Posts filed under “Video”
Barron’s: Unfortunately for the rest of us, you have a pretty good track record. How much more misery lies ahead?
Roubini: We are in the second inning of a severe, protracted recession, which started in the first quarter of this year and is going to last at least 18 months, through the middle of next year. A systemic banking crisis will go on for awhile, with hundreds of banks going belly up.
Which banks, specifically, will fail?
I don’t want to name names, but many, given the housing bust, will become insolvent. Their losses are mounting because they have written down only their subprime loans so far. They haven’t started writing down most of their consumer-credit losses, and reserves for losses are much less than they should have been. The banks are playing all sorts of accounting gimmicks not to recognize them. There are hundreds of millions of dollars outstanding in home-equity loans that eventually could be worth zero, too.
Which forces [on the consumer} for instance?
The U.S. consumer is shopped out and saving less. Debt to disposable income has risen to 140% from 100% in 2000. Hit by falling home prices, the consumer no longer can use his house as an ATM machine. The stock market is falling and (issuance of) home-equity loans (has) collapsed. We have a credit crunch in mortgages, and gas is around $4 a gallon. Everyone says, ‘yeah, that’s true, but as long as there is job generation there is going to be income generation and people are going to spend.’ But for seven months in a row, employment in the private sector has fallen.
The most worrisome thing is that in spite of the rebates, retail sales in June were up only 0.1%. In real terms, they were down. If people were not spending their rebate checks in June, what will happen when there are no more checks?
Video is here
Yes, That’s $2 Trillion of Debt-Related Losses
ROBIN GOLDWYN BLUMENTHAL
INTERVIEW: Nouriel Roubini, Economist and Professor, New York University
Barron’s AUGUST 4, 2008
David Weidner’s new column (out tomorrow) proposes outlawing the sale of any stocks for a loss.
Cox: But I was getting a pedicure the other day and I thought, ‘Why not just short selling?’ What about ALL selling?’ Why not make a rule that prohibits selling a stock for a price lower than the last trade. We’d stop losses altogether. Everyone would make a profit. Unlike some of these other measures you’ve heard today, it wouldn’t cost taxpayers a penny. So, what do you think of the Cox No-Loss Sale rule?
The no-loss sell rule
What if we tried a new strategy in the next six months?
MarketWatch, 12:01 a.m. EDT July 31, 2008
David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee at Standard and Poor’s, discusses the latest S&P/Case Shiller home-price index, which showed price declines continued to worsen in May:
Home Prices In May Took A Steep Fall
WSJ, July 30, 2008
U.S. stocks fell and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 200 points for the second time in three days after the International Monetary Fund said there is no end in sight to the housing slump.
Running time 02:19
U.S. Stocks Tumble Led by Banks on IMF’s Housing Outlook:
Bloomberg, July 28 2008
William Poole, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St.
Louis, talks about Standard & Poor’s proposed downgrade of Fannie
Mae and Freddie Mac bonds, June’s durable goods and new homes data
released today, and the outlook for legislation to aid the hobbled
00:00 Possible S&P action on Freddie, Fannie bonds
01:00 Economic indicators of durable goods report
02:28 Housing bill; Fannie, Freddie lobbying
04:15 Need for Fannie, Freddie to be private firms
05:11 Access to Fed discount window; oil prices
06:54 "Balancing act" of Fed on inflation, economy
07:52 Lobbying restrictions; credit rating position
09:44 Market consequence of Fannie, Freddie fall
11:09 Paulson "back-stop" plan "essential"
Running time 12:11
Bloomberg, July 25 2008
Carnegie Mellon Professor Randy Pausch (Oct. 23, 1960 – July 25, 2008) gave his last lecture at the university Sept. 18, 2007, before a packed McConomy Auditorium. In his moving presentation, "Really Achieving Your Childhood Dreams," Pausch talked about his lessons learned and gave advice to students on how to achieve their own career and personal goals.
Randy finally lost his battle to cancer early Friday morning . . .
For more, visit www.cmu.edu/randyslecture.
Randy Pausch, Final Lecture
Randy Pausch Reflects
Investor Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, talks about the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the global economy, and the outlook for stocks and commodities. Faber said Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae should close down their business or split into private companies and not get government aid.
00:00 "The world is in recession already."
01:35 Earnings to "decelerate"; technology stocks
02:59 Need to close down or split Fannie, Freddie
05:11 Concerns about technology stocks
05:41 S&P 500 forecast; outlook for interest rates
07:50 "The Fed is totally ineffective."
08:39 Outlook for oil prices, commodity markets
10:35 Credit crunch, impact on economy
11:24 Overseas interest in U.S. assets; China
13:46 U.S. resource companies "attractive" to Asia
14:47 Worst case: "colossal bust with inflation"
Faber Says Fannie, Freddie Should Split Up, Not Get Aid
Bloomberg, July 23, 2008 07:22 EDT
I’m not sure this really explains what happened.
Any night I’ve been out in the city — last night was Porter House, and Monday was Kellari Taverna — Wall Street appeared to be enjoying a hearty supper and a glass of wine, but I didn’t see any evidence of drunken behavior.
Of course, if your entire world view is predicated on the belief that tax cuts cure all ills, and that any sort of regulatory supervision — even of FDIC insured banks by the Federal Reserve — is an evil to be avoided, well, then, it might look like drunkenness to you.
To everyone else, it merely looks like an incompetent administration executing an ill thought out philosophy, and poorly at that.