Posts filed under “Valuation”

HP is “Epitome of a Value Trap”

Source: HP Is “the Epitome of a Value Trap” After “Embarrassing Debacle”: Ritholtz

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Category: Valuation, Video

Timing the Market ?

Brett Arends has an interesting article over the weekend about timing the market: It’s Time to Time the Market. After giving the usual reasons why market timing doesn’t work, he mentions an approach that is similar to my own: Using valuation and sentiment to make tactical adjustments (Incidentally, “Tactical” is the new buzzword amongst brokers…Read More

Category: Federal Reserve, Investing, Markets, Valuation

Microsoft versus Google IPO Performance, Valuation

Click to enlarge: Source: Bloomberg   Fascinating comparison between Google and Microsoft gains since their IPOs from Dave Wilson. Earlier this month, Google managed to slip past Mister Softee in terms of market cap  (MSFT is now $244.8B vs GOOG $243.56B). Microsoft Corp.’s stock-market performance during its first eight years as a public company far surpassed Google. MSFT…Read More

Category: IPOs, Technology, Valuation

QOTD: What Do You Call a Stock Down 90%?

I love this joke/quote from David Einhorn:   “What do you call a stock that’s down 90%? A stock that was down 80% and then got cut in half.”   Remember that the next time someone exhorts you to buy a stock because it has gotten shellacked . . . Hat tip Josh

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Valuation

Ritholtz vs Siegel on SFTLR

Source: Yahoo

Part II coming later today

Category: Asset Allocation, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Investing, Valuation, Video

Earnings Life Cycle & the Value Trap

Fascinating set of cycle charts from Merrill looking at earnings, and how being too early when timing value stock purchases is even worse than being too late!   Earnings Life Cycle Click to enlarge: Merrill explains: “Value traps are industries that fall into the portion of the earnings expectation life cycle labeled Bad Value. These…Read More

Category: Cycles, Psychology, Valuation

Sleepwalking Toward a Precipice – Part 3

Category: Investing, Think Tank, Valuation

Barron’s Covers Story: Facebook Is Worth $15

  My disdain for Facebook’s valuation is (clearly) no longer an outlier perspective. When the cover of Barron’s declares FB to be worth “about $15,” it means that this has become fairly uncontroversial viewpoint. The table below is very much along the lines of what I discussed previously (here and here).     Table comparing…Read More

Category: Valuation, Web/Tech

Is Gold Cheap or Expensive? Look to China & India

Click to enlarge: Source: Bloomberg   Is Gold cheap? Pricey? Somewhere in between? I have a hard time answering that question because I have no frame of reference. With equities, I could look at earnings and/or dividends, sales, book value, etc. to determine relative valuation. With bonds, interest rate, credit rating (and whether its callable)…Read More

Category: Gold & Precious Metals, Inflation, Valuation

Did the Government Bailouts Work & at What Cost?

There has been a steady drumbeat from the Treasury Department as to what “successful investments” the bailouts of Wall Street have been. This morning I’d like to broadly consider that by discussing a few key points that I have yet to see addressed. Namely, that these were not investments, but rather they were systemic rescues….Read More

Category: Bailouts, Really, really bad calls, Valuation