Posts filed under “Uncategorized”
Not surprisingly, the more detailed Boehner proposal presented to the White House was rejected and the game goes on. Imagine what our Founding Fathers would think of this process after they created a document with specific enumerated powers.
I digress to monetary policy where the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates by 25 bps to 3% as expected. Their benchmark rate is back to the lows of April thru Sept ’09. The key difference between the RBA and other central banks though is their desire to keep REAL interest rates positive as they have for at least the last 20 years. In their release they said “Global growth is forecast to be a little below average for a time. Risks to the outlook are still seen to be on the downside…” Notwithstanding the cut, the Aussie$ is matching the highest level vs the US$ since mid Sept. The euro heavy Dollar index itself is at a 6 week low.
In the ‘other’ category, the Shanghai index rallied off the lowest level since Jan ’09 by .8% and euro zone PPI rose 2.6% y/o/y vs 2.7% in Sept and compares with the 2.5% that was expected. Data wise in the US, today is the quiet before the important jobs data over the next 3 days and the ISM services index.
Putting aside the November Presidential election which I think will single handedly determine the direction of the stock market in the last two months of the year, we all seem to be waiting for what central bankers in Europe and the US will do. In the US, every single economic data point triggers a QE…Read More
June Payrolls totaled 80k, 20k less than expected and well below the ADP whisper. The two prior months were revised down by a net 1k. The private sector added 84k jobs (13k from goods producing, 71k from services) vs expectations of a gain of 106k. The unemployment rate held steady at 8.2% as the 128k…Read More
With the ECB meeting today, the BoE tomorrow and the Bernanke testimony on the US economy Thurs as well, markets again look to central bankers like dogs to pieces of meat. Will the dog get the meat and will it taste as good? That this seemingly endless discussion of what central bankers will now do…Read More
On continued concerns with slowing growth, the Shanghai index fell to the lowest level since mid Feb and European stock markets are down across the board. The Spanish 10 yr bond yield is higher for a 10th straight day to 5.52%, an 11 week high. Also, 5 yr CDS is up for a 4th day…Read More
Succinct summation of week’s events: Positives 1)Oct payrolls surprise big to the upside 2)Fed lights another fire under asset prices but are we really wealthier as a result? 3)Emerging markets continue to rally as investors seek non $ assets 4)Oct auto sales rise to best since Sept ’08 ex clunkers 5)ISM services and mfr’g indices…Read More
Succinct summation of week’s events: Positives 1)Private sector job gains about line with expectations 2)Initial Claims fall below 450k 3)Aug Pending Home Sales better than expected 4)ISM services rise more than estimated but components mixed 5)Purchase apps at 5 mo high 6)For asset prices at least, BoJ will buy anything, Bernanke hints at more QE…Read More
Succinct summation of week’s events: Positives 1) For asset prices at least, Fed VC Dudley hints at more action, CRB RIND up 14 out of 15 days to record high 2) PIG debt rallies sharply as Ireland quantifies bank rescue’s and Portugal gives budget details 3) Less than expected maturing ECB funds rolled into new…Read More
Initial Jobless Claims were much better than expected at 451k vs the forecast of 470k and down from 478k last week (revised up by 6k). Labor Day weekend may have had an impact on the seasonal adjustment but we’ll have to see next week to what extent. Either way though, the market will take a…Read More
Succinct summation of week’s events Positives 1)Initial Jobless Claims 17k less than expected at 473k and down from 504k last week 2)ABC confidence at 6 week high, UoM confidence slightly weaker than expected but up a touch from July 3)Q2 GDP better than feared but still weak 4)Bernanke elaborates, doesn’t lower ’11 GDP forecast and…Read More