Posts filed under “UnGuru”
One of the more fascinating aspects of watching finance is the never-ending stream of explanations for the market’s action. Strategists, news media and economists all engage in a series of tortured rationales for what just happened. These tend to be after-the-fact reasons that are too smug, too pat and too late to be useful, let alone satisfying.
Forget predicting the future, these folks don’t seem to even understand what happened yesterday.
All too often, they seem to be saying nothing more than “I don’t like that!” but lack either the awareness or courage to acknowledge the subtext of what they are saying or writing about.
To protect the not-so-innocent, I won’t point to specific examples.
It would be helpful if there were annotations to the commentary –sort of like VH1’s pop up videos (I’m showing my age). The insight into the authors’ psyche actually is much more valuable than the commentary itself.
Consider, for example, the countless analyses during the past six years about why the market is overvalued, or why it’s a tech bubble or why we’re about to experience (choose one) a 1929/1987/2000/2008-like crash. It would have been a huge time saver if a popup explained:
“I missed the bottom and have been unable to find a good way to get into equities!”
It would be helpful if every time there is a complex merger or acquisition, analysts would simply admit that the accounting and tax benefits are somewhat beyond their expertise. “Maybe the deal is a money saver, maybe it isn’t, but in the 27 minutes since it was announced, I simply don’t know.” Of course, then they wouldn’t have a self-promoting reason to discuss it on television.
Sometimes you have to diary these things for a few years and revisit them: Markets Showing ‘Extreme Similarities’ With 1929 Crash: Pro CNBC.com, Tuesday, 19 Mar 2013 | 8:53 AM ET “Investors should remain on the sidelines and wait for a market correction as a 4-year rebound comes to an end, Sandy Jadeja, chief market…Read More
Of all the maddening things about this month’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, perhaps the single most annoying is the hoopla surrounding the so-called dot plot. It even has its own Twitter hashtag: #Dotplot. The dot plot is a chart that shows the expectations of each FOMC member — absent their names — for where they believe the…Read More
There is a group of folks who believe that inflation is much higher than the numbers in the official reports. Paul Krugman calls them “inflation truthers.” In the 2000s, I might have been considered part of that crowd. I recognized that inflation data wasn’t being reported accurately, and said as much. I coined the phrase…Read More
Yesterday morning, we learned of Rupert Murdoch’s bid for Time Warner for as much as $85 dollar a share, or more than $75 billion. Soon after, the annotated chart below showing the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index began circulating on trading desks and websites, suggesting Murdoch’s offer signaled a market top. Source: Financial Insyghts LLC…Read More
This morning, I want to direct your attention to a Bloomberg News article titled “Individuals Pile Into Stocks as Pros Say Bull Is Spent..” It is a worthwhile read, but a bit of context is required. The article notes that Main Street and Wall Street are allocating money in diametrically opposed ways: “Individual investors are…Read More
The Worst Investing Ideas I’ve Heard This Year (so far) Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, July 5, 2014 As the second quarter comes to an end, my top 10 list of dumb investment ideas is filling up. All of these would be fairly foolish in any year. (Feel free to explain to me why…Read More