Posts filed under “UnGuru”

Why Are Treasury Yields Falling?

A reader writes in with this classic parable:

The long list of reasons by pundits explaining the drop in Treasury yields reminded me of an old Wall Street joke:

Over dinner following a hectic day in the market, the wife of this well-known pundit / stock-picker asks, “Darling, what’s wrong with the stock market?

His reply: “Sweetheart, it has to do with China sinking a Vietnamese fishing boat, the volcanic eruption in Indonesia, the lasts Egyptian election…

Before he had a chance to go any further, she slams her hand on the table and says, “Darling, if you don’t know what’s wrong with the stock market, why don’t you say so!

If anyone has a better answer, I am all ears . . .

Category: Humor, UnGuru

How to Make Better Predictions

    “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”  -Yogi Berra, or Neil Bohr   Last week, I was in San Francisco speaking to 700 financial planners from northern California. The areas that seemed to generate the most feedback and questions were on expert commentary and on risk. People love forecasts. They shouldn’t…Read More

Category: Investing, UnGuru

Carl Sagan’s Bullshit Detection Kit

As per our earlier discussion, here is Carl Sagan. He argues having a finely honed bullshit detector isn’t merely a tool of science — rather, it contains invaluable tools of healthy skepticism that apply just as elegantly, and just as necessarily, to everyday life. By adopting the kit, we can all shield ourselves against clueless…Read More

Category: Science, UnGuru

Why Does the Newsletter Business Exist?

Over the past few decades, I have watched the financial industry change. Some parts have evolved quite slowly, while others shift rapidly. But I am always amazed at how some business models manage to hang on despite overwhelming proof of their lack of purpose or value added. Some parts of the investment world exist simply…Read More

Category: Investing, UnGuru

Beware of Hedge Fund Managers Bearing Stock Tips

This week was the 19th annual Ira Sohn conference. It is an opportunity to raise money for a good cause (pediatric cancer research and treatment), and hobnob with rock star hedge-fund managers. It has become a must-attend event. Just remember one important thing: Ignore the stock tips. It is true that the picks and pans…Read More

Category: Hedge Funds, Trading, UnGuru

Piketty vs John Stuart Mill’s Marketplace of Ideas

Source: Amazon Any reader of this site has likely heard about the book currently setting the world of economics aflame. “Capital in the Twenty-First Century” was written by a French economist named Thomas Piketty. It is on the New York Times best-seller list and is currently sold out, with its publisher scrambling to print more…Read More

Category: Books, Philosophy, Really, really bad calls, UnGuru

The Biases of Your Favorite Market Pundits . . .

Ever wonder what motivates various pundits, strategists and fund managers to spout off about whatever it is they are yammering on about? Step back and examine all of the various words spilled on markets. Scratch a little beneath the surface, and you quickly realize that not all participants are in a relentless search for the…Read More

Category: Financial Press, Hedge Funds, Investing, UnGuru

More War Lies Sold By the Same Lying Liars

Painting by Anthony Freda: www.AnthonyFreda.com Peddler of Iraq War Lies Now Pushes Lies On Ukraine to Drum Up Confrontation with Russia Intelligence regarding Syria is arguably being manipulated even more blatantly than intelligence on Saddam and Iraq. Media coverage of Syria and Ukraine is as bad as it was of the Iraq war … or…Read More

Category: Think Tank, UnGuru, War/Defense

Christie vs. Tesla?

How New Jersey Governor Chris Christie clamped down on one of America’s most innovative companies.

Category: Really, really bad calls, Regulation, UnGuru, Video

Get Lucky: 5 Years Ago Today

Five years ago today, I made the luckiest market call of my career. A few details and some context first, than an explanation as to why this was so lucky. In 2005, I knew something was amiss in the global markets. The various metrics we track showed that credit had become a full on bubble,…Read More

Category: Bad Math, Investing, Markets, UnGuru