Posts filed under “Valuation”

A Year-To-Date Look At The World

A Year-To-Date Look At The World
Click to enlarge

Source: All Star Charts

 

 

The chart above, from JC, shows how the world has been doing since the start of the year.

I can only think of three possible future outcomes, from best to worst:

1. Rally! The rest of the world bottoms, reverses, then gets pulled higher by the US and Japan. China and India resume their torrid growth.
2. Meh! The US & Japan soften a little, the rest of the world improves a bit, we muddle through.
3. Look out Below!  The rest of the world drags US & Japan down.

These divergences tend to not last very long . . .

Category: Earnings, Economy, Markets, Valuation

Update: Rotation, Gold and Markets

A quick note on some of our commentary in April — it has been an interesting month for TBP. On April 9th, I mentioned that the Great Rotation theme was incorrect: It was not stocks into bonds, as is so commonly claimed. Rather, it was a New Great Rotation: Commodities into Bonds. Since then, Bond…Read More

Category: Gold & Precious Metals, Valuation, Weblogs

Markets Rebound as Gold Recovers

Click for video

Source: BNN

Category: Gold & Precious Metals, Media, Valuation, Video

12 Rules of Goldbuggery

Yesterday morning, I mentioned the extent of cognitive dissonance surrounding the Gold was surprising (What Are Gold’s Fundamentals?). The reaction to Gold’s crash has produced some astonishing rationalizations. The refusal to acknowledge basic trading facts leads us to recognize that Gold bugs and traders have very specific rules that they MUST follow. These social conventions…Read More

Category: Gold & Precious Metals, Humor, Psychology, Rules, Valuation

What Are Gold's Fundamentals ?

In a piece published in Barrons.com’s on Friday (Is Gold Nearing Capitulation?) the selloff in gold was described as “a contrarian’s dream scenario.” John Hathaway of Tocqueville Funds wrote in Barron’s: “The evidence shows strong macro fundamentals for gold, investor sentiment at a negative extreme and compelling valuations in the mining shares. It seems like…Read More

Category: Gold & Precious Metals, Really, really bad calls, Trading, Valuation

What Are Gold’s Fundamentals ?

In a piece published in Barrons.com’s on Friday (Is Gold Nearing Capitulation?) the selloff in gold was described as “a contrarian’s dream scenario.” John Hathaway of Tocqueville Funds wrote in Barron’s: “The evidence shows strong macro fundamentals for gold, investor sentiment at a negative extreme and compelling valuations in the mining shares. It seems like…Read More

Category: Gold & Precious Metals, Really, really bad calls, Trading, Valuation

Broad Market Lagged Price to Earnings Ratio

Click to enlarge Source: BEA, Federal Reserve Board, Wilshire Associates, J.P. Morgan Asset Management March 31, 2013

Category: Investing, Valuation

Sequestration Impact on Top 10 US Military Contractors

click for larger graphic

 

 

Here’s a little surprise: The top military contractors have all been doing pretty well since Sequestration hit.

I know what you’re thinking: They already got hit in anticipation of Sequestration. Only they didn’t.

Boeing (BA) and Oshkosh OSK are near 52 week highs, while United Technologies (UTX) and McKesson (MCK) 20% are at all time highs. (Table below)

So much for the impact of these government cutbacks on Military contractors . . .

 

See also:
Chuck Hagel on defense budget cuts under sequestration: ‘We’re adjusting to the realities’ (NBC)

The case for the sequester’s defense cuts (WonkBlog)

McKeon ‘Very Concerned’ About Sequester’s Military Impact  (Washington Wire)

 

 

Read More

Category: Markets, Trading, Valuation

Discuss: Is Anything Cheap?

click for larger graphic     All of the major markets have had a huge run off of the lows (though they are barely flat since the 07 peaks). What does this mean? Are markets too expensive, or are they better priced than last time? What say ye?     Source: Is Anything Cheap? JASON…Read More

Category: Digital Media, Investing, Valuation

Why Investors Should Ignore Politics & Economics

> My Sunday Washington Post column this week looks at two of the major topics of financial news – Politics & Economics. The column draws the counter-intuitive conclusion that these aspects of daily life are mostly meaningless to investors much of the time. Under the headline Voters should pay attention to politics. Investors should ignore it,…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Psychology, Valuation