Posts filed under “Valuation”
JP Morgan observes: “Shiller P/E shows the market to be overvalued, but not as extreme if you use the NIPA data.”
I’ve never used the NIPA data, so I have no real opinion on it. The two charts look directionally similar, but different in terms of magnitude.
For those of you bulls in search of some valuation confirmation bias, NIPA is your best bet.
Washington Reset: Investing in the Wake of the Shutdown
Dr. David Kelly Chief Global Strategist
J.P. Morgan Funds October 30, 2013
Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio click for ginormous chart Source: Bloomberg Robert J. Shiller, a co-winner of this year’s Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences says US stocks are expensive. They are the most expensive relative to earnings they have been in more than five years — since the lows follwoing the great collapse…Read More
Whipsaw David R. Kotok Cumberland Advisors, October 13, 2013 A whipsaw is a “long, narrowing, tapering ripsaw, usually set in a frame and worked by one or two persons.” Webster’s Unabridged Dictionary, second edition. What a play on words. “Long,” as in, we are now passing two weeks of shutdown. Different scenarios take…Read More
Shiller P/E Bottoms Coincide with Major Lows, Downtrend Breaks Precede Rallies Click for ginormous chart Source: Merrill Lynch Nice chart from Stephen Suttmeier & Co looking at how the Shiller P/E ratio compares to regular P/E at major lows, downtrend breaks, and before rallies: The good news is that secular trading ranges lead to…Read More
Click to enlarge Shorter Dave Wilson: Emerging markets have stunk the joint up. The longer version looks at some of the new ETFs that seek to shore up performance of emerging-market stocks by dropping the BRIC part of EM: -The four-country BRIC indicator has slipped 15 percent, with Brazilian stocks leading the decline. -Beyond…Read More
More fun with price-to-earnings ratios: Earlier this month, we looked at the question of whether Stocks were Cheap or Expensive. That was a follow up to our glance at how much Earnings and Equities had rallied off the 2009 lows. The problem is the many ways we can define earnings-per-share. Do we use analysts’ forward…Read More
Click to enlarge Source: BofA Merrill Lynch US Equity & US Quant Strategy Merrill Lynch’s quant team looked at 15 metrics* that measure equity valuation (above). Their conclusion? Stocks are not overvalued; indeed, by most metrics, they are fairly valued. Key bullet points: • S&P 500 has been playing catch up to other…Read More
click for larger graphic Source: Merrill Lynch Research We interrupt the upcoming economic apocalypse and market collapse for this surprising message. Earnings are being revised higher, as are Revenues as well. Merrill Lynch, who tracks these sorts of things, notes that the latest revised expectations for Q2 are “1.3% higher than they were…Read More
Readying for Financial Bubbles to Burst By Andy Xie Caixin 07.29.2013 Small troubles regarding trust products and the property market will be worth enduring if major economic gains can be made Some financial accidents, e.g., trust products defaulting, may occur in the coming months. Their impact on the real economy will be limited….Read More