Posts filed under “Video”
I have an interesting discussion on Housing later this week, but for now, let’s look at this Yahoo video n another bottom call in Housing. (Note that the charts discussed are linked below)
Here are the relevant charts regarding Home Sale and Rental ratios, as well as Median Income and Home prices.
Median New Home Prices vs Median Household Disposable Income
Home Price Appreciation vs CPI – Rent
Revisiting Housing Seasonality & the Perennial Bottom Callers (July 1008)
A Bottom in Housing? You’ve Got to Be Kidding
Yahoo Tech Ticker Aug 13, 2008 07:30am EDT
Seiders seems to be rather reasonable, he is looking for modest starts tomorrow.
Note that he actually is looking for starts to stay low to help eliminate supply — compare his level of honesty and suitable caution versus NAR . . .
Excerpt from Bloomberg:
Confidence among U.S. homebuilders was unchanged in August at a record low, signaling there is no relief in sight from the worst housing slump in a quarter century.
The National Association of Homebuilders/Wells Fargo sentiment index held at 16 for a second month, the Washington- based group said today. Readings under 50 mean most respondents view conditions as poor.
Builders are delaying projects as sales drop, foreclosures throw more houses on the market and prices tumble. Job losses, stricter lending rules and growing buyer pessimism indicate builders will need to cut prices further to stimulate demand.
The NAHB index of buyer traffic was unchanged at a record low of 12 for a second month. The measure represents the number of prospective buyers visiting properties.
The increase in two of the three components "may be an indication that we are nearing the bottom of the long downswing in new-home sales,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders in a statement. "Our current forecast shows stabilization of sales during the second half of this year, followed by solid recovery in 2009 and beyond.”
Sentiment improved in two of four regions. It rose to 16 from 14 in the Northeast, and to 14 from 10 in the Midwest. The index was unchanged at 20 in the South and fell to 11 from 14 in the West.
Other housing measures continue to show weakness. Total single-family home sales in June were down 37 percent from a peak reached in July 2005, the biggest drop since 1982. Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell 15.8 percent in May from a year earlier, the biggest decline since records began seven years ago.
US Builder Confidence Index Unchanged at Record Low
Bloomberg Aug. 18 2008
Another fun discussion with Henry. As you can see, I have trouble forming an opinion . . .
Note: I have a great deal of respect for Tom Brown — like Dick Bove, another smart guy I hate being on the opposite side of a trade from — but he has simply been way too early in his bottom calls.
Street Fight: Analysts Battle Over the Bottom in Financials
Yahoo, August 12, 2008
RBS slumps to one of biggest losses in UK banking history
Telegraph, 10:35am BST 08/08/20081
Wachovia boosts loss to $9.11 bln, cuts more jobs
Reuters Aug 11, 2008 7:02pm EDT
Michael Price Shorts Citigroup, Sees Few Banks to Buy
Bloomberg, Aug. 12 2008
David Goldman, a portfolio strategist at Asteri Capital, talks about the outlook for the U.S. financial-services industry, the impact of the hedge-fund model on market volatility and his investment advice.
00:00 U.S. economy, consumers, savings
01:24 Hedge-fund model, volatility, "catastrophe"
04:10 Banking volatility, credit crisis outlook
08:20 Hedge fund vs. private equity model: AIG
09:55 Merrill’s balance sheet; mortgage securities
12:42 Off-balance-sheet entities; bank solvencies
15:59 Outlook for banking illiquidity, hedge funds
18:06 Expense to tax payers; investment advice
Running time 20:03
Asteri’s Goldman Says Credit Crisis `Only Now Beginning’: Audio
Bloomberg, August 13, 2008 19:24 EDT
I had fun doing this interview with Henry Blodget of Yahoo Tech Ticker and SAI:
Note: I don’t say we have to go below 10,000, but only that its possible. And I pretty much say that these forecasts are only guesses.
The last time I was on was July 15th, announcing that we were covering shorts, and calling for a bear market bounce . . .
Sucker’s Rally Alert: Dow Going Below 10,000
Yahoo Tech Ticker, Aug 12, 2008 03:31pm EDT
Wild Times on Wall Street: What Now for Investors?
Yahoo Tech Ticker, Jul 15, 2008 07:00am EDT
Zillow’s Rascoff Says Housing Market Not at Bottom Yet
Running time 04:37
Spencer Rascoff, chief financial officer of Zillow.com, talks about the outlook for the U.S. housing market. Almost one-third of U.S. homeowners who bought in the last five years now owe more on their mortgages than their properties are worth, according to Zillow, an Internet provider of home valuations.
00:00 Housing outlook, home sellers’ expectations
01:58 Housing market by region; advice to buyers
03:52 Real estate is "still…good asset class."
Zillow’s Rascoff Says Housing Market Not at Bottom Yet: Video
Bloomberg, August 12, 2008 10:10 EDT
One Third of New Owners Owe More Than House Is Worth
Bloomberg, Aug. 12 2008