Posts filed under “Think Tank”

A Fully Fledged Garden of Economic Recovery?

Marshall Auerback is a Denver, Colorado-based global portfolio strategist for RAB Capital plc and a Fellow with the Economists for Peace and Security (http://www.epsusa.org/). He is a frequent contributor to the blog, Credit Writedowns, and the Japan Policy Research Institute (www.jpri.org) and a new contributor to The Big Picture.

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Are Ben Bernanke’s “green shoots” metamorphosing into a fully fledged garden of economic recovery? Judging from the recent euphoria of the market, it certainly appears that way.

Whilst we have not been in the camp that has tended to see every green shoot as an overflowing weed, we certainly thought the market was increasingly pricing in economic oblivion in February, a Great Depression II, if you will. As we have studied the Great Depression, however, we have been increasingly struck by the differences between now and then. Whilst this is the most severe recession of the post W.W. II period, bear in mind that there has never been as vigorous monetary and fiscal policy response than what is now occurring. By way of illustration, let me point out that the amount of crude in the government Strategic Petroleum Reserve = 700 million barrels @ $50 =$35 billion.

The Treasury gold position is worth $235 billion. This week alone the treasury will sell over $100 billion of paper of which at least $70billion will be in notes.

So one can make a fairly compelling case that we have seen major lows, at least as far as the commodity complex goes. And there is increasing evidence of stabilisation in the housing market, notably in areas such as California. Additionally, we have seen a major inventory liquidation, which always happens in a slump, where production falls more rapidly than consumption does. Eventually you have to reorder.

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Category: Economy, Think Tank

Bernanke speaking on Jekyll Island, ironic?

With regards to the Fed, I’ve been highly critical of them over many years, believing that it was their unstable and easy money monetary policy that sowed the seeds for the massive credit bubble that has now popped. The FOMC’s policy response, led by Bernanke who was a key player in the Greenspan 1% fed…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Commodity Inflation

With the CRB index rising to within just 1% of its high of 2009, the implied inflation rate in the 10 yr TIPS has broken out to the highest level since Sept 30th at 1.575%. On Tuesday, Bernanke said that he expects inflation to be quite contained over the next couple of years while at…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Words from the (Investment) Wise: 5.10.09

Words from the (investment) wise for the week that was (May 4 – 10, 2009)

One of the definitions of “stress” offered by the Merriam-Webster dictionary is “bodily or mental tension resulting from factors that tend to alter an existent equilibrium”. Well, any bodily or mental tension investors might have been suffering from as a result of financial factors were shrugged off on Thursday with the announcement by US regulators that ten of the nation’s largest banks had to add a total of “only” $74.6 billion in equity following the completion of stress tests. However, whether this will indeed restore the equilibrium remains to be seen.

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Source: Walt Handelsman

The diagram below, courtesy of the Financial Times, summarizes the stress test results in a nutshell. Click here or on the image below for a larger graphic.

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Source: Financial Times

As investors welcomed the less-than-feared stress-test results and their hopes for an early economic recovery mounted, they drove up the prices of risky assets such as equities, oil and commodities, precious metals, emerging-market bonds and currencies, and high-yielding corporate bonds. On the other hand, traditional safe havens like developed-market government bonds and the US dollar experienced selling pressure.

With investors’ confidence being buoyed up, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) declined by 9.2% during the week to 32.1 – a far cry from more than 80 in October and a sign that markets are returning to more normal behavior.

The performance of the major asset classes is summarized by the chart below.

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Source: StockCharts.com

Marking nine straight weeks of gains, the MSCI World Index surged by 6.4% (YTD +3.6%) on the week, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index by 9.4% (YTD +27.9%) and the S&P 500 Index by 5.9% (YTD +2.9%). Serving as a reminder of the severity of the bear market, these indices are still down by 43.3%, 45.8% and 40.6% respectively since the October 2007 bull market highs.

With the exception of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the UK FTSE 100 Index, most major global stock markets have now moved into positive territory for the year to date.

Click here or on the table below for a larger image.

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Returns around the world ranged from top performers Ukraine (+20.5%), Serbia (+20.0%), Kazakhstan (+19.4%), Peru (+17.9%) and Singapore (+16.6%) to Barbados (-4.1%), Slovakia (-2.3%), Bangladesh (-2.0%), Pakistan (-1.0%) and Tunisia (-0.9%) which experienced headwinds. (Click here to access a complete list of global stock market movements, as supplied by Emerginvest.)

With only a handful of US companies still to report first-quarter earnings, 62% of the companies that have reported have beaten analysts’ earnings expectations. According to Bespoke, this earnings season will be the first quarter-over-quarter increase in the “beat rate” since the third quarter of 2006. “When the ‘beat rate’ started to decline in 2007, it was definitely a warning signal for the market, and this quarter’s increase is hopefully the start of a new positive trend. As long as analysts remain behind the curve, and companies exceed expectations, stocks will have a solid foundation to build on,” said Bespoke.

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Source: Bespoke

As far as leadership since the start of the nine-week-old rally is concerned, the surging Financial SPDR (XLF) is by far the top performer among the economic sector exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Interestingly, cyclical sectors such as the Industrial SPDR (XLI), Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) and Materials SPDR (XLB) all outperformed the S&P 500, whereas the traditional defensive sectors like Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP), Health Care SPDR (XLV) and Utilities SPDR (XLU) all lagged the broader market. This is the type of pattern one would expect typically to emerge during a market base formation development.

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Source: StockCharts.com

John Nyaradi (Wall Street Sector Selector) reports that the strongest ETFs on the week were KBW Bank (KBE) (+34.8%), PowerShares FTSE RAFI Financial (PRFF) (+30.6%) and Rydex S&P Equal Weight Financial (RYF) (+26.5%). On the other end of the performance scale ProShares Short Financial (SEF) (-15.9%), iShares Goldman Sachs Semiconductor (IGW) (-4.0%) and Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (EDV) (-3.3%) were underwater.

On the credit front, the TED spread (i.e. three-month dollar LIBOR less three-month Treasury Bills – a measure of perceived credit risk in the economy) narrowed by 10 basis points during the past week. Since the TED spread’s peak of 4.65% on October 10 the measure has eased to an 11-month low of 0.76% – still well above the 38-point spread it averaged in the 12 months prior to the start of the crisis, but nevertheless a strong move in the right direction.

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Source: Fullermoney

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Category: Economy, Markets, Think Tank

Interesting Amendment on the Federal Reserve Audits

This is really interesting. A few days ago, Senator Chuck Grassley got an amendment passed by the Senate that lets the GAO audit the Fed’s lending to individual companies (such as Citigroup and Bank of America) and the Maiden Lane entities. The actual amendment in PDF form has a bunch of handwriting on it, because…Read More

Category: Bailouts, Taxes and Policy, Think Tank

Green Shoots or Dandelion Weeds?

Go to Google. Type in “green shoots.” In about a 10th of a second you will find 28,900,000 references. Scrolling through a few pages, you find a lot of references to the beginning of the end of the recession. Today we look at some data to see if we can indeed see the end. Most readers will be surprised to know that the number of people employed in the US went up (!) in April. Yet so did the unemployment rate. Is that green shoot just another dandelion weed in our economic garden?

Are the Green Shoots Really Dandelion Weeds?

When the employment numbers come out, my usual routine is to go the Bureau of Labor Statistics website and peruse the actual tables (www.bls.gov). I was rather surprised to see that the actual number of people employed in the US rose by 120,000. That has certainly not been the trend for a rather long time.

So, are things back on track? Is the recession just about over? Is that a green shoot? I don’t think so.

First, there are actually two surveys done by the BLS. One is the household survey, where they call up a fixed number of homes each month and ask about the employment situation in the household and then take that data and extrapolate it for the economy as a whole. So, while the number of employed rose, the number of unemployed rose a lot faster, by 563,000 to 13.7 million. In

addition, there are 2.1 million who are “marginally attached” to the workforce. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.

According to the survey, headline unemployment rose 0.4% to 8.9%, the highest level since 1983. But if you count those who are working part-time but want full-time work, as well as the “marginally attached,” the unemployment rate (called the U-6 rate) is an ugly 15.8%.

For whatever reason, the markets were happy that the headline number of the other BLS survey, the establishment survey of lost jobs, was “only” 539,000, down from a negatively revised 699,000
in March. At least, the thinking was, the numbers were not getting worse, though it is hard for me to be encouraged by half a million lost jobs. That may not be the worst of it, however, since 66,000 jobs were temporary workers hired for the 2010 census, and the BLS estimated that the birth-death ratio added 226,000 jobs as a result of new business creation. Really? This will mean that there will likely be a major revision downward at some future point. The number will likely be well over 600,000 in the final analysis.

Further, it is likely that we will see at least another 1.0-1.5 million lost jobs over the rest of the year,
taking unemployment very close to 10%. As an aside, the Treasury used an unemployment rate of 9.5% in their stress test of the banks, which suggests the test was not all that stressful. And, showing further weakness, there were 66,000 fewer temporary jobs. If there was really a nascent recovery, you would see a rise in temporary workers.

Average wages rose by a mere 3.2% on an annual basis, and by just 0.1% for the month, and the average work week was at an all-time record low of 33.2 hours. In nearly any inflation scenario, rising wages play an important part. This suggests that inflation is not in our near future.

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Category: Economy, Think Tank

Mortgage Duration Risk: The Banks Are No Longer the Problem

Mortgage Duration Risk: The Banks Are No Longer the Problem

“You think that’s air you’re breathing?”
Morpheus to Neo

-The Matrix

We are gratified to see that Treasury Secretary Geithner and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke take our suggestion of several weeks ago on CNBC not to allow the TARP banks to repay the government debt until they prove the ability to function in the debt markets without reliance upon a government guarantee.

Washington has indeed fixed the solvency problems of the large zombie banks — not with additional capital or stress tests, as many of us seem to think. Rather, the banks have been stabilized by turning them into GSEs via FDIC guarantees on their debt. Those banks which can end their dependence on federal guarantees will be the visible winners in the post stress test market, and valuations and spreads will reflect this divergence between zombies and viable private banks.

Seen from this perspective, Chrysler, General Motors (NYSE:GM) and the large banks are GSEs rather than private companies, parestatales as they know them in Mexico. To talk about a rally in the equity of large US financials seems truly ridiculous, at least to us, especially true when you look at how the public sector subsidies being applied to the banks have distorted their financial statements.

Maybe by the end of next year, when we know which banks can or cannot shed the need for government subsidies, then we can talk about investible equity in these GSEs. To that point, turning Bank of America (NYES:BAC), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) and Citigroup (NYSE:C) into GSEs was just the first battle, Vol. II of the Lord of the Rings, to use another cinematic metaphor. Next comes dealing with the dysfunction in the non-bank market for securitization and financing, the real battle to save the US economy from a truly dreadful year-end 2009 and beyond.

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Category: Bailouts, Credit, Think Tank

Talking Their Book

> The markets are now screaming at the Fed to do something to arrest inflation concern.  Fed governors must now internally debate hiking the fed funds rate…And if the economy and stock market have bottomed, a 50bp fed funds rate should be insignificant.  But many people don’t really believe; they’re just “talking their book.” Two…Read More

Category: Federal Reserve, Inflation, Think Tank

U6

The comprehensive unemployment rate which is referred to as U6 and includes part time workers that want full time jobs and discouraged workers that have stopped looking but will take a job if offered, rose to 15.8% from 15.6% and 9.2% in April 2008.

Category: MacroNotes

Payrolls

April Payrolls fell 539k, 61k better than expected BUT the 2 prior mo’s were revised down by 66k, so taken together, it was about in line with estimates. Giving the # a boost was the 72k person increase in Govt hiring, led by 66k within the Federal Govt. Construction fell by 110k, mfr’g by 149k,…Read More

Category: MacroNotes