Posts filed under “Think Tank”

New Home Sales

May New Home Sales, a measure of contract signings of new homes, totaled 342k annualized, 18k less than expected and down a touch from 344k in April. Mortgage rates remained below 5% for most of the month so this data doesn’t reflect the recent rise but it does take into account the government’s $8,000 home purchase tax credit for first time buyers and the California $10,000 tax credit for buyers of new homes. Purchases in the West however rose by only 1000 as foreclosure sales remain stiff competition for builders. The same in the South where sales fell by 17k. The Northeast rose by 6k and the Midwest rose by 8k. Months supply fell to 10.2 from 10.4 to the lowest since July ’08 but still remains well above the 30 year average of 6 months. The absolute # of new homes for sale did fall to the lowest since ’01. The median price rose 4.2% m/o/m and is down 3.4% y/o/y and is off 15.6% from its July ’07 high. Net-net, new homes make up a small part of the market where existing homes with foreclosures are making up a bigger and bigger portion but the drop in months supply and rise in prices are the focus of homebuilder investors.

Category: MacroNotes


The FOMC began with talk on the economy that was very similar to the April one. “The pace of economic contraction is slowing.” It followed with the caveats of constrained household spending due to job losses, lower housing wealth and tight credit and also referenced businesses cutting back on fixed investment and staffing and they…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

King Report: Second Stimulus?

> Yesterday President Obama said a second stimulus package is not needed, for now. Do you think Ben Bernanke and the Fed will refute the president’s claim in its communiqué today? Not bloody likely! Obama’s ‘not yet’ on a second stimulus package is intended to assuage China and Japan’s concern over the US budget and…Read More

Category: Think Tank

Durable Goods

New orders for May Durable Goods unexpectedly rose both headline and ex transports. Headline rose 1.8% vs a forecasted drop of .9% while ex transports rose 1.1% vs an expected fall of .5%. The prior month was revised lower by a touch. Non defense capital goods ex aircraft, the pure cap ex component, rose a…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Consumer Confidence/Mortgage applications

The MBA said weekly mortgage applications rose 6.6% as refi’s rose 5.9% and purchases gained 7.3% as the average 30 year mortgage rate fell to 5.44%, down 13 bps from two weeks before. The gain in refi’s though comes on the heels of an almost 50% drop over the past month. The purchase component rose…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

What will the history books say?

When the history books are written on the great credit bubble and its crash, how will they depict the visual of the fate of the $14 trillion US economy and its 300mm citizens being largely influenced by about 20 men and women sitting around a large mahogany table in a building on Constitution Ave in…Read More

Category: MacroNotes

Mortgage Broker’s Anti-Appraisal Reform Lobbying Effort

Call to Action _June 4,2009

Category: Real Estate, Think Tank, Valuation

NAR Anti Appraisal Reform Lobbying Effort

TO: State Association Executive Officers State Association Presidents FROM: NAR Government Affairs DATE: 19 June 2009 RE: Fly-In Head’s Up Please note this notice is going to all state executive officers and state presidents. We will be sending Fly-In details on Monday June 22, 2009 to the states who have Members of Congress and/or United…Read More

Category: Legal, Real Estate, Regulation, Think Tank

NAR Urges 18 Month Moratorium on Appraisal Reform

Letter from Charles McMillan, 2009 President, National Association of REALTORS urging an 18 month moratorium on the Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC) to Andrew Cuomo, NY Attorney General and James B. Lockhart III, Federal Housing Finance Agency: HVCC Moratorium Lockheart

Category: Real Estate, Regulation, Think Tank

Home Valuation Code of Conduct

Home Valuation Code of Conduct ~~~ Source: Fannie Mae

Category: Credit, Legal, Real Estate, Think Tank