Posts filed under “Wages & Income”

NFP Report: Unemployment Leaps to 5.5%

chart via BLS


The U.S. lost jobs for the fifth
consecutive month, as nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend down. For May 2008, -49,000. Unemployment rose by 861,000 to 8.5 million, jumping half a percent to 5.5% — the sharpest one month gain in 22 33 years. One year earlier, the jobless rate was 4.5%.

U-6, the broadest measure of Unemployment, jumped to 9.7%.

The Household survey showed employment fell by 285,000 while unemployment rose by 861,000 by the most in more than two
decades. Bloomberg described this as "signaling that the world’s largest economy is stalling."

Other noteworthy data points:

-The average workweek was unchanged at 33.7
-Average hourly earnings rose by 5 cents, or 0.3 percent, and up just 3.5% from a year earlier;
-Birth/Death model added 217k to the employed (not monthly) total  vs 174k in May ’07. (meaning, expect further revisions lower in the future)
-BLS B/D estimated an add of  42k construction jobs, 9k financial jobs — hard to believe in the current environment;
-Previous month revisions were lower by 15k;
-Unemployment rate jumped to 0.4% more than expected;
-The labor force rose, as reentrants (326,000) and new entrants (204,000) added to the labor force in May.

Expect the recent "no recession" consensus to come under additional pressure in the coming weeks. . .


June 6, 2008



CES Net Birth/Death Model

Category: Data Analysis, Employment, Wages & Income

May 2008 NFP Preview

Category: Data Analysis, Employment, Psychology, Wages & Income

Merrill’s David Rosenberg on Economy, Housing, Employment

Category: Credit, Economy, Real Estate, Wages & Income

States and Cities Impact On GDP

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Taxes and Policy, Wages & Income

Companies Cutting Hours Aggressively

Category: Economy, Employment, Wages & Income

Withholding Tax Update: 23-Month Low

We have previously reviewed the Uncle Sam’s withholding tax data as a read into the overall health of the economy. The most recent data point (March 13) shows W/H tax reaching a 23 month low. But we don’t like to rely on any single data point, especially one from a volatile series.  Instead, look at…Read More

Category: Economy, Taxes and Policy, Wages & Income

Advice for Billionaires on Getting Things Done

Category: Wages & Income


Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Wages & Income

Bracing for NFP Day

Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more: The monthly NonFarm Payroll report rolls out today, and the consensus is none too cheerful: Median estimates of 82 economists surveyed by Bloomberg for April 2008 is for a job loss of -75,000 (Dow Jones had -85,000). Estimates ranged from -150,000 to -18,000. None of the…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment, Wages & Income

Creating Fake Alpha

Category: Corporate Management, Derivatives, Wages & Income