Posts filed under “Video”

Hennecke: “We expect a depression in the United States”

"We expect a depression in the United States. We expect a depression, very possibly, also in Europe." –Martin Hennecke

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Martin_hennecke

Martin Hennecke

Excerpt:

The end result of the global economic slowdown may be the U.S. announcing national bankruptcy as the government cannot afford the bailouts that it promised and the market will not bail out the government, Martin Hennecke, senior manager of private clients at Tyche, told CNBC on Thursday.

"We expect a depression in the United States. We expect a depression, very possibly, also in Europe," Hennecke said on "Worldwide Exchange."

The estimated $300 billion cost of the Fannie/Freddie bailout will probably be considered as a loss that the government will have to take, therefore passing it on to taxpayers, he explained.

"We already have $3 trillion of debt, as far as the U.S. government is concerned. These debt figures across the U.S. economy are rising very sharply."

When the government can no longer pass the United States’ "immense debt" on to taxpayers, it will turn to the holders of U.S. dollars, leading to the eventual downfall of the currency, Hennecke said.

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Source:
Bailouts Will Push US into Depression: Manager   
CNBC.com | 11 Sep 2008 | 09:11 AM ET   
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26656750/site/14081545/

Category: Economy, Video

Hennecke: “We expect a depression in the United States”

"We expect a depression in the United States. We expect a depression, very possibly, also in Europe." –Martin Hennecke

>
click for video
Martin_hennecke

Martin Hennecke

Excerpt:

The end result of the global economic slowdown may be the U.S. announcing national bankruptcy as the government cannot afford the bailouts that it promised and the market will not bail out the government, Martin Hennecke, senior manager of private clients at Tyche, told CNBC on Thursday.

"We expect a depression in the United States. We expect a depression, very possibly, also in Europe," Hennecke said on "Worldwide Exchange."

The estimated $300 billion cost of the Fannie/Freddie bailout will probably be considered as a loss that the government will have to take, therefore passing it on to taxpayers, he explained.

"We already have $3 trillion of debt, as far as the U.S. government is concerned. These debt figures across the U.S. economy are rising very sharply."

When the government can no longer pass the United States’ "immense debt" on to taxpayers, it will turn to the holders of U.S. dollars, leading to the eventual downfall of the currency, Hennecke said.

>

Source:
Bailouts Will Push US into Depression: Manager   
CNBC.com | 11 Sep 2008 | 09:11 AM ET   
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26656750/site/14081545/

Category: Economy, Video

Breakouts/Breakdowns on Fast Money (9/10/08)

Here is yesterday’s featured segment, Breakouts & Breakdowns on Fast Money with Dylan Ratigan.

Here is last night’s episode:
Fast_money_bb

Breakouts & Breakdowns:  An outlook on PNY and NEM, with the Fast Money traders

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The name Fusion is supposed reflect
that we use both technical and fundamental data points.

The
metrics we track are Trend (short, medium, and long term), Money
Flow
(stock and group), Short interest (relative to
float), Institutional Ownership, (we crunch it ourselves between official
quarterly releases),
Earnings Trend (are they still ramping, plateau-ing,
reversing or falling), and
Forecast Earnings Surprise. 

The last
metric is quite fascinating. we take the top analysts on any name in terms of
their recent earnings forecast record. When they are an outlier against the rest
of the analyst community, we often — about ~68% of the time — see an earnigns
surprise. I.E., when the top guy is bearish, and the rest of the dead fish are
bullish, you tend to see an downside surprise (and vice verse). Think Bove and
Whitney versus the geniuses who downgraded Lehman today.
When we get towards erarnings season, I’ll pull a few
names. Its pretty wild stuff. 
 

Our projected holding period is 3
months, plus or minus — but we hold longer if working (i.e., we are still short AIG from last year),
and always use stop losses when they are not working (i.e., covered the short in RIMM for a 5% hit).

Category: Quantitative, Trading, Video

One Sees Signs of U.S. Recovery by Year End, One Doesn’t: Video

That Bloomberg appearance I did on Friday finally showed up online. Its mostly a macro discussion on the economy and unemployment.

Note this was prior to any of the Fannie/Freddie news.

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click for Video

Bloomberg_br_video

Source: Bloomberg

Barry Ritholtz, chief executive officer of Fusion IQ, and Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., talk with Bloomberg’s Kathleen Hays about the performance of the U.S. stock market, the August employment report released today and outlook for the economy. The country lost 84,000 jobs last month, more than forecast and the unemployment rate climbed to a five-year high of 6.1 percent, a sign that the economic slowdown is worsening two months before Americans elect their next president.

00:00 Ritholtz: equity market performance
01:02 Kasman: jobs report; economic outlook
02:44 Ritholtz: impact of economic growth on stocks
04:19 Kasman: credit markets; inflation outlook
06:07 Ritholtz: factors that could affect stocks

Running time 07:26

Category: Media, Video

One Sees Signs of U.S. Recovery by Year End, One Doesn’t: Video

That Bloomberg appearance I did on Friday finally showed up online. Its mostly a macro discussion on the economy and unemployment.

Note this was prior to any of the Fannie/Freddie news.

>

click for Video

Bloomberg_br_video

Source: Bloomberg

Barry Ritholtz, chief executive officer of Fusion IQ, and Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., talk with Bloomberg’s Kathleen Hays about the performance of the U.S. stock market, the August employment report released today and outlook for the economy. The country lost 84,000 jobs last month, more than forecast and the unemployment rate climbed to a five-year high of 6.1 percent, a sign that the economic slowdown is worsening two months before Americans elect their next president.

00:00 Ritholtz: equity market performance
01:02 Kasman: jobs report; economic outlook
02:44 Ritholtz: impact of economic growth on stocks
04:19 Kasman: credit markets; inflation outlook
06:07 Ritholtz: factors that could affect stocks

Running time 07:26

Category: Media, Video

Ackman on Freddie, Fannie bailout

Ackman on the GSE Bailout

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Ackman 

Wed. Sept. 10 2008 | 8:06 AM[12:29]

Perspectives on Lehman, Fannie & Freddie, with Bill Ackman, Pershing Square Capital Management managing principal

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Financial Crisis

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Ackman_faber_2

Wed. Sept. 10 2008 | 8:35 AM[05:06]

Discussing the ensuing financial crisis and the risk of global recession, with Bill Ackman, Pershing Square Capital Management; Nouriel Roub…

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Parting Shots

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Ackman_roubini

Wed. Sept. 10 2008 | 8:57 AM[02:23]

Final thoughts, with Bill Ackman, Pershing Sqare Capital Management and Nouriel Roubini, RGEMonitor.com

Category: Bailouts, Credit, Video

Fusion IQ on Fast Money (9/9/08)

I am pleased to announce that my day job (FusionIQ) is now a featured segment on Fast Money with Dylan Ratigan.

The segment is called Breakouts & Breakdowns

Here is last night’s episode:
Fast_money_bb

Breakouts & Breakdowns:  An outlook on FDO and JOYG, with the Fast Money traders

Category: Quantitative, Video

Roubini on CNBC

Check out Nouriel on CNBC this morning — he is guest hosting, and makes so much sense it makes the rest of the guest list look almost silly.

My boy Chris Whalen also had a good spot, worth checking out.

Fannie, Freddie & Financials

Chris_whalen

The rescue
shouldn’t distract investors from the present peril of financials, says Chris
Walen, Institutional Risk Analytics co-founder/managing director

The Financial Development Report   

Kevin_steinberg_world_economic_foru

A look at
the World Economic Forum’s report with U.S. leading the rankings and UK second.
Details with Kevin Steinberg, World Economic Forum COO and Nouriel Roubini,
REGMonitor.com

Category: Credit, Financial Press, Valuation, Video

Nice discussion via Charlie Rose: Floyd Norris, Mohamed El-Erian, Gretchen Morgenson, Nouriel Roubini discuss the world’s biggest bailout: Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac

 

Hat tip, Paul!

Category: Bailouts, Credit, Video

That Rose, Fannie Mae

Amusing parody:

Hat tip immobilienblasen

Category: Credit, Real Estate, Video