THE CINDERS OF AYN RAND

Email this post Print this post
By Barry Ritholtz - December 10th, 2011, 7:08AM

A musical econoparody of the Smith/Bernard song “Winter Wonderland,” about the legacy of Alan Greenspan and today’s GOP.

Amazingly, it is from Dec 2008


Hat tip naked capitalism

Parody Lyrics: MARCY SHAFFER
Music Director: GREG HILFMAN
Lead vocal: JANIS LIEBHART
Background vocals: SCOTTIE HASKELL, JANIS LIEBHART, GARY STOCKDALE

For the text of the parody lyrics: http://versusplus.com/cinders.html

For the complete collection of VERSUS political musical parodies, visit us at http://versusplus.com.

Happy Anniversary, Irrational Exuberance

Email this post Print this post
By Barry Ritholtz - December 5th, 2011, 3:15PM

Today is the 15th anniversary of the infamous “irrational exuberance” speech by former Fed Chief Alan Greenspan (see below).

Here is the key excerpt from the speech (note the unintentionally ironic title):

The Challenge of Central Banking in a Democratic Society
Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan
At the Annual Dinner and Francis Boyer Lecture of The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington, D.C.
December 5, 1996

Clearly, sustained low inflation implies less uncertainty about the future, and lower risk premiums imply higher prices of stocks and other earning assets. We can see that in the inverse relationship exhibited by price/earnings ratios and the rate of inflation in the past. But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade? And how do we factor that assessment into monetary policy? We as central bankers need not be concerned if a collapsing financial asset bubble does not threaten to impair the real economy, its production, jobs, and price stability. Indeed, the sharp stock market break of 1987 had few negative consequences for the economy. But we should not underestimate or become complacent about the complexity of the interactions of asset markets and the economy. Thus, evaluating shifts in balance sheets generally, and in asset prices particularly, must be an integral part of the development of monetary policy.

The public examination of Federal Reserve actions extends well beyond our stewardship of monetary policy. Our overall management of the Federal Reserve System should, and does, come under considerable scrutiny by the Congress. Since we expend unappropriated taxpayer funds, we have an especial obligation to be prudent and efficient with the use of those funds . . .

Note that SPX rallied for another three years and doubled from that point.

So much for the Maestro’s acumen . . .

Dissecting the big lie about the economic crisis

Email this post Print this post
By Barry Ritholtz - November 20th, 2011, 10:00AM

>

My Sunday Business Washington Post column is out. This morning, we look at part II of the Big Lie (Part I examined the actual factors that led to the crisis) in this part, we look at the data and factors that disprove the elements of the Big Lie.

The print version had the full headline Dissecting the big lie about the economic crisis; the online version is Examining the big lie: How the facts of the economic crisis stack up).

Here’s an excerpt from the column:

“I want to move beyond what I call “the squishy narrative” — an imprecise, sloppy way to think about the world — toward a more rigorous form of analysis. Unlike other disciplines, economics looks at actual consequences in terms of real dollars. So let’s follow the money and see what the data reveal about the causes of the collapse . . .

Consider the causes cited by those who’ve taken up the big lie. Consider New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s statement that it was Congress that forced banks to make ill-advised loans to people who could not afford them and defaulted in large numbers. He and others claim that caused the crisis. Others have suggested these were to blame: the home mortgage interest deduction, the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977, the 1994 Housing and Urban Development memo, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) and homeownership targets set by both the Clinton and Bush administrations.”

No graphics this week — so I created a run of charts to illustrate the facts in the main article.
>
click for ginormous version of print edition


>

Source:
Examining the big lie: How the facts of the economic crisis stack up
Barry Ritholtz
Washington Post, November 20, 2011
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/examining-the-big-lie-how-the-facts-of-the-economic-crisis-stack-up/2011/11/16/gIQA7G23cN_story.html

Washington Post, Sunday November 20, 2011 (PDF)

The Big Lie (Previews & Edits)

Email this post Print this post
By Barry Ritholtz - November 3rd, 2011, 8:00PM

Whenever I go off on a rant when writing some critical polemic screed, I try not to edit myself. Just get it all out in print, and we can worry about editing down for style and clarity later. That works especially well if you, as a writer, have a some idea of where you want to go and what you want to say with a piece.

It also helps if you work with a top notch editor, and I have been fortunate to work with several: Aaron Task, my editor on Bailout Nation as well as at TheStreet.com; Thom Donlan at Barron’s; and my  editor at the Washington Post, Kelly Johnson.

Its freeing to blather out 2,000 words and let the professionals focus and tighten it up. But every now and again, something interesting ends up on the cutting room floor. In Bailout Nation, a delightfully vicious comment about Greenspan’s relationship with Ayn Rand was edited out (It was so obnoxiously clever I may have to publish it posthumously).

My column for this Sunday’s Washington Post, What Caused the Financial Crisis? The Big Lie Goes Viral, looks at the false crisis narratives pushed by people for various reasons. Its not unusual to see this from the usual suspects, but it is a big surprise when it comes out of NYC’s pragmatic technocrat Mayor Mike Bloomberg.

KJ slashed my blather in half, cutting out the flabby digressions and distractions. The finished piece just hums.

But as I alluded to earlier, some of the more interesting parts got lost in the process. What follows are some of the trimmings from two earlier versions of The Big Lie, none of which made it to the final piece.

First up: The original draft was all over the place, kinda randomly calling out people; the early version had the following text:

Peter Wallison, FCIC member: Before joining the financial commission, Wallison was the Co-Director of co-director of the American Enterprise Institute Financial Deregulation Project. Since the crisis occurred, the AEI changed the project’s name to the more benign “program on financial policy studies.” They also scrubbed Wallison’s bio from any mention of the Financial Deregulation Project.

Joe Kernan, CNBC Anchor: Viewers who tune in each morning expecting to get a quick update on the news instead see Squawkbox Anchor and former Merrill Lynch Broker Kernan shilling for the Street. He never seems to pass up an opportunity to exonerate banks and blame the wrong players for the financial collapse. Whether it was the Community Reinvestment Act or Fannie & Freddie, apparently anyone but Wall Street was at fault. Perhaps the tiresome repetition of the same discredited memes helps to explain the CNBC’s softening ratings.

Investor’s Business Daily: IBD published not an opinion piece, but an article laying fault for the entire crisis on a 1994 HUD statement against bank redlining. Of course, if that was the cause of the crisis, then the bank redlined areas of the country – inner cities like Harlem and the worst parts of Philly and Chicago and Detroit and Washington DC was were the lending boom and bust would have taken place. But we know it was the tony suburbs of California and Arizona, as well as the Condos in Florida and the Exurbs in Nevada that boomed the most.

Mayor Mike Bloomberg: Embarrassed himself this week, blindly repeating the discredited talking points. He exonerated Wall Street, stating “It was not the banks that created the mortgage crisis. It was, plain and simple, Congress who forced everybody to go and give mortgages to people who were on the cusp.” What made Bloomberg’s erroneous comments so stunning is that he built his Bloomberg Data Service business on the notion that data is what ultimately matters most to investors. He ignored his own principles to repeat statements he knew (or should have known) were false.

I thought about the pieces to this as KJ and I edited it down to a more reasonable size. “Man bites Dog” is really the story here, mostly because Mayor Bloomberg is not just another wingnut. So the mid version of the column focused more on Bloomberg, and downgraded the usual Financial Crisis Denialists to a mere sentence apiece.

Cleaned up a bit, and notably better than the series above, it looked like this:

Mayor Mike Bloomberg: Embarrassed himself this week, blindly repeating the discredited talking points. He exonerated Wall Street, stating “It was not the banks that created the mortgage crisis. It was, plain and simple, Congress who forced everybody to go and give mortgages to people who were on the cusp.” What made Bloomberg’s erroneous comments so stunning is that he built his Bloomberg Data Service business on the notion that data is what ultimately matters most to investors. He ignored his own principles to repeat statements he knew (or should have known) were false.

Its not just Mayor Bloomberg – you can see the Big Lie in action everywhere. Perhaps the Mayor saw a recent The Investor’s Business Daily article that blamed the crisis on a 1994 Housing and Urban Development memo (Smoking-Gun Document Ties Policy To Housing Crisis, by PAUL SPERRY 10/31/2011). Maybe he read FCIC member Peter Wallison’s dissent; of course, Wallison was co-director of the American Enterprise Institute “Financial Deregulation Project” so its no surprise he dissented from the report laying blame on radical deregulation of the finance sector. Perhaps the Mayor watches CNBC’s morning program, Squawkbox. Viewers are treated to a regular repetition of the Big Lie, as anchor Joe Kernan exonerates banks and blames Congress for the crisis on a near daily basis.

The final version is even more compact. It dispatched all of the goofballs — Wallison, Kernan, IBD are totally dropped from the finished product. The focus is partly on why Bloomberg went off the reservation, but mostly on what actually caused the finacial crisis.

I’ll tweet it as soon as soon as its out online @ritholtz

QOTD: Alan Greenspan on Moral Hazard

Email this post Print this post
By Barry Ritholtz - September 9th, 2011, 10:00AM

The ever ironic former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan on whether government intervention can create moral hazard:

“There were unintended consequences to almost every action I was involved in” as Fed chairman, said Mr. Greenspan, who himself cut interest rates to help stave off a bond-market crisis in 1998, and later was accused of helping inflate the stock bubble of the late 1990s. “If we anticipated the unintended consequences that were going to happen we might have changed the policy,” he said, but he added that it is impossible to forecast all the consequences of government action.

-WSJ August 29th, 2011

Please make it stop . . .

Wall Street Strategists Are (Surprise!) Bullish

Email this post Print this post
By Barry Ritholtz - September 3rd, 2011, 10:05AM

File this one under Duh!

The cover story in Barron’s looks at some of the usual denizen’s of the Street’s biggest shops. They are, as is their wont, bullish and long and not particularly concerned about a recession (Its priced in!) or another leg down in Housing (its cheap!) or the market’s technical signals (we’re finding a bottom!) or deleveraging (sorry, the term is not familiar).

Most see the “economic data stabilizing and then improve instead of worsening“. If they are wrong, they perceive the downside risk to (WTF?) all of SPX 1,000. The Bear in the group is Douglas Cliggott, Credit Suisse’s U.S. equity strategist. He lowered his year-end S&P target to 1100 –less than 7% from Friday’s close (it was at 1275). Strategas’s Jason Trennert correctly notes the major indexes’ moving averages have broken down. Even he sees only a 35% probability of a recession next year, and a flat finish (SPX 1165) at year end from here.

My issue is not whether these gentlemen are right — perhaps they are — or wrong — which they frequently can be.

Rather, its that their (or their client’s) enormous assets under management (AUM). It prevents them from being anything other than Long & Strong & often Wrong (the club to which they Belong). They may have a methodology, but it doesn’t really allow much other than Buy & Hold, which is all you can do with $100s of billions or even trillions in AUM. Its a rare strategist who can manage risk or protect capital; Forget beating the market — they ARE the market.

Hence, a bullish bias is built into their views. That serves them well during secular bull markets (i.e., 1982-2000) but its punishing during secular bear markets (1966-82; 2000-present).

>

Click for forecasts from Wall Street Strategists


Source: Barron’s

>

Source:
Which Way Up?
VITO J. RACANELLI
Barron’s September 3, 2011
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052702303544204576542623047983688.html

Investors: Think For Yourselves

Email this post Print this post
By Barry Ritholtz - August 18th, 2011, 10:35PM

What is it about these four Bloomberg headlines that are imparting some sort of a lesson?

May 23, 2011: Biggs Buying as S&P 500 Profit Forecasts Rise Most in a Year

May 24, 2011Biggs Says Stock Bears Wrong Even as Economy Slows

Aug 3, 2011: Birinyi, Biggs Advise Holding Stocks After S&P 500’s Decline

Aug 18, 2011: Biggs Says S&P May Be Bottoming, Priced for 15% Profit Drop

Which of these buy calls should you follow? Might some of these calls be suffering from bias? And if you are always telling people to buy-buy-buy, can anyone really follow your advice?

47 queries. 0.639 seconds.