Posts filed under “Think Tank”

Final July U of Michigan confidence

The final July U of Michigan confidence number was 1 point higher than expected at 66 and up from 64.6 in the preliminary reading but is still down from 70.8 in June which was the highest since Feb ’08. The improvement in the final survey was led by the Outlook component which rose 2.3 points while Current Conditions were up just .1 point. From June, Current Conditions fell 2.7 points and the Outlook fell 6 points. One year inflation expectations fell to 2.9% from the preliminary level of 3% and 3.1% in June likely due to lower gasoline prices which are down $.16 this month according to AAA, which if sustained, equates to an annualized savings to the consumer in the aggregate of around $22b. Confidence data is never market moving and is more anecdotal in nature as how individuals feel can differ from how they act.

Category: MacroNotes

Be Careful What You Ask For . . .

David R. Kotok co-founded Cumberland Advisors in 1973 and has been its Chief Investment Officer since inception. He holds a B.S. in Economics from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, an M.S. in Organizational Dynamics from The School of Arts and Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania, and a Masters in Philosophy from…Read More

Category: Federal Reserve, Think Tank

Revenue misses continue

Revenue misses from MSFT, AMZN, KLAC, AXP and BNI has the futures below fair value but well off their lows as European stocks rallied at around 4am when Germany’s July IFO business confidence number was released and was almost 1 point more than expected rising to the highest level since Oct ’08. Also, the Euro…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Nobody Likes Missing Out on History

Good Evening; Unless you’ve been in a cave or in meetings all day, you know by now that U.S. stocks were kited to new highs today. And that’s really all you need to know. There was a batch of reasons given, from economic data to corporate earnings, but the biggest reason for today’s surge was…Read More

Category: Markets, Think Tank

Existing Home Sales

June Existing Home Sales totaled 4.89mm annualized, 50k more than expected but May was revised down by exactly 50k to 4.72mm so taken together about in line. It is though the 3rd month in a row of gains and its at the highest level since Oct ’08 as both single family and condos/co-ops saw sales…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

NDX RSI at highest since Oct ’07

The Relative Strength Index (RSI, defined as a non trending indicator that measures the momentum of a security to determine whether it is in an overbought or oversold condition according to Bloomberg) of the NDX is at the highest level since Oct ’07. RSI is just a snapshot perspective of a particular move and doesn’t…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Emergency Unemployment Compensation

Within the weekly jobless claims data, the Labor Dept also includes a category called Emergency Unemployment Compensation which includes those that have exhausted the 26 week period of receiving claims. It includes the extra 20 weeks that were added in the stimulus package and another 13 weeks above that for certain states that have unemployment…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims totaled 554k, 3k less than expected but the prior week was revised up by 2k. Continuing Claims continued to fall, by 88k for the week and was 165k less than expected. Both are impacted by the unusual seasonal adjustments this year because of the differing timing of auto plant shutdowns. However, continuing…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Fed’s Fisher on Treasury purchases

Non voting member Fisher of the Fed is giving his own ‘personal’ opinion on the continuation of the Fed’s purchase plan of US Treasuries in a speech he’s giving on the economy. He does not wish “to expand or extend our purchases of Treasuries beyond the cumulative $300b planned by this fall.” He said “we…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Households and home prices

As the sustainability and depth of an US economic recovery will come down to the financial health of households and home prices, today we get data on Existing Home Sales and Jobless Claims. Jobless Claims may have one more week of seasonal distortions due to auto plant shutdowns that didn’t occur in July because they…Read More

Category: MacroNotes