Posts filed under “Uncategorized”

Succinct summation of week’s events

Succinct summation of week’s events

Positives

1)Initial Jobless Claims 17k less than expected at 473k and down from 504k last week
2)ABC confidence at 6 week high, UoM confidence slightly weaker than expected but up a touch from July
3)Q2 GDP better than feared but still weak
4)Bernanke elaborates, doesn’t lower ’11 GDP forecast and stops for now at QE1.5
5)Refi’s rise to most since May ’09
6)Ireland has good bill auctions, albeit very short term maturities
7)German IFO highest since June ’07, consumer confidence highest since Oct ’09
8)UK retail index strong
9)Housing stocks and INTC shrug off bad news and AAII has bulls at lowest since Mar ’09.

Negatives

1)CDS and yields in PIIGS moving higher again
2)Italian consumer confidence lowest since Mar ’09
3)Existing and New home sales awful
4)Durable Goods weak with non defense cap goods ex aircraft down 8%
5)PC sales slowing.

Category: Uncategorized

Greece still an issue

With the cost of bank bailout fears flaring up again last week in Ireland combined with a weaker than expected drop in Q2 GDP in Greece, and general risk aversion seen in the rally in Treasuries and Bunds after the FOMC meeting and weak US economic data, Greek asset prices are again pointing to trouble….Read More

Category: MacroNotes, Uncategorized

Shanghai and Sensex break out

The stock markets of the 2 most economically influential countries in the emerging world, China and India, have modestly broken out. The Shanghai index closed higher by .8% to a 3 month high and the Indian Sensex index traded higher by 1.1%, closing at the highest since Feb ’08. Copper in response is at a…Read More

Category: Uncategorized

Succinct summation of the week’s events

Succinct summation of the week’s events: Positives: 1)UoM and ABC confidence bounce a touch off multi month lows 2)Chinese economic data mixed at best but reduces odds of more tightening and raises hopes for soft landing Negatives: 1)US retail sales, trade deficit, and jobless claims weaker than expected and Q2 GDP may be revised to…Read More

Category: Uncategorized

Succinct summation of week’s events

Succinct summation of week’s events: Positives 1)Shanghai index closes up on the week and near highest since May on goldilocks theme 2)JoC index of 18 industrial materials also at highest level since May 3)Good #’s from European banks, RBS, Lloyds, BCS, BNP and HSBC 4)Greece gets high 5 from IMF and EU 5)ISM mfr’g and…Read More

Category: Uncategorized

With noise in the claims data, average the weeks out

Initial Jobless Claims totaled 464k, 19k above expectations and up from a revised 427k last week. The distortion of the seasonal auto shutdowns that didn’t happen at GM combined with the July 4th holiday has made the initial claims portion of the data too cloudy to analyze week to week and we thus should average…Read More

Category: Uncategorized

Just when you thought the Fed couldn’t get more dovish

Just when one thought the FOMC couldn’t get more dovish, they get more dovish, specifically on inflation. They toned down the outlook by saying the “economic recovery is proceeding” vs “economic activity has continued to strengthen” in Apr. They referred to the improvement in the labor market as gradual. They took out “housing starts have…Read More

Category: MacroNotes, Uncategorized

Pending home sales strong but not for long

March Pending Home Sales, which reflect the desire to take advantage of the April 30th expiration of the home buying tax credit, rose 5.3%, about in line with expectations of a rise of 5%. Gains were seen most in the South followed by the West and Midwest. The Northeast saw a drop of 3.3%. The…Read More

Category: Uncategorized

ISM mfr’g is solid but has it been priced in?

The ISM manufacturing survey was about in line with expectations at a solid 60.4 vs the estimate of 60 and is up from 59.6 in March. It’s the first time above 60 since June ’04 but only measures the direction of change, not the degree. New Orders rose 4.2 pts to 65.7 but Backlogs fell…Read More

Category: Uncategorized

Income and Spending in line but Savings Rate drops again

Both March Income and Spending rose as expected, up .3% and .6% respectively. With the greater rise in spending, the Savings Rate fell to 2.7% from 3% and has now fallen to the lowest since Sept ’08. Because of a .1% rise in the PCE price deflator, real income was up .2% and real spending…Read More

Category: Uncategorized