Posts filed under “Valuation”
Following last week’s discussion on narratives, I want to direct your attention to the charts above.
One shows the quarterly recovery in earnings and prices since the March 2009 lows. The second via Dan Greenhaus of BTIG shows the same data going back to 1990, using trailing 12 month earnings. (I used Dan’s spreadsheet to make the first chart).
Dan notes that if the S&P were to end Q3 at 1700, the index would be up 113% from its closing lows from March 2009.
Over the same time frame, the index has seen earnings rise 140%. Meaning, the increase in earnings seen since the bottom has outpaced the appreciation in the index.
Note S&P500 is expected to earn $103 on a trailing twelve month basis, up from $40 during the March 2009 level. Trailing 4 quarter earnings from March 09E: Q1 09 = $10.11, Q4 08 = -$0.09, Q3 08 = $15.96 and Q208 = $17.02.
The Fed’s liquidity certainly had an impact — but so too have earnings snapping back. Unless you believe earnings are irrelevant, that is a hell of a strong argument to make to explain the huge ramp up from the lows.
Click to enlarge Source: Bloomberg Interesting chart form Dave Wilson showing how elusive the U.S. housing market’s rebound has been for the Homebuilders. Existing single-family homes sold at about the same pace in May as they did in January 2000, according to data compiled by the National Association of Realtors. New home sales…Read More
Click to enlarge I have to admit: I have never seen this ratio before. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to profits at all U.S. companies. Its a price to earnings ratio of the main US stock market against ALL US earnings. According to this little used, odd ratio, Stocks are much cheaper after…Read More
Several comments in yesterday morning’s post sent me back to GMO’s archive to pull some of Ben Inker’s work. You should read yesterday morn’s commentary (here), than come back and read Inker. In particular, his piece Explaining Equity Returns. The five takeaways are as follows: 1) GDP growth and stock market returns do not have…Read More
“If you’re bullish and wrong, you usually have plenty of company. But if you’re bearish and wrong, it’s almost unforgivable.” -Bob Kargenian, TABR Capital Management, Barron’s DECEMBER 15, 2012 The above quote from Barron’s has been on my mind for a while. I thought of it again as the markets have made…Read More
Last week, I posted the above chart from the NY Fed’s Liberty Street Economics. This morning on Squawk Box, David Tepper of Appaloosa discussed it — and his comments reversed the futures from negative to positive. Here is a brief explanation of what this chart — a compilation of 29 valuation models — means:…Read More
Are Stocks Cheap? A Review of the Evidence
Fernando Duarte and Carlo Rosa
NY Fed, May 08, 2013
We surveyed banks, we combed the academic literature, we asked economists at central banks. It turns out that most of their models predict that we will enjoy historically high excess returns for the S&P 500 for the next five years. But how do they reach this conclusion? Why is it that the equity premium is so high? And more importantly: Can we trust their models?
The equity risk premium is the expected future return of stocks minus the risk-free rate over some investment horizon. Because we don’t directly observe market expectations of future returns, we need a way to figure them out indirectly. That’s where the models come in. In this post, we analyze twenty-nine of the most popular and widely used models to compute the equity risk premium over the last fifty years. They include surveys, dividend-discount models, cross-sectional regressions, and time-series regressions, which together use more than thirty different variables as predictors, ranging from price-dividend ratios to inflation. Our calculations rely on real-time information to avoid any look-ahead bias. So, to compute the equity risk premium in, say, January 1970, we only use data that was available in December 1969.
Let’s now take a look at the facts. The chart below shows the weighted average of the twenty-nine models for the one-month-ahead equity risk premium, with the weights selected so that this single measure explains as much of the variability across models as possible (for the geeks: it is the first principal component). The value of 5.4 percent for December 2012 is about as high as it’s ever been. The previous two peaks correspond to November 1974 and January 2009. Those were dicey times. By the end of 1974, we had just experienced the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and had a terrible case of stagflation. January 2009 is fresher in our memory. Following the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the upheaval in financial markets, the economy had just shed almost 600,000 jobs in one month and was in its deepest recession since the 1930s. It is difficult to argue that we’re living in rosy times, but we are surely in better shape now than then.
The next chart shows a comparison between those two episodes and today. For 1974 and 2009, the green and red lines show that the equity risk premium was high at the one-month horizon, but was decreasing at longer and longer horizons. Market expectations were that at a four-year horizon the equity risk premium would return to its usual level (the black line displays the average levels over the last fifty years). In contrast, the blue line shows that the equity risk premium today is high irrespective of investment horizon.
Very cool tool from ETF Database that allows you to select the least expensive way to express nearly any sector or style investment, with both lowest internal expense ratio and the median cost in that particular space. (Let me know if they missed any and I will inform ETF Database of the omission) Cheapest…Read More
Is it possible that a company that grew to be the dominant axe in Technology, became the largest capitalization firm in the world, and created many new categories of products, is still misunderstood by Wall Street and the Financial Press? The short answer is yes. Apple (AAPL) remains an enigma to much of the Street….Read More