Posts filed under “Wages & Income”

States and Cities Impact On GDP

We get the first revision of GDP tomorrow morning at 8:30am. The export portion of GDP showed big improvement, thanks to the still
free-falling dollar. Unless the data in everything else fell apart,
that should bump GDP up to 1.0 – 1.25% (ex-inflation).

While that is brewing, it might be interesting to look at how States & Cities expenditures are doing. The State and Local Government consumption, expenditures and investment account for ~12.5% of GDP.

Consider the Personal Income tax, Corporate tax, Sales tax, and total Tax Revenue for a State:

1) State Income generally peaked in 2005, and has been decelerating since;
2) Only State Corporate tax receipts has turned negative on a YoY basis;
3) During the Recession of 2001, negative year over year revenue lasted as little as 1 quarter (sales tax) to 8 quarters (personal income tax);

If this cycle is even remotely similar to the mild recession of 2001, we are still in the first or second innings.

The chart below provides some insight:
click for ginormous chart

chart by Jake

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Taxes and Policy, Wages & Income

Companies Cutting Hours Aggressively

Category: Economy, Employment, Wages & Income

Withholding Tax Update: 23-Month Low

We have previously reviewed the Uncle Sam’s withholding tax data as a read into the overall health of the economy. The most recent data point (March 13) shows W/H tax reaching a 23 month low. But we don’t like to rely on any single data point, especially one from a volatile series.  Instead, look at…Read More

Category: Economy, Taxes and Policy, Wages & Income

Advice for Billionaires on Getting Things Done

Category: Wages & Income


Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Wages & Income

Bracing for NFP Day

Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more: The monthly NonFarm Payroll report rolls out today, and the consensus is none too cheerful: Median estimates of 82 economists surveyed by Bloomberg for April 2008 is for a job loss of -75,000 (Dow Jones had -85,000). Estimates ranged from -150,000 to -18,000. None of the…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment, Wages & Income

Creating Fake Alpha

Category: Corporate Management, Derivatives, Wages & Income

UBS $37B Write Down, Part II: Compensation

Category: Corporate Management, Derivatives, Wages & Income

Middle Class Squeeze

Category: Employment, Inflation, Wages & Income

Hedge Fund Compensation

Category: Corporate Management, Wages & Income