Posts filed under “Valuation”

Inflation vs. P/E Model (1965 to Present)

 
Relative to this morning’s column, consider this discussion about inflation and valuation:
From Savita Subramanian:

Inflation: The level of inflation also matters, and historically has had a strong relationship with PE multiples. Chart 2 below indicates that the relationship may not be linear, but many have simplified this relationship to the “Rule of 21” which suggests that the sum of the PE multiple and CPI inflation should equal 21. Given that the latest inflation data are slightly negative (-0.2%) and the trailing PE ratio of 17.6x, the Rule suggests valuations should jump 3-4 points, or that inflation should be 3-4% (or some meeting in the middle). And the chart below indicates that P/E multiples could be far higher than they are today without breaching the historical relationship between multiples and inflation.

 

Source:
Episode I: High valuations
Savita Subramanian, Equity & Quant Strategist
MLPF&S
Equity and Quant Strategy | United States 26 May 2015

Category: Inflation, Investing, Valuation

Embedded Predictions and the Valuation Debate

    Traders returning to their desks after the long holiday weekend will be greeted by the continuing Greek saga, a guessing game about when the Federal Reserve will raise rates and a megamerger in the cable industry. But the debate I am much more interested in is the one taking place about U.S. stock valuations. It is more…Read More

Category: Investing, Valuation

Stovall: Inflation/Rate Adjusted Stocks Don’t Look Expensive

  “When an inflation overlay is included, P/Es don’t look as expensive” -Sam Stovall   The U.S. equity strategist at S&P Capital IQ suggests that one must include low yields and low inflation rates when determining if stocks are expensive. The chart above shows average price-earnings ratios for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since…Read More

Category: Inflation, Valuation

Cullen Roche vs Andrew Smithers on Tobin’s Q

I love this debate between the idea of Tobin’s Q-Ratio as th be all for valuation analysis. It is embodied between Smithers & Co. quoted in this scary BBRG article and Pragmatic Capitalism’s Cullen Roche. Here is PragCap: “Better yet, look at the number of times this ratio has been cited during the most recent bull market…Read More

Category: Bad Math, Data Analysis, Investing, Valuation

Bargains Reside Beyond U.S. Borders

Source: BlackRock

Category: Markets, Valuation

Vanguard CEO: “We want to drive costs even lower”

“We are not done on the cost side . . . We think we need to keep raising the bar on that.” So says Bill McNabb, CEO and Chairman of the Vanguard Group. The firm, managing over $3.1 trillion dollars in client monies, has long been known for its obsessive focus on keeping costs low….Read More

Category: Corporate Management, Investing, Podcast, Valuation

Does Record Picasso Sale Signal a Bubble?

The headlines screamed across the Web yesterday: Picasso’s Women of Algiers smashes auction record. Two Artworks Top $100 Million Each at Christie’s Sale. Picasso Painting Sells for $179.4 Million; Sets Auction Record. The record for paintings was joined by a record for a sculpture, when Alberto Giacometti’s “Pointing Man” was purchased by an anonymous bidder for $141.3 million….Read More

Category: Bubbles, Sentiment, Valuation

Stocks, Profits, GDP

Stocks, Profits, GDP David R. Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer Cumberland Advisors May 11, 2015     So here we are. The GDP of the United States is approaching $18 trillion (17.8 is the most recent estimate, and that is before many forthcoming revisions). That estimate reflects the known effects from the strengthening dollar,…Read More

Category: Think Tank, Valuation

Nasdaq Bubble Stole From Future Returns

Yesterday, we discussed why the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has gone sideways for the past few months. The prime suspects were rich valuations, earnings crimped by falling energy prices and higher returns to be had overseas. Today, I want to look at the Nasdaq Composite Index. It closed at 5,056.06 yesterday, surpassing its March 2000 dot-com…Read More

Category: Markets, Psychology, Sentiment, Valuation, Web/Tech

Is the Nasdaq in another bubble? (An Interactive Journey)

Click for crazy cool an interactive roller coaster. Source: WSJ

Category: Cycles, Digital Media, Markets, Valuation