Posts filed under “Video”
Tobias Merath, a commodity analyst at Credit Suisse Group, talks with Bloomberg’s Bernard Lo and Haslinda Amin in Singapore about the impact of declining demand, falling prices and the global economic slowdown on commodity markets.
click for video
00:00 Demand decline, global slowdown; speculation
03:13 Soft commodities, "correction not collapse"
Running time 05:52
Merath Says Commodities Drop `Correction not Collapse’: Video
Bloomberg, Aug. 6 2008
The whole "anonymous" author goes public in September strikes me as schtick — a book publishing publicity stunt.
However, getting the manuscript is quite the coup for Liz. Any Bear insider
story is worth pursuing, as we still only have partial knowledge of
what really happened, and how things went so wrong.
I love Liz, but if you are going to mention that a firm had $17 Billion in cash, then you have to also mention this capital base was leveraged 35X that amount in liabilities. Its called double entry book keeping for a reason.
One last note — Fox has been stoking the "rumor monger" aspect of the Bear/Lehman story. I am not a believer in this line of thought — rumors cannot bring real companies, and the biggest player in the Residential Mortgage Back Securities sector made a big bad bet that went bust. I am no defender of CNBC, and invariably disagree with Dennis, Charlie and Larry. To me, the Vanity Fair reportage blaming CNBC was silly, and Fox picking up the same story line — that rumors brought down Bear Stearns — does not serve its viewers. Its old school yellow journalism at its finest.
Regardless, this will be worth watching to see what develops…
Taleb’s top life tips
1. Scepticism is effortful and costly. It is better to be sceptical about matters of large consequences, and be imperfect, foolish and human in the small and the aesthetic.
2. Go to parties. You can’t even start to know what you may find on the envelope of serendipity. If you suffer from agoraphobia, send colleagues.
3. It’s not a good idea to take a forecast from someone wearing a tie. If possible, tease people who take themselves and their knowledge too seriously.
4. Wear your best for your execution and stand dignified. Your last recourse against randomness is how you act — if you can’t control outcomes, you can control the elegance of your behaviour. You will always have the last word.
5. Don’t disturb complicated systems that have been around for a very long time. We don’t understand their logic. Don’t pollute the planet. Leave it the way we found it, regardless of scientific ‘evidence’.
6. Learn to fail with pride — and do so fast and cleanly. Maximise trial and error — by mastering the error part.
7. Avoid losers. If you hear someone use the words ‘impossible’, ‘never’, ‘too difficult’ too often, drop him or her from your social network. Never take ‘no’ for an answer (conversely, take most ‘yeses’ as ‘most probably’).
8. Don’t read newspapers for the news (just for the gossip and, of course, profiles of authors). The best filter to know if the news matters is if you hear it in cafes, restaurants… or (again) parties.
9. Hard work will get you a professorship or a BMW. You need both work and luck for a Booker, a Nobel or a private jet.
10. Answer e-mails from junior people before more senior ones. Junior people have further to go and tend to remember who slighted them.
click for video
Nassim Nicholas Taleb: the prophet of boom and doom
The Sunday Times, June 1, 2008
Barron’s: Unfortunately for the rest of us, you have a pretty good track record. How much more misery lies ahead?
Roubini: We are in the second inning of a severe, protracted recession, which started in the first quarter of this year and is going to last at least 18 months, through the middle of next year. A systemic banking crisis will go on for awhile, with hundreds of banks going belly up.
Which banks, specifically, will fail?
I don’t want to name names, but many, given the housing bust, will become insolvent. Their losses are mounting because they have written down only their subprime loans so far. They haven’t started writing down most of their consumer-credit losses, and reserves for losses are much less than they should have been. The banks are playing all sorts of accounting gimmicks not to recognize them. There are hundreds of millions of dollars outstanding in home-equity loans that eventually could be worth zero, too.
Which forces [on the consumer} for instance?
The U.S. consumer is shopped out and saving less. Debt to disposable income has risen to 140% from 100% in 2000. Hit by falling home prices, the consumer no longer can use his house as an ATM machine. The stock market is falling and (issuance of) home-equity loans (has) collapsed. We have a credit crunch in mortgages, and gas is around $4 a gallon. Everyone says, ‘yeah, that’s true, but as long as there is job generation there is going to be income generation and people are going to spend.’ But for seven months in a row, employment in the private sector has fallen.
The most worrisome thing is that in spite of the rebates, retail sales in June were up only 0.1%. In real terms, they were down. If people were not spending their rebate checks in June, what will happen when there are no more checks?
Video is here
Yes, That’s $2 Trillion of Debt-Related Losses
ROBIN GOLDWYN BLUMENTHAL
INTERVIEW: Nouriel Roubini, Economist and Professor, New York University
Barron’s AUGUST 4, 2008
David Weidner’s new column (out tomorrow) proposes outlawing the sale of any stocks for a loss.
Cox: But I was getting a pedicure the other day and I thought, ‘Why not just short selling?’ What about ALL selling?’ Why not make a rule that prohibits selling a stock for a price lower than the last trade. We’d stop losses altogether. Everyone would make a profit. Unlike some of these other measures you’ve heard today, it wouldn’t cost taxpayers a penny. So, what do you think of the Cox No-Loss Sale rule?
The no-loss sell rule
What if we tried a new strategy in the next six months?
MarketWatch, 12:01 a.m. EDT July 31, 2008
David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee at Standard and Poor’s, discusses the latest S&P/Case Shiller home-price index, which showed price declines continued to worsen in May:
Home Prices In May Took A Steep Fall
WSJ, July 30, 2008
U.S. stocks fell and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 200 points for the second time in three days after the International Monetary Fund said there is no end in sight to the housing slump.
Running time 02:19
U.S. Stocks Tumble Led by Banks on IMF’s Housing Outlook:
Bloomberg, July 28 2008