Posts filed under “War/Defense”

Earnings Estimates Fall

If you missed John Mauldin’s weekend piece (2008: Annus Horribilis, RIP), have a look at these estimates for earnings in 2008. They started at $92 (early ’07) and came down to $48:


Not exactly confidence inspiring when it comes to stock analysts.If you want to understand why we prefer to rely on objective data rather than analysts, this is the precise reason.

On a trailing one-year basis, that puts the Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E) at over 19 as of today.  This does not make the market cheap.

And what about 2009? Again, the analysts are in a race to find the bottom.


The current projections are for $42.26 for 2009. That makes the forward P/E 22. That doesn’t look like value at all, when the historical average is closer to 15.

In 2001, as-reported earnings were $24.67. Operating earnings in 2002 were $27.57. Does anyone think the current recession will be milder than the last one? Or shorter?


2008: Annus Horribilis, RIP
John Mauldin

Category: Credit, Favorite, Federal Reserve, War/Defense

Dear Mr. Ex-KGB

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA, is director of research at Investment Management Associates in Denver, Colo., and he teaches a graduate investment class at the University of Colorado at Denver. He is the author of “Active Value Investing: Making Money in Range-Bound Markets” (Wiley 2007). ~~~ Dear Mr. Ex-KGB I’ve received so many emails about the…Read More

Category: BP Cafe, Markets, War/Defense

US Military Force Structure

One view of the force structure (UNCLASSIFIED), via a briefing originated at JFCOM.  This briefing like others should be available from the SecDEF’s office. Force Structure FY09 Beyond Publish at Scribd or explore others: Military/War History ent spending terrori us budget governm This is a USMC brief on the next coming fiscal years for them…Read More

Category: BP Cafe, Taxes and Policy, War/Defense

Geopolitical and other stuff

Vincent Farrell, Jr. is Chief Investment Officer of Soleil Securities, a New York based investment management company. Over his long career on Wall Street, he has worked for numerous distinguished firms. Mr. Farrell graduated from Princeton University in 1969 and received his M.B.A. from the Iona College Graduate School of Business in 1972. ~~~~ The…Read More

Category: BP Cafe, Politics, Retail, War/Defense

The Onion: Our long national nightmare . . .

A pretty good Onion headline:  Nation Finally Shitty Enough To Make Social Progress: Although polls going into the final weeks of October showed Sen. Obama in the lead, it remained unclear whether the failing economy, dilapidated housing market, crumbling national infrastructure, health care crisis, energy crisis, and five-year-long disastrous war in Iraq had made the…Read More

Category: Economy, Financial Press, Markets, Politics, War/Defense

Bush Approval Ratings

Nice interactive chart via WSJ on Direction of country, Iraq and the Economy: > Source: Bush Highs & Lows WSJ

Category: Data Analysis, Digital Media, Economy, Politics, War/Defense

Bailout Nation, Soviet Style: Russian Trading Halt

Category: Bailouts, Taxes and Policy, Trading, War/Defense


Category: War/Defense

War Costs, US: Revolution to Present

Category: Data Analysis, War/Defense, Web/Tech No War, Economy Expanding

Category: Economy, Financial Press, Psychology, War/Defense