Posts filed under “Uncategorized”

Short term relief for Greece but at large cost

Step 1, get bailout money, check. Step 2, wreck your economy in order to save it, that is what lies ahead for Greece but they have no choice. With the cheap cost of money that Greece will borrow money for the next 3 yrs, Greek market rates are falling both on the short end and longer end of the curve but European stocks and the euro are not getting any bounce as the bailout precedent now established is a dangerous one. It reminds me of the children’s book, If You Give a Mouse a Cookie, he’s going to ask for a glass of milk, etc… The austere measures that other countries will have to take too risks a slowdown in the euro region at the same time China tries to reign in their growth. Chinese reserve requirements will be raised by 25 bps to 17% and this comes after the prices paid component in a PMI index rose to near a 2 yr high. The euro zone is also China’s largest trading partner.

Category: Uncategorized

Builder sentiment up but what happens after Apr. 30th?

With just weeks away from the expiration of the home buying tax credit, the April NAHB homebuilder sentiment index was 3 pts better than expected at 19 and up 4 pts from March. It’s at the highest level since Sept. Most of the gain was led by the Present condition component which rose 5 pts….Read More

Category: MacroNotes, Uncategorized

Income/Spending about in line with expectations

Feb Personal Income was flat vs expectations of a gain of .1% but Jan was revised up by .2% of a pt to a gain of .3%. Because Spending rose .3%, in line with forecasts, the personal Savings Rate fell to 3.1% from 3.4% and to the lowest level since Oct ’08. While this can…Read More

Category: MacroNotes, Uncategorized

No weather influence this week/reflation catches a bid

Following a month of free pass data where the Feb economic data was seen as ‘weather related,’ this week brings us a batch of weather clean March news with the highlight being the ISM and Payroll figures. While supply and credit issues were last weeks bond factors, this week will be the economic data. US$…Read More

Category: MacroNotes, Uncategorized

in our new world, what multiple should be paid?

Without getting into a discussion on healthcare and its politics, one reality of our soon to be new system is the inevitable further rise in government spending that is headed to 25% of US GDP from its long term average of about 20%. In order to finance this, there will be a smaller private sector…Read More

Category: MacroNotes, Uncategorized

Weather impacted Feb Housing Starts totaled 575k annualized, 5k above estimates but down from 611k in Jan which was revised up by 20k. Permits totaled 612k, 11k above expectations but down from 622k in Jan. With both starts and permits, single family and multi family categories fell. Single family construction fell in the Northeast and…Read More

Category: MacroNotes, Uncategorized

One Day at a Time

One Day at a Time, no not the sitcom staring Valerie Bertinelli that many of us grew up watching but the new drama that is now the FOMC where the flip side of their extraordinary accommodation, that of exit, becomes the main focus where they will be literally analyzing the process one day at a…Read More

Category: MacroNotes, Uncategorized

Blaming the Bears

Here’s the latest act of idiocy: Blaming the media or the Bears for the credit collapse and market crash. This not only demonstrates a total lack of understanding as to the difference between causation and correlation, but it evinces an utter disregard for the way the economy and markets operate. A classic example of this…Read More

Category: Economy, Financial Press, Psychology, Uncategorized

Ted Spread Improves

Nice chart via my fishing buddy, John Silvia, who notes: In its statement, the Federal Open Market Committee suggested that recent policy actions should help over time to improve credit conditions. Financial markets have evidenced some very modest improvement in credit spreads, but the search for that new equilibrium between risk and reward remains in…Read More

Category: Uncategorized

Mortgage Bankers’ Assoc. – Weekly

David Singer writes: I was going through the Economic Calendar for tomorrow. I went to The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) website and began poking around the place. I found the most recent report. Then I went back to November 2004, and checked out that information… Two quick observations I find interesting: 2004 – % of…Read More

Category: BP Cafe, Uncategorized