Posts filed under “Wages & Income”
We get the first revision of GDP tomorrow morning at 8:30am. The export portion of GDP showed big improvement, thanks to the still
free-falling dollar. Unless the data in everything else fell apart,
that should bump GDP up to 1.0 – 1.25% (ex-inflation).
While that is brewing, it might be interesting to look at how States & Cities expenditures are doing. The State and Local Government consumption, expenditures and investment account for ~12.5% of GDP.
Consider the Personal Income tax, Corporate tax, Sales tax, and total Tax Revenue for a State:
1) State Income generally peaked in 2005, and has been decelerating since;
2) Only State Corporate tax receipts has turned negative on a YoY basis;
3) During the Recession of 2001, negative year over year revenue lasted as little as 1 quarter (sales tax) to 8 quarters (personal income tax);
If this cycle is even remotely similar to the mild recession of 2001, we are still in the first or second innings.
chart by Jake
We have previously reviewed the Uncle Sam’s withholding tax data as a read into the overall health of the economy. The most recent data point (March 13) shows W/H tax reaching a 23 month low. But we don’t like to rely on any single data point, especially one from a volatile series. Instead, look at…Read More
Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more: The monthly NonFarm Payroll report rolls out today, and the consensus is none too cheerful: Median estimates of 82 economists surveyed by Bloomberg for April 2008 is for a job loss of -75,000 (Dow Jones had -85,000). Estimates ranged from -150,000 to -18,000. None of the…Read More