Posts filed under “Valuation”
One of the elements of modern punditry that continually surprises me is the insistence that stocks are grossly overvalued.
As I have written repeatedly, stocks are more or less fully valued. However, since we don’t know what next year’s earnings are going to be, stocks can get cheap or expensive pretty quickly. It depends on whether earnings slow or accelerate. Although we don’t know what is going to happen, investors must make a probability assessment as to the possibilities. (More on this later).
It is true that stock prices are somewhat elevated relative to next year’s earnings estimates, which are typically too high. We also know is this: Prices are nowhere near the highs of the huge stock-market bubble of the late 1990s. As of this week 15 years ago, the price-earnings ratio of the Standard & Poor’s 500 index peaked at an all-time high of 35.97.
Contrast that with today.
How to know whether stocks are cheap or pricey Barry Ritholtz Washington PostTerms March 23, 2014 Last week, the Fed shared some widely expected news: It will taper more — keeping up a policy of slowly reducing its bond-buying program with the goal to wind it down by year’s end. It has telegraphed…Read More
> My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at whether stocks are cheap or expensive. The print version had the full headline Are Stocks Cheap or Not? How to Tell. The conclusion is surprisngly middle of the road. Here’s an excerpt from the column: “To know whether stocks…Read More
My favorite chart on the website this week (so far) comes from Matthew Klein’s column: Is Yahoo’s Business Worth Less Than Nothing? And it’s filled with informative details. Yahoo! Inc.’s total value is represented by the first bar. If you subtract the value of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Yahoo! Japan Corp. you are…Read More
Source: The Chart Store Today I am going to make a somewhat nuanced argument about the dangers of indicators and metrics for valuing stocks. Let’s use arguably the greatest investor of all time, Warren Buffett, and what he describes as, “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.”…Read More
He’s creatively bankrupt. Recent studies show that few post and no one clicks through on likes, what’s a poor boy to do? Buy something with all that Wall Street money to deflect criticism as those prognosticating and investing miss the point. Steve Jobs is a hero not because he started the computer revolution, but because…Read More
Lately, there has been a spate of research, analysis and commentary telling us that earnings are at a cyclical high and must revert. Stock valuations, therefore, are elevated and earnings will soon begin to fall, bringing stocks down with them. This is neither a credible analysis nor a method of valuing equities. Rather, it is…Read More
Josh has an excellent post up, titled Don’t Hate the Asset, Hate the Price, that makes several important points. I want to reiterate and expand on them here. Some of these are lynchpins of an investing philosophy I have been espousing for many years. Its a broad discussion on price and value, and I think…Read More