above 500k but the smallest job loss of the 7. The unemployment rate though is expected to rise to 9.2%, the highest since Sept 1983, from 8.9% in April as the US economy needs to generate at least…Read More

Category: MacroNotes


A day after Bernanke testified in Congress that “we anticipate that inflation will remain low” due to “the slack in resource utilization”, “notwithstanding recent increases in the prices of oil and other commodities,” gold is just 2.6% off all time record highs. In fact, of the 19 commodities in the CRB index, it is the…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Commerical Paper

Commercial paper outstanding fell for an 8th straight week, led by an $11.4b drop in domestic financial CP outstanding. The main theme behind the fall in this category has been the corporate decision to term out one’s financing needs and rely less on the very short term funding source of the commercial paper market. The…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

ECB’s Trichet

ECB President Trichet in his press conference is not breaking any new ground but did reiterate the belief of some that rates could go lower if need be (but i’m sure very reluctantly). He did lower both his growth and inflation forecasts for ’09 and for ’10, he modestly cut his GDP estimate but kept…Read More

Category: MacroNotes


Initial Jobless Claims totaled 621k, right in line with expectations BUT the main positive surprise was the 15k drop in Continuing Claims off its record high which came in 120k less than expected and was the first decline since January. The insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5%, the highest since 1982 where it got…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

morning note

A 50 bps interest rate cut from Russia’s central bank and Latvia saying they will maintain their peg to the euro after yesterday’s failed bill auction (based on fears of a devaluation) pressured Swiss banks that are exposed to Eastern Europe, are helping to lift some European markets. The FTSE turned negative though after the…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

On June 10, 2009, the Washington DC chapter of Professional Risk Managers International Association is holding an important event entitled “Regulation of Credit Default Swaps & Collateralized Debt Obligations.” The event will be held in Downtown Washington and will feature a panel discussion on the proposal by the US Treasury to reform the credit default…Read More

Category: Think Tank


Bernanke’s testimony on the economy in front of the House Budget Committee strikes a similar tone as the previous FOMC statement with respect to economic activity and the less negative theme but still expects rises in the unemployment rate over the next few months as it lags. The expectations of a 2nd half rebound, albeit…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

ISM services

The May ISM services index was 44, 1 pt less than expected but up a touch from April and is at the highest since Oct ’08. The Business Activity component fell almost 3 pts to 42.4 but is in line with the 6 month avg and is about 9 pts above the Nov low. Unlike…Read More

Category: MacroNotes