Posts filed under “UnGuru”

Christie vs. Tesla?

How New Jersey Governor Chris Christie clamped down on one of America’s most innovative companies.

Category: Really, really bad calls, Regulation, UnGuru, Video

Get Lucky: 5 Years Ago Today

Five years ago today, I made the luckiest market call of my career. A few details and some context first, than an explanation as to why this was so lucky. In 2005, I knew something was amiss in the global markets. The various metrics we track showed that credit had become a full on bubble,…Read More

Category: Bad Math, Investing, Markets, UnGuru

Fed is Too Focused on Wealth Effect, Equity Markets

  “When will these guys ever learn that maybe, just maybe, these Fed policies aimed at targeting asset prices at levels above their intrinsic values is probably not in the best interests of the nation?” -Dave Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin, Sheff   Not long ago, I was listening to former Federal Reserve…Read More

Category: Federal Reserve, Philosophy, Really, really bad calls, UnGuru

Professional Forecasters and the June 2013 FOMC Meeting

Preparing for Takeoff? Professional Forecasters and the June 2013 FOMC Meeting Richard Crump, Stefano Eusepi, and Emanuel Moench     Following the June 18-19 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting different measures of short-term interest rates increased notably. In the chart below, we plot two such measures: the two-year Treasury yield and the one-year overnight…Read More

Category: Markets, UnGuru

Paul Farrell: Beware of Predictions, Optimism Bias

The following assortment of quotes comes from Paul Farrell   2007-2008 bank credit meltdown — the top nine happy-talking gurus False predictions made before the 2008 subprime credit meltdown: ‘Mad Money’ Jim Cramer: “Bye-bye bear market, say hello to the bull.” Ken Fisher: “This year will end in the plus column … so keep buying.”…Read More

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Really, really bad calls, UnGuru

Muppet Portfolios

One of the funny things about running an asset management shop is that you get to see how other firms assemble portfolios. They range from good to bad to terrible. If they were all that good, we probably are not seeing much of them, for those clients are happy to stay where they are. Hence,…Read More

Category: Investing, UnGuru

Why did God invent economists?

10 reasons why economics is an art, not a science Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, August 9, 2013       “Why did God invent economists?” “To make weathermen feel good about themselves.”   That’s a quip from David Rosenberg, former chief economist at Merrill Lynch who is now working at Gluskin Sheff, the wealth management…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, UnGuru

Word of the Day: SocialBot

  This morning, I get a tweeted at by a guy with over 100,000 twitter followers, but less than 10,000 Tweets. Which coincidentally leads me to today’s WOTD from From wordspy: socialbot n. An automated software program designed to mimic a real person on a social networking site. Also: social bot. Example Citations: Now come…Read More

Category: UnGuru, Web/Tech

Economics is an Art, not a Science

>   My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at what good economists are to investors. The print version had the full headline What this investor took away from summer camp with the economists while the online version was 10 reasons why economics is an art, not a science. It…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, UnGuru

Kelly Evans Slaps Morgan Stanley’s Adam Parker

Category: Analysts, UnGuru, Video