Posts filed under “Think Tank”
The preliminary June U of Michigan confidence # was 69, .5 point below estimates but up a touch from May and its the highest since Sept. Interestingly, current economic conditions (measuring how people feel today as opposed to what they think about the future) saw a 6.8 point jump, rising to 74.5 and is just shy of the 75 reading in Sept ’08. The outlook, which rose in May to the highest since Oct ’07, fell 4 points. Coincident with the overall improvement however was the jump in one year inflation expectations to 3.1% from 2.8% and is now at the highest since Oct ’08. In the free spending days of the ’90s and ’00s, higher confidence typically correlated with higher spending. In today’s growing thrifty culture maybe we’ll see a rise in confidence correlating with higher savings and less debt as we should feel more confident with money in the bank and lower credit card balances and rely less on the value of our homes and stock portfolios. That’s a bigger picture view, but shorter term the continued rally in stocks and the stabilization in the banking sector after large capital raises have led to the modest improvement in overall confidence.
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> Verbal intervention via leak in time to help dealers loaded with US bonds – The WSJ: Fed to Keep Lid on Bond Buys; Big Boost in Purchases Is Unlikely; Divisions Emerge Over Handling Risk of Inflation We warned in missives this week that when bonds are tanking into an auction, dealers try to affect…Read More
Just as a kid needs some love from his parents after he or she gets into trouble and confirmation that they’ll still get their weekly allowance, Japan’s Finance Minister said “The US $’s position as the world’s reserve currency isn’t under threat…Our trust in US Treasuries is absolutely unshakable.” Hopefully the child grows up at…Read More
> Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein, speaking in Tel Aviv on Wednesday, said ‘chances are’ the US is not in a real recovery; the recession is likely to be long and protracted; and the recovery will be shallow. The Street quickly surmised that Goldie must be short the stock market. The Fed, via Jeff Lacker, engaged…Read More
REVISED: The Q1 flow of funds report from the Fed is out and the report card is in on the US consumer. Due to a rise in disposable income from Q4 (likely due to the large COLA adjustments and also tax refunds) and a drop in consumer credit (mortgage debt was flat), household debt (consumer…Read More
The Q1 flow of funds report from the Fed is out and the report card is in on the US consumer. Due to a rise in disposable income from Q4 (likely due to the sharp drop in gasoline prices and also tax refunds) and a drop in consumer credit (mortgage debt was flat), household debt…Read More
April Business Inventories fell 1.1%, about in line with expectations and March was revised down by .2% to a decline of 1.3%. It’s the 6th straight month of 1% or more drops and reflects the dramatic inventory correction that our economy has experienced. At the same time, it provides the backdrop for the bullish camp’s…Read More
Over the past few weeks we’ve seen a differentiation developing in the stock market with outperformance of those name’s that are exposed to growing inflation expectations and those co’s that have large exposure to overseas markets relative to those co’s that are US centric only, dependent on the US consumer and with little pricing power….Read More
Excerpts “… Ken Lewis’ claim that they were surprised by the rapid growth of the losses seems somewhat suspect. At a minimum, it calls into question the adequacy of the due diligence process BAC has been doing in preparation for the takeover.” –Dec. 19 email from Timothy Clark, senior advisor in the Fed’s division of…Read More
Good Evening: The capital markets absorbed a flurry of news today and came away with only some minor indigestion. Stocks and bonds were on the defensive before each market made comebacks of varying degrees, while the dollar and commodities were firm before giving up some of their gains. Aside from a surprising drop in crude…Read More