Posts filed under “UnGuru”

Dick Cheney Would Make A Terrible Trader

I have spilled a great deal of pixels and time in these pages discussing the importance of not letting your biases get the best of you as an investor. (See this, this, this, this, this, this, this, this, and this). Further, when you are wrong, you must do more than merely acknowledge it: Embrace the error, understand it and learn from it. Traders who don’t learn these lessons very quickly become ex-traders.

If only the same were true for the pundits and politicians who refuse to acknowledge their mistakes. Instead, they double down on the same bad philosophy and belief system that led to the error in the first place.

The latest example of this is former Vice President Dick Cheney. In a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed — one that isn’t even worthy of a link — he blames the entire Iraq fiasco on the current president, stating “Rarely has a U.S. president been so wrong about so much at the expense of so many.”

I did a double-take when I read that: I wasn’t sure if he was discussing the current president or the man Cheney ostensibly worked for, George W. Bush. Regardless of what you think about the current sitting president — he has been an enormous disappoint for many, and his poll numbers reflect that — invading Iraq was a choice made by the Bush administration. And the only person more wrong about Iraq than Bush was the invasion’s chief advocate and architect, Cheney himself.  Continues here

Category: Really, really bad calls, Trading, UnGuru, War/Defense

Why Are Treasury Yields Falling?

A reader writes in with this classic parable: The long list of reasons by pundits explaining the drop in Treasury yields reminded me of an old Wall Street joke: Over dinner following a hectic day in the market, the wife of this well-known pundit / stock-picker asks, “Darling, what’s wrong with the stock market?” His…Read More

Category: Humor, UnGuru

How to Make Better Predictions

    “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”  -Yogi Berra, or Neil Bohr   Last week, I was in San Francisco speaking to 700 financial planners from northern California. The areas that seemed to generate the most feedback and questions were on expert commentary and on risk. People love forecasts. They shouldn’t…Read More

Category: Investing, UnGuru

Carl Sagan’s Bullshit Detection Kit

As per our earlier discussion, here is Carl Sagan. He argues having a finely honed bullshit detector isn’t merely a tool of science — rather, it contains invaluable tools of healthy skepticism that apply just as elegantly, and just as necessarily, to everyday life. By adopting the kit, we can all shield ourselves against clueless…Read More

Category: Science, UnGuru

Why Does the Newsletter Business Exist?

Over the past few decades, I have watched the financial industry change. Some parts have evolved quite slowly, while others shift rapidly. But I am always amazed at how some business models manage to hang on despite overwhelming proof of their lack of purpose or value added. Some parts of the investment world exist simply…Read More

Category: Investing, UnGuru

Beware of Hedge Fund Managers Bearing Stock Tips

This week was the 19th annual Ira Sohn conference. It is an opportunity to raise money for a good cause (pediatric cancer research and treatment), and hobnob with rock star hedge-fund managers. It has become a must-attend event. Just remember one important thing: Ignore the stock tips. It is true that the picks and pans…Read More

Category: Hedge Funds, Trading, UnGuru

Piketty vs John Stuart Mill’s Marketplace of Ideas

Source: Amazon Any reader of this site has likely heard about the book currently setting the world of economics aflame. “Capital in the Twenty-First Century” was written by a French economist named Thomas Piketty. It is on the New York Times best-seller list and is currently sold out, with its publisher scrambling to print more…Read More

Category: Books, Philosophy, Really, really bad calls, UnGuru

The Biases of Your Favorite Market Pundits . . .

Ever wonder what motivates various pundits, strategists and fund managers to spout off about whatever it is they are yammering on about? Step back and examine all of the various words spilled on markets. Scratch a little beneath the surface, and you quickly realize that not all participants are in a relentless search for the…Read More

Category: Financial Press, Hedge Funds, Investing, UnGuru

More War Lies Sold By the Same Lying Liars

Painting by Anthony Freda: www.AnthonyFreda.com Peddler of Iraq War Lies Now Pushes Lies On Ukraine to Drum Up Confrontation with Russia Intelligence regarding Syria is arguably being manipulated even more blatantly than intelligence on Saddam and Iraq. Media coverage of Syria and Ukraine is as bad as it was of the Iraq war … or…Read More

Category: Think Tank, UnGuru, War/Defense

Christie vs. Tesla?

How New Jersey Governor Chris Christie clamped down on one of America’s most innovative companies.

Category: Really, really bad calls, Regulation, UnGuru, Video