Posts filed under “Trading”

Correction or New Bear Market ?

Here we are, 10-plus months into the year, and we have nothing to show for it.

At least, that is the case if we measure our progress by the gains (or losses) of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The index is now unchanged for the year after last week’s losses. The previously one direction market has suddenly recalled what volatility looks like, having for the most part forgotten.

Yes, stocks go up AND down.

At the beginning of the fourth quarter, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up about 7 percent for the year; those gains have now been cut by more than half. The Russell 2000 small cap index was already almost 5 percent, and the past few weeks have added to the red. The Nasdaq 100 is still positive on the year, but the has given back some of its gains.

I can’t tell you what will happen in the coming weeks or months, nor can I tell you what to do, not knowing your time horizon, risk tolerance and client base. I can, however, bring to your attention some interesting data points you may not have been aware of:

Continues here

 

Category: Cycles, Investing, Quantitative, Trading

Is the Bull Market Turning Bear?

Yesterday’s sell off has the bulls worried. Major U.S. indexes fell about 1.5 percent. Ten of the past 12 trading sessions saw swings of 100 points or more in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The list of worries ranges from the strengthening dollar’s harm to U.S. earnings, the end of quantitative easing, Europe’s weakening economy…Read More

Category: Cycles, Investing, Trading

NDR: 1980s Gold Pattern Suggests $660/oz

Gold is one of those topics that always generates fierce pushback whenever I write about it. Yesterday’s column How Low Can Gold Go? was no different. A deluge of emails and over 150 comments soon followed. I may post some of the more informative, vociferous and misguided comments / emails from readers later today as…Read More

Category: Cycles, Gold & Precious Metals, Technical Analysis, Trading

Volatility

Volatility David R. Kotok October 5, 2014     An era is ending: for over half a decade, nearly worldwide, zero interest rates suppressed volatilities. That is over. The first sign of this evolution came over a year ago when the bond market experienced the “taper tantrum” as then Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke alluded to…Read More

Category: Think Tank, Trading

World’s Greatest Stock Picker®

> My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at The world’s greatest stock picker? Bet you sold Apple and Google a long time ago. (Thats the print headline; online it was Why the world’s greatest stock picker would’ve ditched Apple). This is the third (and likely final) installment of…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Investing, Trading

MiB: Jack Schwager

This week’s Masters in Business Radio show at 10:00 am and 6:00 pm on Bloomberg Radio 1130AM and Siriux XM 119 (it also repeats all weekend).

Our guest this week is Jack Schwager, best known as the author of the seminal and popular Market Wizards books, first published in 1988.

You can listen to live here or stream it at Soundcloud or download the 55 minute podcast here. (See below for the podcast after the live show)

All of the past Podcasts are here (and coming soon to Apple iTunes).

Next week, we speak with Larry Swedroe, Buckingham Asset Management’s Director of Research.

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Books by Jack Schwager:

Market Wizards books
Market Wizards: Interviews With Top Traders
The New Market Wizards
Hedge Fund Market Wizards
The Little Book of Market Wizards

Other books
• Market Sense and Nonsense: How the Markets Really Work
Getting Started in Technical Analysis
A Complete Guide to the Futures Markets: Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis, Trading, Spreads, and Options

 

Streaming audio after the jump

 
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Category: Podcast, Trading

Too Bullish or Too Bearish?

One of my favorite pastimes is dissecting accepted Wall Street wisdom to see if it contains any value for investors or traders. Often, upon examination, the widely held beliefs turn out to be closer to magical thinking than financial acumen. One of the more recent examples is the way some analysts use data on sentiment…Read More

Category: Markets, Sentiment, Trading

Get Ready for the Shanghai Composite Break Out

  China is on the verge of breaking out from its pattern of consolidation, at least according to the monthly chart book from the analytics team at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. If you look at the chart above you can see that the Shanghai Composite Index is in the midst of transitioning into an…Read More

Category: Markets, Technical Analysis, Trading

Best & Worst Trades of All TIme

Nice graphic showing the 10 greatest — and worst — trades of all time. The lure of these outsized billion dollar wins seems to affect the psychology of many investors and traders, looking for that one giant score.

 

click for full infographic
Jesse Livermore
Source: 888 Markets

 
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Category: Digital Media, Trading

Why Long-Term Investors Beat Short-Term Traders

No matter what, the long-term investor comes out ahead of the short-term trader Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, August 10, 2014   Last time, we looked at why traders are at an almost insurmountable disadvantage against investors due to short-term capital gains taxes. Many of you wrote in to note several factors that would have allowed…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Investing, Trading